Orientation on U.S. Stocks
Short term-BULLISH, Intermediate-BULLISH, Long term-NEUTRAL
Short term-NEUTRAL, Intermediate-BEARISH, Long term-NEUTRAL
10-30 Year Treasury Yields:
Short term-BEARISH Intermediate-BEARISH, Long Term-Neutral
Short term-NEUTRAL, Intermediate-NEUTRAL, Long Term-Neutral
Last Updated: 10-03-22
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US stocks have rallied to a very natural intermediate term high and have begun to correct from upside extended technical conditions. While the common drumbeat is that we are now seeing the start of a renewed decline to much lower lows in a major degree bear market, my position is that we have likely seen the price lows for the correction and will now see a decline to support as part of an ongoing sideways corrective pattern.
In previous reports and updates I said that we needed to watch for signs of a "Breadth Thrust", a technical response which has typically been associated with durable price lows and/or the start of new bull phases. We have seen some such technical indications and I'll be highlighting these in this report.
It's important to keep in mind that while there is a lot of risk in the world...geopolitical, economic, societal...there is no reason to automatically assume that the maturation of any of these risks into concrete eventualities must a priori lead to a further decline in stock prices. IF we were discussing an actual market mechanism, we might reasonably anticipate such a relationship. However, as I have been saying for the last two years, ever since the pandemic crash and bailout, we have no reason at all to assume that market dynamics are in effect and every reason to doubt that they are. The simple version is that corporate executive compensation is tied to stock price. In an era of ever more immediate and perfected knowledge fed into artificial intelligence algorithmic platforms, the manipulation of price into a trading range is more than attainable. Right now corporations are launching buyback programs even as individual investors remain hunkered down on the sidelines in full bear mode.
Let's note that price recently got well above levels that were seen in the third week of January and in spite of recent selling is now at levels seen in early February. Effectively, very little has happened on a net basis in spite of the brouhaha about crashes and disasters. For the average person there is certainly a lot of pain and more to come. For Wall Street...maybe not so much....CONTINUE READING:
EWT’s Hochberg continues his pathetic gibberish in the guise of wise Buddha like sayings:
’Inertia grips the S&P 500 as today’s 0.39% trading range was the smallest of the year, as shown on the Bloomberg chart above. Low volatility precedes high volatility and inaction leads to action, so expect some wide-ranging days in the not-too-distant future.’
No specificity, no plan or action of how to use this…Continue
Is it a concern when a long term super bear all of a sudden begins calling for new highs? Even when those new highs are part of coming ‘Armageddon’? Because EWT is now calling for that!
Hochberg is now calling for new highs (of course, the odds favor that outcome. The market is in an historic bull advance).
But for about 10 months straight, in the face…Continue
Elliott Wave International: Short and simple
I am not sure they fully understand that for most people, the purpose of the markets is, quite simply, to make money. An indication they might not share your goal (or any trader/investor’s goal) is they never provide practical guidance for trades.
For them, it seems that the more arcane the analysis the better. That seems their purpose. Not making money. In fact, they apparently are so disinterested in making money,…Continue
Elliott Wave Theorist’s Steve Hochberg recently wrote this:“As the bear market progresses, U.S. junk bond yields will eventually resemble China’s junk bond yields as world credit evaporates. The…Continue
Anyone who remotely follows the Prechter Hochberg wealth destruction series is aware that they are religious in their market view. They ‘know’ the true path of the stock market (all markets just as…Continue
There is information below from Sentiment Trader, describing what almost everyone knows: The 2020-2021, 16 month bull market, is one of the largest and sharpest in recent history. In case you do not…Continue
Anyone reading EWT and Prechter and Hochberg?Prechter hides behind one good commodity (but impossible to use ) call 13 years ago or so in 2008, and now makes another shoot for the moon commodity call…Continue