Current Orientation on U.S. Stocks
Short term-BEARISH, Intermediate term-BEARISH, Long term-Neutral
Short term-BEARISH, Intermediate term-BEARISH, Long term-BEARISH
10-30 Year Treasury Yields:
Short term-BULLISH, Intermediate term-BULLISH, Long Term-Neutral
Short term-BEARISH, Intermediate Term-BEARISH, Long Term-Neutral
Last Updated: 09-03-20
Keeping You on the Right Side of the Markets
Financial Market Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading
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Let’s examine the current existing views on the mismatch between the economic crisis and the action in the financial system.
The “Disconnect Theory” retreads the Austrian view that has been around since Nixon first disconnected the dollar from the gold standard. It basically states that action in the Financial System is so far our of whack with the metrics of what are generally perceived to be “The Fundamentals” that, eventually, this disparity will have to collapse in on itself.
The “Fed Theory” is an extension of the time-honored neo-Keynesian “Don’t Fight the Fed” party line. It abandons any pretense of analysis and advocates for a fully lobotomized world-view. “Don’t bother to make any sense of it at all…cuz Fed”.
The minority "Fundamentalist Theory" assures us that the action in the Financial System is reflecting something fundamental. Most often that "something" is defined well within the parameters of established economic performance metrics. We are assured that GDP, employment, corporate profits, P/E ratios and other time-honored measures will inevitably reflect the soaring valuations being priced into the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.
The "Secular Systemic Shift Theory", an outlier minority viewpoint, sees the current period as a transition to a fundamentally new underlying economics requiring a thorough update and revision of all economic theory and a new set of analytical tools. This is a variant on the Strauss/Howe "Fourth Turning" generational shift perspective. While most "Fourth Turning" advocates see the current situation as a transition within the same Capitalist system, the proponents of this view see the present shift as both Secular and Systemic.
At BullBear Trading, we have been tracking the arrival of a “Secular Shift”, a phenomenon roughly equivalent to the Strauss/Howe “Fourth Turning”, since 2012. In 2018 I started to identify 2020 as the year that the “Shift” would make itself known. The combination of financial and economic crisis, de facto Civil War and de facto major power war between the US and China is the symptomatic manifestation of an underlying fundamental, systemic paradigm shift in progress.
In a recent essay, “Information is the New Capital”, I began to introduce some elements of a correlated paradigmatic shift into our understanding of Economics and its application to the Financial System. I recommend that readers have a look at that before they dive into the present analysis...
The rest of this report is reserved for subscribers and focuses on technical analysis of price charts and indicators in stocks, bonds and additional fundamental analysis and conclusions for traders and investors for the short, intermediate, long and very long term.
When the Elliott Wave Theorist (subscription service, pay to get your advice) issues a market opinion, I imagine Jimmy Cagney holding a machine gun at your head saying "you dirty rat". Then firing dozens of bullets.
Why this imagery and comparison? Imagine you want to kill someone financially (and demoralize them too!). How would you do it? Well,, the way they do it is a pretty good model. Make very strong impassioned arguments against the large trend in force so that people bet…Continue
Robert Prechter and EWI are in the business of providing market forecasts in exchange for subscription fees. The main markets they seem to cover are the stock markets, interest rates, precious metals, and the US Dollar.
Amazingly, they manage to get every single market’s major trend wrong consistently.
Wrong on the stock markets, bonds, gold, silver, the US…Continue
The service is called SHORT-TERM UPDATE (updated 3 X per week).
EWI and Hochberg have missed every important stock market rally and precious metals rally in the past 5-6 months (as of July 2020).
Actually, it is much worse than that, they have actively been on the wrong side, meaning they have been extremely bearish during these trends.
Comments such as 'it's time for gold to top', and similar comments like that, are understandable in people…Continue
Steve Hochberg at Elliott Wave Int'l is really a useful lesson in how NOT to approach (or trade) markets. Here is what I mean. He and the service (Short Term Update & their monthly report) are extremely bearish, and that has been true for nearly ever, and especially from the March 2020 lows.
He has been harping on sentiment indicators for months (almost from the lows in late March 2020 too,…Continue
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As you know, all of the leading video game developers have been under selling pressure since October 2018. Video game developer stocks such as Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ:ATVI), Electronic Arts…Continue