In the introduction to the last Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012:
Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2009. The actual situation of this market very closely parallels the 1974-1982 time frame. While the price bottom was made in 1974,…
Added by Steven Vincent on May 15, 2013 at 3:30pm — No Comments
In the March 10 BullBear Market Report, I concluded that the US equities markets had ended the long term bear market that started in 2000 with the November 2012 low and had begun a new, secular bull market:
This report comes down on the side of concluding that indeed a new, secular Bull Market has begun. While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave…
The last BullBear Market Report concluded that:
a new, secular Bull Market began in November 2012. While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave top could come in the vicinity of the 2007 highs, evidence is mounting that the 2011-2012 period was a stealth (E) wave ending a long term triangle and that recent price breakouts and changes to the technical character of the market mark the start of a very long term Major (V) bull market...
My current analysis…Continue
One of the factors that might temper long term bullishness with regards to the current US equities market is that there currently appear to be no leading, dynamic economic growth sectors. In the early stages of a secular bull market, however, the dynamic growth sectors that will lead the advance are often unclear or unknown. The picture may be starting to clarify itself. One area that appears poised to take off and add a dynamic growth component while reducing costs throughout the economy…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on March 25, 2013 at 7:30pm — No Comments
The last BullBear Market Report explored whether the long term Bear Market that began in 2000 may have ended in November of 2012. This report comes down on the side of concluding that indeed a new, secular Bull Market has begun. While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave top could come in the vicinity of the 2007 highs, evidence is mounting that the 2011-2012 period was an (E) wave of a…Continue
Will the Deficit as a percentage of GDP get down to World War II levels by the end of the Obama Administration?
It's interesting that there has been virtually no attention paid to the forthcoming 4th quarter earnings reports. Apparently the most fundamental of fundamentals supposedly underlying the movement of stock prices is…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on January 2, 2013 at 7:00pm — No Comments
What are the long term prospects for Corn and the grains complex? Without knowing anything about the current fundamentals of the market, my take is neutral to bearish.
The monthly chart of Corn is showing a series of RSI divergences and a rising wedge pattern:Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on December 19, 2012 at 4:30pm — No Comments
Added by Steven Vincent on September 18, 2012 at 7:41pm — No Comments
Since the July 9th BullBear Market Report, the US stock market has apparently completed an ABCDE ascending triangle pattern to complete the rally off the June low. This is being confirmed by a mounting body of technical evidence which strongly suggests we have either seen the top to the rally or that it is nearby. The Introduction to the last report…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on July 24, 2012 at 3:30pm — No Comments
In spite of today's intraday reversal of some decent losses, the weight of the technical evidence continues to point towards a short to intermediate term correction which will set up a final 5th wave move to a more significant high above the 2011 highs. Buyers have continually bought even the smallest dip. This is not bullish. The market is probably exhausting short to intermediate term buying power at the top of the wave which will likely result in a deeper and longer…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on February 27, 2012 at 4:00pm — No Comments
As the S&P 500 hovers at its February 2011 high and the Dow toys with its May 2011 peak, many market participants are looking for an important top soon. While I am certainly aware of some good arguments for a new bear plunge--in fact I've been favoring a major top in the first or second quarter of 2012 myself--I think it's worthwhile to examine the body of technical evidence that indicates that a run at the former all-time highs may be in the offing.
Added by Steven Vincent on February 7, 2012 at 6:15pm — No Comments
HIGHER THAN YOU THINK, PART II
The jobs report came in better than expected and we got a pop above resistance that has held and even run throughout the day. Overbought is becoming more overbought, which is very bullish. Tape action and technical action and the overall setup tends to favor a run back to the 2007 high rather than a top soon followed by Wave E down. Here's how I…
Added by Steven Vincent on February 3, 2012 at 2:55pm — No Comments
From time to time I release the full text of my BullBear Market Report to the general public. This edition from September 19, 2011 calls the subsequent moves in the major stock indices nearly exactly. From there we got a move to a lower low followed by a strong corrective rally that has caught most market participants off guard.
As investors once again hang on the monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve Board,…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on January 28, 2012 at 3:30pm — No Comments
Trading a true currency collapse is a rare opportunity. Most market participants are familiar with the story of George Soros and his ride to prominence on the back of the collapse of the British Pound. Is it possible that a similar opportunity may present itself soon in the form of a collapse of…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on January 24, 2012 at 5:00pm — No Comments
The market got spooked by the collapse of a minor brokerage firm, MF Global. Perhaps an appropriate Halloween reaction of -2.5% occurred as the firm's demise was at least partially linked to losses stemming from the European debt crisis. Just two sessions earlier, markets spiked on news that a deal had been struck on Greek debt and the "recapitalization" (bailout) of European banks. At this time all of that spike move has been given back. News that Greece is planning a referendum on its…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on November 1, 2011 at 7:18pm — No Comments
The crash which I called for in my June reports came a month later than expected and the wave count has developed very much as anticipated at that time. In my favored count, SPX is nearing the end of its initial A wave decline of a large 3 part E wave which should end the bear market.
Here's my long term monthly SPX chart:…Continue
Brazil's Bovespa stock market index closed at fresh lows today. It's rally off the early July low was far weaker than that of most other major world markets. A look at the chart shows that a significant level of support going back to October of 2009 was violated in today's selloff.
In fact, the index is just a day's trade away from taking out its May 2010…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on July 12, 2011 at 1:00am — No Comments
Last week SPX appeared to complete an abc sideways correction. By Friday the index was heading back towards its lows and ended the day and the week just above critical support at the confluence of the 200 EMA and the uptrend from March 2009. The setup is for a potential gap below this support zone on Monday, which could then trigger sell stops leading to a cascading decline.
Commodities continued to lead to the downside, with Crude breaking lower and the Agriculture and Grains…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on June 26, 2011 at 8:00pm — No Comments
There are significant signals in the current market that a crash or meltdown scenario could unfold sometime in the next 1-2 weeks. Crashes are rare events and nearly impossible to predict, but many elements that could combine to produce a financial market calamity appear to be present at this time.
The video below reviews the current technical condition of the major world stock markets. In it I examine each index in terms of the relationship between price and the uptrends from March…Continue