Orientation on U.S. Stocks
Short term-BULLISH, Intermediate-BULLISH, Long term-NEUTRAL
Short term-BEARISH, Intermediate-BEARISH, Long term-NEUTRAL
10-30 Year Treasury Yields:
Short term-BEARISH Intermediate-BEARISH, Long Term-Neutral
Short term-BEARISH, Intermediate-BEARISH, Long Term-Neutral
Last Updated: 05-17-22
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Financial Market Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading
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Posted by Steven Vincent on July 21, 2021 at 8:25pm in BullBear Traders
In the last BullBear Market Reports I have been highlighting that, with the events and circumstances surrounding the Covid "crisis", economics and financial mechanisms have shifted fully into an entirely new paradigm. There are no longer any markets, as classically defined, and the system is no longer capitalist. Some form of Information-centric technocratic regime has taken firm root in political, social and economic structures. As participants in the financial mechanism (note I did not call it a market) we must rapidly and decisively recognize the bare truth of this massive shift and then evaluate how to best and most profitably participate.
A report was issued recently that concluded that the "Covid Recession" was the shortest on record, lasting only two months. One is immediately struck by the seeming impossibility of an economic dislocation involving the nearly total cessation of economic activity in a major part of the national and global economies resulting in a mild recession lasting two months. Somehow this does not align. But this is just the kind of misalignment and disconjunction we can expect to find in all economic and financial analysis. Old metrics (such as the accepted definition of "recession") will simply not be able to measure the real world effects generated by an economic basis that has been fundamentally transformed. We are finding this to be true of standard technical analysis as well. There are virtually no standard trend channels, chart formations or Elliott Wave patterns to be found on the chart of virtually any financial mechanism since the onset of the Covid crash (and in many cases, even before it). This is simply a reflection of the fact that the underlying financial/economic basis is no longer the one which these tools were created to describe. We are faced with the need to totally reassess all analytical tools and metrics and eventually create new ones that fit the emergent underlying reality.
As was noted in the last report, instead of breaking down from contact with the upper rail of the major very long term trend channel that goes back to 1929, the Dow has instead erupted vertically through that resistance.
Dow, Monthly, Very Long Term:
The rest of this report is reserved for subscribers and focuses on technical analysis of price charts and indicators in stocks, bonds and additional fundamental analysis and conclusions for traders and investors for the short, intermediate, long and very long term.
EWT’s Hochberg continues his pathetic gibberish in the guise of wise Buddha like sayings:
’Inertia grips the S&P 500 as today’s 0.39% trading range was the smallest of the year, as shown on the Bloomberg chart above. Low volatility precedes high volatility and inaction leads to action, so expect some wide-ranging days in the not-too-distant future.’
No specificity, no plan or action of how to use this…Continue
Is it a concern when a long term super bear all of a sudden begins calling for new highs? Even when those new highs are part of coming ‘Armageddon’? Because EWT is now calling for that!
Hochberg is now calling for new highs (of course, the odds favor that outcome. The market is in an historic bull advance).
But for about 10 months straight, in the face…Continue
Elliott Wave International: Short and simple
I am not sure they fully understand that for most people, the purpose of the markets is, quite simply, to make money. An indication they might not share your goal (or any trader/investor’s goal) is they never provide practical guidance for trades.
For them, it seems that the more arcane the analysis the better. That seems their purpose. Not making money. In fact, they apparently are so disinterested in making money,…Continue
Robert Prechter/Steven Hochberg write a market update Monday, Wednesday, Friday.
The US stock market is open 6.5 hours per day, so they ‘update’ three times in a 33 stock market hours week, every week. Or approximately every 11 hours.
From March 2020 to November 2020 occurred one of the strongest bull market advances in the US stock market in decades. It was a highly persistent,…Continue
Elliott Wave Theorist’s Steve Hochberg recently wrote this:“As the bear market progresses, U.S. junk bond yields will eventually resemble China’s junk bond yields as world credit evaporates. The…Continue
Anyone who remotely follows the Prechter Hochberg wealth destruction series is aware that they are religious in their market view. They ‘know’ the true path of the stock market (all markets just as…Continue
There is information below from Sentiment Trader, describing what almost everyone knows: The 2020-2021, 16 month bull market, is one of the largest and sharpest in recent history. In case you do not…Continue
Anyone reading EWT and Prechter and Hochberg?Prechter hides behind one good commodity (but impossible to use ) call 13 years ago or so in 2008, and now makes another shoot for the moon commodity call…Continue