BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

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EWI - a trader's perspective

What I am amazed at is the lack of a serious trading approach.  No stops, no possibility they could…See More
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Welcome to TheBullBear.com!

Current Orientation on U.S. Stocks

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Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency:

Short term-BULLISH, Intermediate term-BULLISH, Long term-Neutral

Crude Oil:

Short term-NEUTRAL, Intermediate term-NEUTRAL, Long term-BEARISH

10-30 Year Treasury Yields:

Short term-BEARISH, Intermediate term-BEARISH, Long Term-Neutral

Gold:

Short term-NEUTRAL, Intermediate Term-NEUTRAL, Long Term-Neutral

  

Last Updated: 06-21-20


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Financial Market Technical Analysis

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Towards a New Analytical Framework

  

At BullBear Trading, we have been anticipating an eventual very long term secular paradigm shift in markets, economics, politics and society since the start of the new long term bull market wave in 2011.  The expectation has been for a phenomenon roughly equivalent in character and significance to that which occurred in the 1929-1949 period, marking a 70 year cycle and functionally equivalent to what Strauss and Howe described as “The Fourth Turning”.  In the 2017-2018 time frame I started to project that the shift would come in 2020.  In January and February 2020 I told subscribers that there were technical signals which warranted caution for bullishly positioned traders and investors.

The secular shift has occurred.  The onset of the last shift was marked by the Crash of 1929 and subsequent Great Depression, and the current shift is marked by the Coronacrisis.  While the past can often inform the present, it’s also a reliable truth that historic cycles tend to rhyme rather than repeat.  Our current “Fourth Turning” is, at a minimum, as significant as the prior comparable shift, and more likely of a higher degree in that it involves a systemic shift and not just a secular shift within the context of the same ongoing system. Now that the specific features and characteristics are becoming clearer and more defined by the day, the time framing and scaling is also becoming more comprehensible.

On the one hand, we may say that the secular shift has occurred, in the sense that a “tipping point” has been reached, from which there is a forward momentum that makes any return to the context of the past paradigm impossible.  On the other hand, we may also say that the shift is a process that is ongoing and yet to be fully completed and consolidated.  Given the accelerating effects of technology and globalization, time is unfolding in shorter, compressed intervals, so that what may have required decades is transpiring within months or weeks.

I think that we can view the 2000-2020 period as both the extinguishing phase of the old paradigm as well as the gestational transitionary phase of the new paradigm.  While the 1929-1949 period was transitional in nature, giving birth to a new secular order in the course of a long labor over a protracted period of time, the birth of our currently newborn world was more sudden and akin to a c-section following a long pregnancy with the infant system violently ripped from History’s womb and spanked sharply into its first shrieking breaths.

Some of the features of the current secular systemic shift:

  • Global propaganda-induced fear
  • Global public policy panic
  • Public policy induced economic collapse
  • Economy placed in Central Bank receivership
  • De-facto state of political civil war (that threatens to tip into armed conflict)
  • De-facto state of asymmetrical, 4th Generation war between the United States and China (threatening to someday tip into actual armed conflict)
  • Social destabilization in developed nations
  • Certainty of an accelerating trend towards commodification of all consumer and industrial products
  • Certainty of an accelerating trend towards online and digital commerce, exchange, learning and socialization
  • Certainty of an accelerating trend towards robotization and automation of labor
  • Certainty of the accelerating implementation of societal, political and economic Artificial Intelligence management systems
  • Certainty of the majority of the population transitioned to dependency on various forms of Universal Basic Income

  

CONTINUE READING THE FULL REPORT:

The Secular Systemic Shift to Technocracy: Towards a New Analytical Framework

 

The rest of this report is reserved for subscribers and focuses on technical analysis of price charts and indicators in stocks, bonds and additional fundamental analysis and conclusions for traders and investors for the short, intermediate, long and very long term.

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BullBear Market Report

 


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Blog Posts

EWI - a trader's perspective

Posted by John on June 15, 2020 at 5:30pm 3 Comments

What I am amazed at is the lack of a serious trading approach.  No stops, no possibility they could be wrong, full on extremism in the call for a drop in the market dead ahead (and it's been like that for a long time).  They suffer from a complete lack of objectivity.  For them, nothing (or practically nothing) is or has been bullish in many years.  Every market event is seen as bearish, every social feature is seen as bearish.  They seem to practice a cult like message - we are the ones who…

Continue

The Dawning of a New Era: Post-Capitalism 1.0

Posted by Steven Vincent on April 18, 2020 at 10:26am 4 Comments

Summary
  • We are now in the post-capitalist era.  Markets no longer exist.
  • There has been an economic coup.
  • The virus was used to create a policy response that popped the Everything Bubble and facilitated cover to place the bankrupt and insolvent economy in receivership.
  • The Central Bank cartel is the receiver.
  • A managed reorganization is in…
Continue

Apocalypse Now? The Secular Shift at the Crest of the Long Wave

Posted by Steven Vincent on March 1, 2020 at 10:05pm 1 Comment

(The following is the Introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, "Apocalypse Now? The Secular Shift at the Crest of the Long Wave")

The last BullBear Market Report, issued on August 26, 2019, was entitled "…

Continue

Secular Long Wave Building Towards 2020 Final Top

Posted by Steven Vincent on September 18, 2019 at 1:30pm 1 Comment

(The following is the Introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, "Secular Long Wave Building Towards 2020 Final Top")

I've been maintaining for quite some time that the current bull market is the final 5th wave of a Long Wave that goes back to 1949 and that when it comes to an end it will represent a paradigmatic shift of multi-generational proportions.  Financial,…

Continue

Forum

Beginners guide to master price action trading

Started by Andrews Wright in Forex Dec 18, 2019. 0 Replies

The novice traders have a lot to learn from the expert traders. The expert traders know the INS and OUT of the Forex market. However, knowing the details is not enough. You have to create a strategy…Continue

On Days Like This Watch For Stocks That Are Showing Relative Strength $SBUX

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Jan 22, 2019. 0 Replies

Today, all of the major stock indexes are declining sharply lower falling by more than 1.0 percent on the session. This decline comes after a huge rally that started on December 26, 2018 and lead to…Continue

Options Expiration Week Is A Time For Institutional Game Playing

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Jan 14, 2019. 0 Replies

This coming Friday is options expiration for the month of January. Usually, the trading week leading into options expiration is filled with a lot of game playing by the institutional crowd. This is…Continue

Video Game Stocks Are under Selling Pressure, Here's The Next Trade $ATVI

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Dec 3, 2018. 0 Replies

As you know, all of the leading video game developers have been under selling pressure since October 2018. Video game developer stocks such as Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ:ATVI), Electronic Arts…Continue

 
 
 

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