In the last BullBear Market Report issued on September 17, I proposed the following as the primary scenario facing the US equities markets:
SPX is making a B wave high in this area with a C wave decline to follow, eclipsing the 2012 bottom and potentially the 2011 low as well. The resulting bottom may mark the end of the bear market that started in 2000.…
Added by Steven Vincent on November 26, 2012 at 2:30pm — No Comments
Added by Steven Vincent on September 18, 2012 at 7:41pm — No Comments
Since the July 9th BullBear Market Report, the US stock market has apparently completed an ABCDE ascending triangle pattern to complete the rally off the June low. This is being confirmed by a mounting body of technical evidence which strongly suggests we have either seen the top to the rally or that it is nearby. The Introduction to the last report…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on July 24, 2012 at 3:30pm — No Comments
Here's yet another technical study which shows that we have been in a bear market since early 2011:
I'd been noticing relative weakness in the Midcaps so I decided to have a look. Mids cleanly outperformed SPX since the 2009 bottom but the ratio topped in April 2011, making a secondary lower high in July 2011. The bounce off the 2011 low was weak and a…Continue
The recent rally is in many ways comparable to the June 2011 rally. The technical setup has turned out to be very, very similar. The probabilities that markets will be chased higher on news this week does seem to be elevated, but this will almost certainly set up a magnificent shorting opportunity on a par with the July 2011 highs. So far we have seen "sell the news" reactions on the Spain banking bailout and Greece elections news and there is a good possibility we will see the same this…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on June 19, 2012 at 1:14am — No Comments
Last week I posted analysis showing that the monthly RSI divergence which formed at the 2011 and 2012 highs is a very reliable indicator of a stock market decline of almost 28% lasting 11 months. I continue to see many, many companion signals which confirm this.
The Value Line Geometric Index is showing a technical condition which has also been a strong indicator of major…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on June 16, 2012 at 10:00pm — No Comments
Relative Strength Index is one of the most widely recognized and followed technical indicators. The most common use of RSI is the identification of divergences:
Developed J. Welles Wilder, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements...According to Wilder, divergences signal a potential reversal point because directional momentum does not…
"There is only one side to the stock market; not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side" --Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Added by Steven Vincent on June 3, 2012 at 6:30pm — No Comments
I turned long term bearish exactly one year ago today. Below is the complete BullBear Market Report in which I accurately called the long term top. While big cap US stocks did go on to a higher B wave high (which I also called in October 2011), global risk asset markets clearly made their primary top in February of 2011.
It's important to re-evaluate and check one's market position against the unfolding reality of the markets and the available data. Currently, bulls are showing an…Continue
In the last EuroTracker report, I asked the question: "Will the Euro Collapse?" I concluded that the available technical evidence strongly indicated that it would but that before that could occur there would be a rally. We got that rally, though it proved to be much weaker than expected.
Now it's time to ask: "Is the Collapse of the Euro Imminent?". Based on the available…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on May 24, 2012 at 11:00pm — No Comments
Pattern recognition is the primary task of Technical Analysis. Determining and distinguishing between patterning and order on the one hand and noise and chaos on the other is the essence of good TA.
Analysis shows that markets have created prolific (though throughly unrecognized) Head and Shoulders topping patterns during the February to May 2012 time frame as well as during the period 2009/2010 to 2012 (also throughly invisible to most market participants).
Added by Steven Vincent on May 19, 2012 at 10:00pm — No Comments
Let me start by clarifying something. I am not saying that the market could crash spectacularly in the next few days and that in that event the Facebook IPO would be a major contributing factor. I am not saying that. The market is saying it.
Facebook boosts IPO size by 25 percent, could top $16 billion
NEW YORK/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Facebook Inc increased the size of its…
High Risk of Near Term Global Financial Market Crash
At each juncture, I look at the available information as represented in the market price and technical data. I approach the body of evidence without preconception and with an open "beginner's mind". I see what I see. I analyze. I develop a set of probabilistic outcomes and then rank them. Then I write my report. I simply report my…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on May 14, 2012 at 9:00pm — No Comments
A bit of economic news sparked a minor rally on Tuesday. The Dow touched a new 4 year intraday high and the financial news media celebrated the moment with banner headlines:
In spite of the fact that not one market index anywhere in the…Continue
In spite of today's intraday reversal of some decent losses, the weight of the technical evidence continues to point towards a short to intermediate term correction which will set up a final 5th wave move to a more significant high above the 2011 highs. Buyers have continually bought even the smallest dip. This is not bullish. The market is probably exhausting short to intermediate term buying power at the top of the wave which will likely result in a deeper and longer…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on February 27, 2012 at 4:00pm — No Comments
As the S&P 500 hovers at its February 2011 high and the Dow toys with its May 2011 peak, many market participants are looking for an important top soon. While I am certainly aware of some good arguments for a new bear plunge--in fact I've been favoring a major top in the first or second quarter of 2012 myself--I think it's worthwhile to examine the body of technical evidence that indicates that a run at the former all-time highs may be in the offing.
Added by Steven Vincent on February 7, 2012 at 6:15pm — No Comments
HIGHER THAN YOU THINK, PART II
The jobs report came in better than expected and we got a pop above resistance that has held and even run throughout the day. Overbought is becoming more overbought, which is very bullish. Tape action and technical action and the overall setup tends to favor a run back to the 2007 high rather than a top soon followed by Wave E down. Here's how I…
Added by Steven Vincent on February 3, 2012 at 2:55pm — No Comments
Even as rumors abound of a debt haircut deal between private investors and Greece, markets have started to correct from short and intermediate term overbought conditions. Many pundits have already started to talk of a major top and no doubt the current round of selling will spur more to jump aboard the bear bandwagon. While I tend to agree that a significant market peak is not far away, my current analysis leads me to conclude that the present decline is a minor episode and there is at…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on January 29, 2012 at 11:30pm — No Comments
From time to time I release the full text of my BullBear Market Report to the general public. This edition from September 19, 2011 calls the subsequent moves in the major stock indices nearly exactly. From there we got a move to a lower low followed by a strong corrective rally that has caught most market participants off guard.
As investors once again hang on the monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve Board,…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on January 28, 2012 at 3:30pm — No Comments