BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

Steven Vincent's Blog (98)

A New Beginning of the End for Stocks?

The last BullBear Market Report explored whether the long term Bear Market that began in 2000 may have ended in November of 2012.  This report comes down on the side of concluding that indeed a new, secular Bull Market has begun.  While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave top could come in the vicinity of the 2007 highs, evidence is mounting that the 2011-2012 period was an (E) wave of a…

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Added by Steven Vincent on March 10, 2013 at 8:53pm — 6 Comments

Deficit to GDP Ratio and Q4 2012 Earnings

Will the Deficit as a percentage of GDP get down to World War II levels by the end of the Obama Administration?

Source: Bianco Research

It's interesting that there has been virtually no attention paid to the forthcoming 4th quarter earnings reports.  Apparently the most fundamental of fundamentals supposedly underlying the movement of stock prices is…

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Added by Steven Vincent on January 2, 2013 at 7:00pm — No Comments

A Technical Look at Grains

What are the long term prospects for Corn and the grains complex?  Without knowing anything about the current fundamentals of the market, my take is neutral to bearish.

The monthly chart of Corn is showing a series of RSI divergences and a rising wedge pattern:

I wouldn't consider the current chart to be a good setup from either side of the market.  An upside…

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Added by Steven Vincent on December 19, 2012 at 4:30pm — No Comments

Long Term Market Review

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 18, 2012 at 7:41pm — No Comments

Final Bear Market Leg Beginning?

Since the July 9th BullBear Market Report, the US stock market has apparently completed an ABCDE ascending triangle pattern to complete the rally off the June low.  This is being confirmed by a mounting body of technical evidence which strongly suggests we have either seen the top to the rally or that it is nearby.  The Introduction to the last report…

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Added by Steven Vincent on July 24, 2012 at 3:30pm — No Comments

Stock Market Correction May Start Soon

In spite of today's intraday reversal of some decent losses, the weight of the technical evidence continues to point towards a short to intermediate term correction which will set up a final 5th wave move to a more significant high above the 2011 highs.  Buyers have continually bought even the smallest dip.  This is not bullish.  The market is probably exhausting short to intermediate term buying power at the top of the wave which will likely result in a deeper and longer…

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Added by Steven Vincent on February 27, 2012 at 4:00pm — No Comments

Why S&P 500 Can Rally Back to the 2007 High

As the S&P 500 hovers at its February 2011 high and the Dow toys with its May 2011 peak, many market participants are looking for an important top soon.  While I am certainly aware of some good arguments for a new bear plunge--in fact I've been favoring a major top in the first or second quarter of 2012 myself--I think it's worthwhile to examine the body of technical evidence that indicates that a run at the former all-time highs may be in the offing.

My "BullBear"…

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Added by Steven Vincent on February 7, 2012 at 6:15pm — No Comments

HIGHER THAN YOU THINK, PART II

HIGHER THAN YOU THINK, PART II



The jobs report came in better than expected and we got a pop above resistance that has held and even run throughout the day.  Overbought is becoming more overbought, which is very bullish.  Tape action and technical action and the overall setup tends to favor a run back to the 2007 high rather than a top soon followed by Wave E down.  Here's how I…

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Added by Steven Vincent on February 3, 2012 at 2:55pm — No Comments

BullBear Market Report (09/19/11)

From time to time I release the full text of my BullBear Market Report to the general public.  This edition from September 19, 2011 calls the subsequent moves in the major stock indices nearly exactly.  From there we got a move to a lower low followed by a strong corrective rally that has caught most market participants off guard.

 

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As investors once again hang on the monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve Board,…

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Added by Steven Vincent on January 28, 2012 at 3:30pm — No Comments

Will the Euro Collapse?

Source Link: http://www.thebullbear.com/profiles/blogs/will-the-euro-collapse

Will the Euro Collapse?

Trading a true currency collapse is a rare opportunity. Most market participants are familiar with the story of George Soros and his ride to prominence on the back of the collapse of the British Pound. Is it possible that a similar opportunity may present itself soon in the form of a collapse of…

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Added by Steven Vincent on January 24, 2012 at 5:00pm — No Comments

11/01/11 BullBear Market Report

The market got spooked by the collapse of a minor brokerage firm, MF Global. Perhaps an appropriate Halloween reaction of -2.5% occurred as the firm's demise was at least partially linked to losses stemming from the European debt crisis. Just two sessions earlier, markets spiked on news that a deal had been struck on Greek debt and the "recapitalization" (bailout) of European banks. At this time all of that spike move has been given back.  News that Greece is planning a referendum on its…

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Added by Steven Vincent on November 1, 2011 at 7:18pm — No Comments

Gloom Today, Boom Tomorrow?

The crash which I called for in my June reports came a month later than expected and the wave count has developed very much as anticipated at that time.  In my favored count, SPX is nearing the end of its initial A wave decline of a large 3 part E wave which should end the bear market.

Here's my long term monthly SPX chart:…

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Added by Steven Vincent on August 19, 2011 at 1:00am — 3 Comments

Is Brazil Putting Up A Bearish Warning Flag?

Brazil's Bovespa stock market index closed at fresh lows today.  It's rally off the early July low was far weaker than that of most other major world markets.  A look at the chart shows that a significant level of support going back to October of 2009 was violated in today's selloff.

In fact, the index is just a day's trade away from taking out its May 2010…

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Added by Steven Vincent on July 12, 2011 at 1:00am — No Comments

Initial Stages of Global Stock Market Crash In Progress?

Last week SPX appeared to complete an abc sideways correction.  By Friday the index was heading back towards its lows and ended the day and the week just above critical support at the confluence of the 200 EMA and the uptrend from March 2009.  The setup is for a potential gap below this support zone on Monday, which could then trigger sell stops leading to a cascading decline.

Commodities continued to lead to the downside, with Crude breaking lower and the Agriculture and Grains…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 26, 2011 at 8:00pm — No Comments

Stock Market Crash Possible Soon?

There are significant signals in the current market that a crash or meltdown scenario could unfold sometime in the next 1-2 weeks. Crashes are rare events and nearly impossible to predict, but many elements that could combine to produce a financial market calamity appear to be present at this time.

The video below reviews the current technical condition of the major world stock markets.  In it I examine each index in terms of the relationship between price and the uptrends from March…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 14, 2011 at 11:00pm — 1 Comment

Potential Long Term Topping Process Underway

(The following is an updated excerpt from the latest BullBear Market Report for BullBear Traders members):

 

 

Since the February high, market participants have been subjected to a stream of weak and worsening fundamental economic data.  In the last week since the June 1st high, this trend appears to have…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 9, 2011 at 6:54pm — 8 Comments

Time To Refresh Your View of the Markets?

 

(The following is the Introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report for BullBear Traders members)

 

In the last BullBear Market Report, I called for a significant correction to begin and announced that I had closed…

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Added by Steven Vincent on May 30, 2011 at 2:31am — No Comments

Significant Market Correction In Progress Now

 

I've been long SPX since the September 2010 bottom and an aggressive buyer on pullbacks.  Today I exited all long trades and went to 100% cash and then even took on a small short position.  My current analysis shows ample reason to conclude that stocks and commodities are in the early stages of a significant correction.  Here's my SPX trading record…

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Added by Steven Vincent on May 13, 2011 at 10:00pm — 1 Comment

Key Indexes at New All Time Highs

05/01/11 BullBear Market Report

by Steven Vincent

BullBear Trading

 

INTRODUCTION

 

In the last BullBear Market Report, I called for a minor near term correction to support that would be a buying opportunity, and we got just that.  The market…

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Added by Steven Vincent on April 30, 2011 at 8:00pm — No Comments

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