BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

Latest Activity

Steven Vincent posted a status
"STOCKS BOUNCE BUT RALLY IS VERY NARROW https://t.ly/ZDJQ"
10 hours ago
Steven Vincent posted a status
"BITCOIN/CRYPTO CONTINUES BREAKDOWN https://bit.ly/3iQCvXB"
yesterday
Steven Vincent posted a status
"ANTICIPATED CROSS-ASSET SELL WAVE IN FULL SWING https://t.ly/lrVK"
yesterday
Steven Vincent posted a status
"STOCKS CLEANLY CRACK SUPPORT; NEXT WEEK MUCH LOWER. https://t.ly/Ao49"
Friday
Steven Vincent posted a status
"STOCKS POSITIONED FOR A BREAK LOWER SOON. https://t.ly/K2Tm"
Thursday
Steven Vincent posted a status
"STOCKS PUMP AND THEN DUMP ON FED STATEMENT; MINOR DEGREE B-WAVE MAY BE COMPLETE. https://bit.ly/2H4J2jb"
Sep 16
Steven Vincent posted a status
"BITCOIN READY TO CONTINUE INTERMEDIATE TERM DECLINE https://bit.ly/3imPeRr"
Sep 13
Steven Vincent posted a status
"RALLIES KEEP FAILING; LOWER WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW KEY SUPPORT LEVELS. https://bit.ly/32jlHm1"
Sep 11
Profile IconLudwig Karlsson and Richard McConnell joined BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis
Sep 10
Steven Vincent posted a status
"STOCKS BOUNCE BUT THE INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND IS DOWN. https://t.ly/mRkD"
Sep 9
Steven Vincent posted a status
"BITCOIN SET UP FOR ANOTHER BIG DROP. https://bit.ly/32b8iMX"
Sep 8
Steven Vincent posted a status
"US STOCKS BREAK TREND, D-WAVE TOP CONFIRMED. https://bit.ly/3m2726G"
Sep 8
Steven Vincent posted a status
"TREASURY YIELDS SET UP TECHNICALLY FOR AN EXPLOSION HIGHER   https://t.ly/z2si"
Sep 8
Steven Vincent posted a status
"New Report!      Treasury Yields Update https://bit.ly/2QXreYU"
Sep 4
Steven Vincent posted a status
"BITCOIN CRACKS SUPPORT, BUT A BUYING OPPORTUNITY APPROACHES https://bit.ly/2EW1WIf"
Sep 3
Gerald A. Dienst is now a member of BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis
Sep 3
Steven Vincent posted a status
"US STOCKS INTERMEDIATE D-WAVE TOP; CROSS-ASSET CORRECTION BEGINS. https://bit.ly/2DopiWe"
Sep 3
JOHN DVORAK is now a member of BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis
Aug 26
Steven Vincent posted a status
"Bitcoin/Crypto Turns Intermediate Term Bearish. https://bit.ly/2EAJnc2"
Aug 25
Steven Vincent updated their profile
Aug 24
 

Welcome to TheBullBear.com!

Current Orientation on U.S. Stocks

Google ChartGoogle ChartGoogle Chart

Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency:

Short term-BEARISH, Intermediate term-BEARISH, Long term-Neutral

Crude Oil:

Short term-BEARISH, Intermediate term-BEARISH, Long term-BEARISH

10-30 Year Treasury Yields:

Short term-BULLISH, Intermediate term-BULLISH, Long Term-Neutral

Gold:

Short term-BEARISH, Intermediate Term-BEARISH, Long Term-Neutral

  

Last Updated: 09-03-20


Keeping You on the Right Side of the Markets

Financial Market Technical Analysis

Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading

Get the balanced, objective analysis you need to profit from timing moves in the stock market, gold, precious metals, commodities, treasuries, bonds or forex!


NEW REPORT!

Understanding The Apparent Mismatch

Between Current Economic Conditions

and the Financial System

Summary

  • Existing theories of economics and the financial system cannot match successfully with current conditions.
  • Long term data on stock index breadth, corporate earnings, Treasury yields and S&P 500 dividend yield strongly suggest a fundamental break with the past is in progress.
  • Past economic and financial system models, analytical tools and metrics will have to be entirely reconsidered and reconstructed.
  • The Secular Systemic Shift now underway is so profound and so far-reaching and so all-encompassing that it is probably analogous to the shift occasioned by the Age of Enlightenment, the Scientific Revolution, the American Revolution and (later) the Industrial Revolution.
Recently, in the wake of the dramatic, catalyzing events associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, analysts have struggled to match the action in the Economy with that of the Financial System. Existing disparities of inequality and maldistribution have been dramatically exacerbated as the financial indices have soared.  In no quarter is there found any real explanation for the utter failure of all existent theories to anticipate or explain our current experience. The general reaction is one of befuddled annoyance. Irrespective of viewpoint, left or right, economists and market analysts are trying to figure out why the emergent reality does not conform to their model of how things should be and the default tendency is to wag a finger of blame at the other side of the aisle.

THEORIES

Let’s examine the current existing views on the mismatch between the economic crisis and the action in the financial system.

The “Disconnect Theory” retreads the Austrian view that has been around since Nixon first disconnected the dollar from the gold standard. It basically states that action in the Financial System is so far our of whack with the metrics of what are generally perceived to be “The Fundamentals” that, eventually, this disparity will have to collapse in on itself.

The “Fed Theory” is an extension of the time-honored neo-Keynesian “Don’t Fight the Fed” party line. It abandons any pretense of analysis and advocates for a fully lobotomized world-view. “Don’t bother to make any sense of it at all…cuz Fed”.

The minority "Fundamentalist Theory" assures us that the action in the Financial System is reflecting something fundamental.  Most often that "something" is defined well within the parameters of established economic performance metrics.  We are assured that GDP, employment, corporate profits, P/E ratios and other time-honored measures will inevitably reflect the soaring valuations being priced into the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.

The "Secular Systemic Shift Theory", an outlier minority viewpoint, sees the current period as a transition to a fundamentally new underlying economics requiring a thorough update and revision of all economic theory and a new set of analytical tools.  This is a variant on the Strauss/Howe "Fourth Turning" generational shift perspective.  While most "Fourth Turning" advocates see the current situation as a transition within the same Capitalist system, the proponents of this view see the present shift as both Secular and Systemic.

At BullBear Trading, we have been tracking the arrival of a “Secular Shift”, a phenomenon roughly equivalent to the Strauss/Howe “Fourth Turning”, since 2012. In 2018 I started to identify 2020 as the year that the “Shift” would make itself known. The combination of financial and economic crisis, de facto Civil War and de facto major power war between the US and China is the symptomatic manifestation of an underlying fundamental, systemic paradigm shift in progress.

In a recent essay, “Information is the New Capital”, I began to introduce some elements of a correlated paradigmatic shift into our understanding of Economics and its application to the Financial System.  I recommend that readers have a look at that before they dive into the present analysis...

GO HERE to read the full report:

https://bit.ly/2ZJwaVe

The rest of this report is reserved for subscribers and focuses on technical analysis of price charts and indicators in stocks, bonds and additional fundamental analysis and conclusions for traders and investors for the short, intermediate, long and very long term.

Subscribe here:

BullBear Market Report

 


What Members Say About
 BullBear Trading...


Read Steven Vincent's Public Trading Analysis Blog

 

Blog Posts

Criticism of Prechter and Hochberg

Posted by John on July 30, 2020 at 5:00pm 0 Comments

When the Elliott Wave Theorist (subscription service, pay to get your advice) issues a market opinion, I imagine Jimmy Cagney holding a machine gun at your head saying "you dirty rat".  Then firing dozens of bullets. 

Why this imagery and comparison?  Imagine you want to kill someone financially (and demoralize them too!).  How would you do it? Well,, the way they do it is a pretty good model.  Make very strong impassioned arguments against the large trend in force so that people bet…

Continue

get every single market’s major trend wrong consistently

Posted by John on July 25, 2020 at 7:58am 3 Comments

Robert Prechter and EWI are in the business of providing market forecasts in exchange for subscription fees.  The main markets they seem to cover are the stock markets, interest rates, precious metals, and the US Dollar.

Amazingly, they manage to get every single market’s major trend wrong consistently.

Wrong on the stock markets, bonds, gold, silver, the US…

Continue

EWI and Steven Hochberg and market history

Posted by John on July 22, 2020 at 8:56am 0 Comments

The service is called SHORT-TERM UPDATE (updated 3 X per week).

EWI and Hochberg have missed every important stock market rally and precious metals rally in the past 5-6 months (as of July 2020).  

Actually, it is much worse than that, they have actively been on the wrong side, meaning they have been extremely bearish during these trends.

Comments such as 'it's time for gold to top', and similar comments like that, are understandable in people…

Continue

Hochberg - helpful for what not to do

Posted by John on July 15, 2020 at 4:47pm 2 Comments

Steve Hochberg at Elliott Wave Int'l is really a useful lesson in how NOT to approach (or trade) markets.   Here is what I mean. He and the service (Short Term Update & their monthly report) are extremely bearish, and that has been true for nearly ever, and especially from the March 2020 lows. 

He has been harping on sentiment indicators for months (almost from the lows in late March 2020 too,…

Continue

Forum

Beginners guide to master price action trading

Started by Andrews Wright in Forex Dec 18, 2019. 0 Replies

The novice traders have a lot to learn from the expert traders. The expert traders know the INS and OUT of the Forex market. However, knowing the details is not enough. You have to create a strategy…Continue

On Days Like This Watch For Stocks That Are Showing Relative Strength $SBUX

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Jan 22, 2019. 0 Replies

Today, all of the major stock indexes are declining sharply lower falling by more than 1.0 percent on the session. This decline comes after a huge rally that started on December 26, 2018 and lead to…Continue

Options Expiration Week Is A Time For Institutional Game Playing

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Jan 14, 2019. 0 Replies

This coming Friday is options expiration for the month of January. Usually, the trading week leading into options expiration is filled with a lot of game playing by the institutional crowd. This is…Continue

Video Game Stocks Are under Selling Pressure, Here's The Next Trade $ATVI

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Dec 3, 2018. 0 Replies

As you know, all of the leading video game developers have been under selling pressure since October 2018. Video game developer stocks such as Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ:ATVI), Electronic Arts…Continue

 
 
 

Join BullBear Traders

 
Free 30 Day Trial
No Credit Card Required

SUBSCRIBE Here
  

Pay with Cryptocurrency and SAVE!

6 Months BullBear Trading

for $100

(regularly $120.00)

 

Steven Vincent's market analysis is published on:

Steven Vincent's opinion is polled every week for the Birinyi Associates
TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll

Members

Stock Market Trading, Technical Analysis and Commentary. Get the objective analysis you need to profit from moves in the financial markets!

"bull market", depression, "elliott wave", "financial crisis", gold, invest, "market crash", metals, precious, "robert prechter", "stock market", "technical analysis", trading, day trading, "day trading", "swing trading", "bear market", investments, investing, "financial market", bonds, "muni bond", "bond market", "federal reserve", spx, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average

MarketTechnicalAnalyst.com

© 2020   Created by Steven Vincent.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service