BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

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Beginners guide to master price action trading

The novice traders have a lot to learn from the expert traders. The expert traders know the INS and…See More
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Welcome to TheBullBear.com!


Current Orientation on U.S. Stocks

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Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency:

Short term-BULLISH, Intermediate term-BULLISH, Long term-BULLISH

Crude Oil:

Short term-Neutral, Intermediate term-Neutral, Long term-NEUTRAL

10-30 Year Treasury Yields:

Short term-Bullish, Intermediate term-Bullish, Long Term-Neutral

Gold:

Short term-Bearish, Intermediate Term-Bearish, Long Term-Neutral

  

Last Updated: 01-10-20


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Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading

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(The following is the Introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, "Secular Long Wave Building Towards 2020 Final Top")

I've been maintaining for quite some time that the current bull market is the final 5th wave of a Long Wave that goes back to 1949 and that when it comes to an end it will represent a paradigmatic shift of multi-generational proportions.  Financial, economic, political and societal crisis will become the order of the times.  The process leading up to the inflection point is likely still in progress.  In this report I'll detail the technical reasons why we may see an abrupt, tectonic shift in the next 6-12 months that will usher in a multi-decade epoch of adjustment and transformation.

Before I get into the analysis, I want to emphasize that while the process of change may entail a great deal of pain and woe, it is necessary and inevitable and part of the natural cyclic movements that all human-created structures transit.  I don't consider this to be "gloom and doom".  It is what it is.  It's simply a matter of recognizing the truth of the situation to the best of our ability and dealing with it accordingly.  As traders and investors and human beings, neither undue optimism nor unwarranted pessimism serve our success and well being.

The current technical setup bears a remarkable resemblance to that which preceded the end of the 2015-2016 Wave (2) of V correction. Nothing is more bullish than a failed bearish technical setup, and the "melt-up" thesis, or some variation of it, is likely to play out here.  After failing to break down from what was otherwise a perfectly reasonable intermediate term bearish scenario (similar to the failed breakdown in May 2016), the market is most likely setting up for new SPX highs and an eventual Wave (5) of V breakout run for big caps from the 2018-2019 Wave (4) correction.

There are many different scenarios that could play out here, but my overall take, the basis for which will be shown in this BullBear Market Report, is that US big cap markets are in the context of a topping process that terminates a 70 year Long Wave that started in 1949.  The technical topping process began in 2018 and likely has 6-12 months to go before fully complete.  The early 2018 and October-December 2018 declines served as  "shots across the bow" which began to transition long term technicals into bear market mode.  This is somewhat analogous to the way that 1998 began the long term technical shift and set the stage for the final 5th wave rally leading to the 2000 top as well as analogous to way that the early 2007 corrections set up the eventual final 2007 price top.

The final Wave (5) rally will be progressively technically weaker and will serve as a distribution opportunity for sellers.  Long term investment in equities is basically over and this last rally has about 20% upside potential and is likely to be of less than a year in duration, so is more of an intermediate term swing trade than a long term investment position.  Investors and traders  that are sitting on profits in any time frame need to take the this final rally as a last chance opportunities to exit.  There is already much evidence that this is precisely what corporate insiders are doing.

Here's a weekly chart of SPY which gives my basic view of the unfolding very long term topping process:

Go here to continue reading the full blog post

 

The rest of this report is reserved for subscribers and focuses on technical analysis of price charts and indicators in stocks, bonds and additional fundamental analysis and conclusions for traders and investors for the short, intermediate, long and very long term.

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Blog Posts

Secular Long Wave Building Towards 2020 Final Top

Posted by Steven Vincent on September 18, 2019 at 1:30pm 1 Comment

(The following is the Introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, "Secular Long Wave Building Towards 2020 Final Top")

I've been maintaining for quite some time that the current bull market is the final 5th wave of a Long Wave that goes back to 1949 and that when it comes to an end it will represent a paradigmatic shift of multi-generational proportions.  Financial,…

Continue

The Slow Turn of the Long Wave: Time for a Bull Market Correction

Posted by Steven Vincent on May 7, 2019 at 12:44pm 0 Comments

(This is the introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report)

 

At the December bottom I turned intermediate term bullish for the start of the final 5th wave of the Long Wave, anticipating a rally back towards the high. On the back of the Fed capitulation on its rate hiking cycle and balance sheet normalization program, most of the market…

Continue

The Long Wave, the Slow Turn and the Mother of All Bear Markets

Posted by Steven Vincent on January 16, 2019 at 10:00pm 0 Comments

(This is the introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report)

As 2017 emerged into the following year I noted that the big cap indices had shown characteristics of a parabolic blow-off run since the November 2016 election.  Technical analysts know that when a market is running persistently above trend, a significant mean reversion is…

Continue

Trading An Oversold Market

Posted by Bryan Leighton on December 26, 2018 at 1:46pm 0 Comments

Almost everyone in the trading business is talking about an oversold market at this stage of the game. Stocks are now entering correction territory and there could still be more selling down the road. Generally, some of the best rallies come during a bear market and this makes many traders such as myself willing to take a shot at the long side when stocks are so low. Unfortunately, the stock bounces that we have seen lately have been met with heavy selling pressure. Often, traders will…

Continue

Forum

Beginners guide to master price action trading

Started by Andrews Wright in Forex Dec 18, 2019. 0 Replies

The novice traders have a lot to learn from the expert traders. The expert traders know the INS and OUT of the Forex market. However, knowing the details is not enough. You have to create a strategy…Continue

On Days Like This Watch For Stocks That Are Showing Relative Strength $SBUX

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Jan 22, 2019. 0 Replies

Today, all of the major stock indexes are declining sharply lower falling by more than 1.0 percent on the session. This decline comes after a huge rally that started on December 26, 2018 and lead to…Continue

Options Expiration Week Is A Time For Institutional Game Playing

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Jan 14, 2019. 0 Replies

This coming Friday is options expiration for the month of January. Usually, the trading week leading into options expiration is filled with a lot of game playing by the institutional crowd. This is…Continue

Video Game Stocks Are under Selling Pressure, Here's The Next Trade $ATVI

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Dec 3, 2018. 0 Replies

As you know, all of the leading video game developers have been under selling pressure since October 2018. Video game developer stocks such as Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ:ATVI), Electronic Arts…Continue

 
 
 

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