BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

NEW REPORT! Stocks Set for a New Decline as Transformational Economic Dislocations Begin

Happy New Year! The first week of the year saw a substantive decline in the stock indices, particularly in the leading tech stocks, and if the following week results in a further decline, this would likely confirm that a more substantive and accelerating drop will ensue. Long term I remain bullish and I do not expect to see lower lows in most indices. Some indices may in fact remain resilient and diverge from the larger decline.

2024 is set to be a watershed year in virtually every domain as the epochal transformational forces that I have been talking about for years are now coming to an inflection point. 

I'm going to start this report with a discussion of these forces and the convergence that is now set up to dislocate every aspect of economic, social and political life. Then I'll dig into the technical charts and indicators and show how they align with a near term and intermediate term decline in prices.

For many years I have been speaking in terms of "paradigm shift", "secular shift", "technological revolution", "Fourth Turning" and other similar terminology to highlight the epochal turning point that was approaching. I called attention to "civil war", "World War III" and other societal and political ruptures of the domestic and international fabric of the olde order. I wrote about "post-labor economics", "post-capitalism", "entropy economics" and "Info-Intelligence economics" to guide readers to an understanding that the foundational economic underpinnings of all structures were already being revolutionized.

As time has passed, the unfolding reality has shown that I have been correct in my assessment. I think that were my analysis has been deficient is that it has not gone far enough. The transformations that are now in progress are not merely on the level of a "paradigm" or "secular". They rise to the level of the ontological.

"Ontological" in this context refers to the very essence or nature of economic, social, and political systems. Ontology, in philosophy, deals with the study of being or existence. Applied to our discussion of market trends and global shifts, it suggests that the changes we are witnessing are not just superficial or cyclical alterations but fundamental transformations at the core of how these systems operate and are understood.

These ontological changes imply a deep restructuring of the principles and assumptions that have long underpinned economic theories and practices. For instance, the concept of "post-labor economics" challenges traditional notions of labor and value creation in the economy. Similarly, "entropy economics" and "Info-Intelligence economics" suggest a radical departure from conventional economic models, focusing instead on information and data as key drivers of value and productivity.

In a world increasingly influenced by artificial intelligence, big data, and a rapidly evolving technological landscape, the foundational concepts of supply and demand, value creation, and even the nature of work and capital are being redefined. This ontological shift extends beyond economics into social and political realms, where traditional structures and ideologies are being questioned and reimagined in the face of global challenges and technological advancements.

As these ontological transformations accelerate, they will inevitably lead to a new ontology (a new status quo of being and understanding of being) not only in how markets operate but also in how they are analyzed and understood. The implications for investors, policymakers, and society at large are profound. Understanding and adapting to these shifts will be crucial for navigating the future landscape, where the old rules will no longer apply, and new principles are still in the process of being written.

In summary, the term "ontological" in this analysis encapsulates a deep and fundamental shift at the very core of our economic, social, and political systems, driven by unprecedented technological and informational advancements and the thorough dislocations that accompany them. This ontological shift challenges necessitates a reevaluation of long-held assumptions, opening up new avenues for understanding and engaging with the world around us.

To put it plainly and succinctly, the emergence of Artificial Intelligence, soon to become Artificial General Intelligence, and then Artificial Superintelligence, is a shift on the same level as that which occurred 50-100,000 years ago when humans first evolved into Homo sapiens through the dynamic of Cultural Intelligence. For more on this note, please see:

Art, Artifice and Artificial Intelligence: 

Artifactualism and the New Art School 

by Steven Vincent


I know this is hard to digest and may seem a bit heady and far off and not relevant to your daily life and well-being. This is not the case. Your daily life, in every aspect, requires that you adapt your personal worldview to accommodate the hard, fast and thorough changes that are happening all around you in every domain. History is a record of evolutionary force. And evolutionary force favors those who adapt. To survive and thrive, adaptation is required. And one of the best paths to successful evolutionary adaptation is intelligence with regards to the nature of the changes required.

I've been noting for years that very few if any of the old economic and technical metrics that were useful under the old capitalist system would continue to be useful as the new system emerged. This has been proven. You really can't point to a single indicator or metric that was previously deemed reliable that has "worked" since 2020.

The biggest fail of all has been...

The remainder is reserved for Bull Bear Trading subscribers. New members can receive a complementary, no obligation month: https://www.thebullbear.com/notes/BullBear_Traders_Access


Stocks Set for a New Decline

as Transformational Economic Dislocations Begin



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