BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

Steven Vincent's Blog (115)

Intermediate Term Bottom, Long Term Triangle

In the last BullBear Market Report issued on September 17, I proposed the following as the primary scenario facing the US equities markets:

SPX is making a B wave high in this area with a C wave decline to follow, eclipsing the 2012 bottom and potentially the 2011 low as well.  The resulting bottom may mark the end of the bear market that started in 2000.…


Added by Steven Vincent on November 26, 2012 at 2:30pm — No Comments

Long Term Market Review


Added by Steven Vincent on September 18, 2012 at 7:41pm — No Comments

Next Bear Market Leg Beginning?

Since the July 9th BullBear Market Report, the US stock market has apparently completed an ABCDE ascending triangle pattern to complete the rally off the June low.  This is being confirmed by a mounting body of technical evidence which strongly suggests we have either seen the top to the rally or that it is nearby.  The Introduction to the last report…


Added by Steven Vincent on July 24, 2012 at 3:30pm — No Comments

2011 Redux?


Added by Steven Vincent on July 10, 2012 at 9:30pm — No Comments

Midcaps to Big Caps Ratio Confirms Bear Market

Here's yet another technical study which shows that we have been in a bear market since early 2011:

I'd been noticing relative weakness in the Midcaps so I decided to have a look.  Mids cleanly outperformed SPX since the 2009 bottom but the ratio topped in April 2011, making a secondary lower high in July 2011.  The bounce off the 2011 low was weak and a…


Added by Steven Vincent on June 28, 2012 at 2:00pm — 1 Comment

The Final Rally

The recent rally is in many ways comparable to the June 2011 rally.  The technical setup has turned out to be very, very similar.  The probabilities that markets will be chased higher on news this week does seem to be elevated, but this will almost certainly set up a magnificent shorting opportunity on a par with the July 2011 highs.  So far we have seen "sell the news" reactions on the Spain banking bailout and Greece elections news and there is a good possibility we will see the same this…


Added by Steven Vincent on June 19, 2012 at 1:14am — No Comments

Value Line Geometric Index Predicts Major Stock Market Top

Last week I posted analysis showing that the monthly RSI divergence which formed at the 2011 and 2012 highs is a very reliable indicator of a stock market decline of almost 28% lasting 11 months.  I continue to see many, many companion signals which confirm this.

The Value Line Geometric Index is showing a technical condition which has also been a strong indicator of major…


Added by Steven Vincent on June 16, 2012 at 10:00pm — No Comments

Bearish Monthly RSI Divergence 100% Accuracy Rate; Occurred at 91.6% of Stock Market Tops

Relative Strength Index is one of the most widely recognized and followed technical indicators.  The most common use of RSI is the identification of divergences:

Developed J. Welles Wilder, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements...According to Wilder, divergences signal a potential reversal point because directional momentum does not…


Added by Steven Vincent on June 9, 2012 at 10:00pm — 1 Comment

Global Financial Market Panic in Progress

"There is only one side to the stock market; not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side"  --Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator


One year ago today I detailed to BullBear Traders members my reasons…


Added by Steven Vincent on June 3, 2012 at 6:30pm — No Comments

June 2011: Recognizing the Start of a Long Term Bear Market

I turned long term bearish exactly one year ago today.  Below is the complete BullBear Market Report in which I accurately called the long term top.  While big cap US stocks did go on to a higher B wave high (which I also called in October 2011), global risk asset markets clearly made their primary top in February of 2011.

It's important to re-evaluate and check one's market position against the unfolding reality of the markets and the available data.  Currently, bulls are showing an…


Added by Steven Vincent on May 30, 2012 at 3:30pm — 8 Comments

Is the Collapse of the Euro Imminent?

In the last EuroTracker report, I asked the question: "Will the Euro Collapse?"  I concluded that the available technical evidence strongly indicated that it would but that before that could occur there would be a rally.  We got that rally, though it proved to be much weaker than expected.

Now it's time to ask: "Is the Collapse of the Euro Imminent?".  Based on the available…


Added by Steven Vincent on May 24, 2012 at 11:00pm — No Comments

Fractal Echos From 1987 and 2011 Reverberating in 2012

Pattern recognition is the primary task of Technical Analysis. 
 Determining and distinguishing between patterning and order on the one hand and noise and chaos on the other is the essence of good TA.

Analysis shows that markets have created prolific (though throughly unrecognized) Head and Shoulders topping patterns during the February to May 2012 time frame as well as during the period 2009/2010 to 2012 (also throughly invisible to most market participants).

In addition,…


Added by Steven Vincent on May 19, 2012 at 10:00pm — No Comments

Facebook IPO May Break the Market and Initiate a Free Fall Crash

Let me start by clarifying something.  I am not saying that the market could crash spectacularly in the next few days and that in that event the Facebook IPO would be a major contributing factor.  I am not saying that.  The market is saying it.

Facebook boosts IPO size by 25 percent, could top $16 billion

Facebook Inc increased the size of its…


Added by Steven Vincent on May 18, 2012 at 1:30am — 3 Comments

Bullish Consensus Creates High Risk of Potential Near Term Global Financial Market Crash

High Risk of Near Term Global Financial Market Crash


At each juncture, I look at the available information as represented in the market price and technical data.  I approach the body of evidence without preconception and with an open "beginner's mind".  I see what I see.  I analyze.  I develop a set of probabilistic outcomes and then rank them. Then I write my report.  I simply report my…


Added by Steven Vincent on May 14, 2012 at 9:00pm — No Comments


A bit of economic news sparked a minor rally on Tuesday.  The Dow touched a new 4 year intraday high and the financial news media celebrated the moment with banner headlines:

In spite of the fact that not one market index anywhere in the…


Added by Steven Vincent on May 2, 2012 at 2:30pm — 2 Comments

Stock Market Correction May Start Soon

In spite of today's intraday reversal of some decent losses, the weight of the technical evidence continues to point towards a short to intermediate term correction which will set up a final 5th wave move to a more significant high above the 2011 highs.  Buyers have continually bought even the smallest dip.  This is not bullish.  The market is probably exhausting short to intermediate term buying power at the top of the wave which will likely result in a deeper and longer…


Added by Steven Vincent on February 27, 2012 at 4:00pm — No Comments

Why S&P 500 Can Rally Back to the 2007 High

As the S&P 500 hovers at its February 2011 high and the Dow toys with its May 2011 peak, many market participants are looking for an important top soon.  While I am certainly aware of some good arguments for a new bear plunge--in fact I've been favoring a major top in the first or second quarter of 2012 myself--I think it's worthwhile to examine the body of technical evidence that indicates that a run at the former all-time highs may be in the offing.

My "BullBear"…


Added by Steven Vincent on February 7, 2012 at 6:15pm — No Comments



The jobs report came in better than expected and we got a pop above resistance that has held and even run throughout the day.  Overbought is becoming more overbought, which is very bullish.  Tape action and technical action and the overall setup tends to favor a run back to the 2007 high rather than a top soon followed by Wave E down.  Here's how I…


Added by Steven Vincent on February 3, 2012 at 2:55pm — No Comments

Is the Stock Market Ready to Top?

Even as rumors abound of a debt haircut deal between private investors and Greece, markets have started to correct from short and intermediate term overbought conditions.  Many pundits have already started to talk of a major top and no doubt the current round of selling will spur more to jump aboard the bear bandwagon.  While I tend to agree that a significant market peak is not far away, my current analysis leads me to conclude that the present decline is a minor episode and there is at…


Added by Steven Vincent on January 29, 2012 at 11:30pm — No Comments

BullBear Market Report (09/19/11)

From time to time I release the full text of my BullBear Market Report to the general public.  This edition from September 19, 2011 calls the subsequent moves in the major stock indices nearly exactly.  From there we got a move to a lower low followed by a strong corrective rally that has caught most market participants off guard.




As investors once again hang on the monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve Board,…


Added by Steven Vincent on January 28, 2012 at 3:30pm — No Comments

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