BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

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Amateur

It is remarkable the disrespect the Elliott Wave Theorist’s Steven Hochberg shows to the markets…See More
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NEW REPORT! Understanding The Apparent Mismatch Between Current Economic Conditions and the Financial System

SummaryExisting theories of economics and the financial system cannot match successfully with…See More
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Welcome to TheBullBear.com!

Current Orientation on U.S. Stocks

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Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency:

Short term-BULLISH, Intermediate term-BULLISH, Long term-Neutral

Crude Oil:

Short term-NEUTRAL, Intermediate term-NEUTRAL, Long term-BEARISH

10-30 Year Treasury Yields:

Short term-BEARISH, Intermediate term-BEARISH, Long Term-Neutral

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Short term-NEUTRAL, Intermediate Term-NEUTRAL, Long Term-Neutral

  

Last Updated: 06-21-20


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NEW REPORT!

Understanding The Apparent Mismatch

Between Current Economic Conditions

and the Financial System

Summary

  • Existing theories of economics and the financial system cannot match successfully with current conditions.
  • Long term data on stock index breadth, corporate earnings, Treasury yields and S&P 500 dividend yield strongly suggest a fundamental break with the past is in progress.
  • Past economic and financial system models, analytical tools and metrics will have to be entirely reconsidered and reconstructed.
  • The Secular Systemic Shift now underway is so profound and so far-reaching and so all-encompassing that it is probably analogous to the shift occasioned by the Age of Enlightenment, the Scientific Revolution, the American Revolution and (later) the Industrial Revolution.
Recently, in the wake of the dramatic, catalyzing events associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, analysts have struggled to match the action in the Economy with that of the Financial System. Existing disparities of inequality and maldistribution have been dramatically exacerbated as the financial indices have soared.  In no quarter is there found any real explanation for the utter failure of all existent theories to anticipate or explain our current experience. The general reaction is one of befuddled annoyance. Irrespective of viewpoint, left or right, economists and market analysts are trying to figure out why the emergent reality does not conform to their model of how things should be and the default tendency is to wag a finger of blame at the other side of the aisle.

THEORIES

Let’s examine the current existing views on the mismatch between the economic crisis and the action in the financial system.

The “Disconnect Theory” retreads the Austrian view that has been around since Nixon first disconnected the dollar from the gold standard. It basically states that action in the Financial System is so far our of whack with the metrics of what are generally perceived to be “The Fundamentals” that, eventually, this disparity will have to collapse in on itself.

The “Fed Theory” is an extension of the time-honored neo-Keynesian “Don’t Fight the Fed” party line. It abandons any pretense of analysis and advocates for a fully lobotomized world-view. “Don’t bother to make any sense of it at all…cuz Fed”.

The minority "Fundamentalist Theory" assures us that the action in the Financial System is reflecting something fundamental.  Most often that "something" is defined well within the parameters of established economic performance metrics.  We are assured that GDP, employment, corporate profits, P/E ratios and other time-honored measures will inevitably reflect the soaring valuations being priced into the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.

The "Secular Systemic Shift Theory", an outlier minority viewpoint, sees the current period as a transition to a fundamentally new underlying economics requiring a thorough update and revision of all economic theory and a new set of analytical tools.  This is a variant on the Strauss/Howe "Fourth Turning" generational shift perspective.  While most "Fourth Turning" advocates see the current situation as a transition within the same Capitalist system, the proponents of this view see the present shift as both Secular and Systemic.

At BullBear Trading, we have been tracking the arrival of a “Secular Shift”, a phenomenon roughly equivalent to the Strauss/Howe “Fourth Turning”, since 2012. In 2018 I started to identify 2020 as the year that the “Shift” would make itself known. The combination of financial and economic crisis, de facto Civil War and de facto major power war between the US and China is the symptomatic manifestation of an underlying fundamental, systemic paradigm shift in progress.

In a recent essay, “Information is the New Capital”, I began to introduce some elements of a correlated paradigmatic shift into our understanding of Economics and its application to the Financial System.  I recommend that readers have a look at that before they dive into the present analysis...

GO HERE to read the full report:

https://bit.ly/2ZJwaVe

The rest of this report is reserved for subscribers and focuses on technical analysis of price charts and indicators in stocks, bonds and additional fundamental analysis and conclusions for traders and investors for the short, intermediate, long and very long term.

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Blog Posts

Amateur

Posted by John on July 9, 2020 at 7:28am 0 Comments

It is remarkable the disrespect the Elliott Wave Theorist’s Steven Hochberg shows to the markets (and by extension his clients).  



Gold has been in bull markets for many months (4 + years) and they (EWT and Hochberg) have been bearish for a good % of gold’s price advance. Accompanied by a high degree of confidence.  



Sometimes after gold rises above Hochber’s previously identified ‘The High’ or (the 5th of the 5th (etc), destroying his analysis, he will then say ‘we wait…

Continue

NEW REPORT! Understanding The Apparent Mismatch Between Current Economic Conditions and the Financial System

Posted by Steven Vincent on July 8, 2020 at 9:00pm 0 Comments

Summary

  • Existing theories of economics and the financial system cannot match successfully with current conditions.
  • Long term data on stock index breadth,…
Continue

EWI - a trader's perspective

Posted by John on June 15, 2020 at 5:30pm 3 Comments

What I am amazed at is the lack of a serious trading approach.  No stops, no possibility they could be wrong, full on extremism in the call for a drop in the market dead ahead (and it's been like that for a long time).  They suffer from a complete lack of objectivity.  For them, nothing (or practically nothing) is or has been bullish in many years.  Every market event is seen as bearish, every social feature is seen as bearish.  They seem to practice a cult like message - we are the ones who…

Continue

The Dawning of a New Era: Post-Capitalism 1.0

Posted by Steven Vincent on April 18, 2020 at 10:26am 4 Comments

Summary
  • We are now in the post-capitalist era.  Markets no longer exist.
  • There has been an economic coup.
  • The virus was used to create a policy response that popped the Everything Bubble and facilitated cover to place the bankrupt and insolvent economy in receivership.
  • The Central Bank cartel is the receiver.
  • A managed reorganization is in…
Continue

Forum

Beginners guide to master price action trading

Started by Andrews Wright in Forex Dec 18, 2019. 0 Replies

The novice traders have a lot to learn from the expert traders. The expert traders know the INS and OUT of the Forex market. However, knowing the details is not enough. You have to create a strategy…Continue

On Days Like This Watch For Stocks That Are Showing Relative Strength $SBUX

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Jan 22, 2019. 0 Replies

Today, all of the major stock indexes are declining sharply lower falling by more than 1.0 percent on the session. This decline comes after a huge rally that started on December 26, 2018 and lead to…Continue

Options Expiration Week Is A Time For Institutional Game Playing

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Jan 14, 2019. 0 Replies

This coming Friday is options expiration for the month of January. Usually, the trading week leading into options expiration is filled with a lot of game playing by the institutional crowd. This is…Continue

Video Game Stocks Are under Selling Pressure, Here's The Next Trade $ATVI

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Dec 3, 2018. 0 Replies

As you know, all of the leading video game developers have been under selling pressure since October 2018. Video game developer stocks such as Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ:ATVI), Electronic Arts…Continue

 
 
 

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