BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

Steven Vincent's Blog (101)

Markets Are Forecasting A Trumpublican Victory And An Economic Boom In 2021

Oct. 25, 2020 11:45 AM ET


Summary
  • The details of the ongoing secular systemic shift will be shaped by the outcome of the November 3rd…
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Added by Steven Vincent on October 26, 2020 at 2:02pm — 1 Comment

Is a New Long Term Bull Phase in Stocks Already in Progress?

As regular subscribers to the BullBearMarket Report know, I have been tracking the onset of a long term Secular Systemic Shift since the last bull market began in 2011.  In 2018 I began pointing towards 2020 as the year that "Shift happens".  I think it's hard to dispute that, indeed, 2020 has proven to be a watershed year.

At this time we are less than a month away from the November 3 U.S. election and there is…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 16, 2020 at 5:00pm — 2 Comments

NEW REPORT! Understanding The Apparent Mismatch Between Current Economic Conditions and the Financial System

Summary

  • Existing theories of economics and the financial system cannot match successfully with current conditions.
  • Long term data on stock index breadth,…
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Added by Steven Vincent on July 8, 2020 at 9:00pm — No Comments

The Secular Systemic Shift to Technocracy: Towards a New Analytical Framework

Few readers will be unaware that our current era has been widely regarded as the Information Age.  The preceding epoch of the Industrial Revolution, marked by the production, distribution and consumption of goods, is regarded to have been superseded by a world increasingly dominated by the creation, collection, storage, collation, processing, distribution and consumption of Information.  1970 seems to be a generally…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 1, 2020 at 5:30pm — 2 Comments

The Dawning of a New Era: Post-Capitalism 1.0

Summary
  • We are now in the post-capitalist era.  Markets no longer exist.
  • There has been an economic coup.
  • The virus was used to create a policy response that popped the Everything Bubble and facilitated cover to place the bankrupt and insolvent economy in receivership.
  • The Central Bank cartel is the receiver.
  • A managed reorganization is in…
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Added by Steven Vincent on April 18, 2020 at 10:26am — 4 Comments

Apocalypse Now? The Secular Shift at the Crest of the Long Wave

(The following is the Introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, "Apocalypse Now? The Secular Shift at the Crest of the Long Wave")

The last BullBear Market Report, issued on August 26, 2019, was entitled "…

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Added by Steven Vincent on March 1, 2020 at 10:05pm — 1 Comment

Secular Long Wave Building Towards 2020 Final Top

(The following is the Introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, "Secular Long Wave Building Towards 2020 Final Top")

I've been maintaining for quite some time that the current bull market is the final 5th wave of a Long Wave that goes back to 1949 and that when it comes to an end it will represent a paradigmatic shift of multi-generational proportions.  Financial,…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 18, 2019 at 1:30pm — 1 Comment

The Slow Turn of the Long Wave: Time for a Bull Market Correction

(This is the introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report)

 

At the December bottom I turned intermediate term bullish for the start of the final 5th wave of the Long Wave, anticipating a rally back towards the high. On the back of the Fed capitulation on its rate hiking cycle and balance sheet normalization program, most of the market…

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Added by Steven Vincent on May 7, 2019 at 12:44pm — No Comments

The Long Wave, the Slow Turn and the Mother of All Bear Markets

(This is the introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report)

As 2017 emerged into the following year I noted that the big cap indices had shown characteristics of a parabolic blow-off run since the November 2016 election.  Technical analysts know that when a market is running persistently above trend, a significant mean reversion is…

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Added by Steven Vincent on January 16, 2019 at 10:00pm — No Comments

Shift Happens: Very Long Term Secular Shifts in US and Global Financial Markets and Economies in Progress

Here's the introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, Shift Happens: Very Long Term Secular Shifts in US and Global Financial Markets and Economies in Progress

Over the course of the last few BullBear Market Reports, I have been exploring the potential for a long term secular…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 23, 2018 at 9:28am — No Comments

A Significant Correction in 2015?

Traditional signals and fundamental and technical analysis really don't matter any more. They really don't. You can't stop this train. All aboard. Dow 18,000 by December 17th. Dow 20,000 soon. You can't lose. You'll never have this chance again.

(comment to a mildly bearish article on a popular financial blog)

Eventually, all bull markets will see significant corrections of price gains.  During the last secular…

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Added by Steven Vincent on January 14, 2015 at 1:36pm — No Comments

08/09/14 BullBear Market Report: Intermediate Term Bear Market?

08/09/14 BullBear Market Report: Intermediate Term Bear Market?

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 8, 2014 at 1:57pm — No Comments

U.S. Stocks Fifth Wave Rally in Progress

Since January I have been recommending long positions in Treasuries trading vehicles with a focus on the 20 Year+ Bond ETF, TLT.  Those positions performed very well, particularly relative to stocks, but it is time to exit and change orientation once again on Treasuries.  During the period that I was bullish on Treasuries I was neutral to bearish on stocks, calling for a corrective period.  January to May 2014 was indeed a largely corrective for stocks, but that has come to an end and a new…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 10, 2014 at 9:30pm — No Comments

SAMPLE REPORT: Did a New Bull Market Start in November 2012?

01/02/13 BullBear Market Report:

Did a New Bull Market Start in November 2012?

Posted by Steven Vincent on January 3, 2013 at 2:12pm in BullBear Traders

 

Did a new Bull Market in US…

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Added by Steven Vincent on February 19, 2014 at 11:30pm — No Comments

Stocks Wave 1 Bull Market Completing; Precious Metals Rallying

Since making a correction low on February 3rd, U.S. stock markets have seen a nice 5 day rally off of support and from a downside extended technical condition.  My overall take is that the markets have just seen the start of a 5th wave of a sequence that started in November 2012 with a maximum upside potential of SPX 1900.  I see limited upside and lots of downside potential in US equities over the next 1-4 months.  The risk/reward is not very favorable for longs, particularly in comparison…

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Added by Steven Vincent on February 12, 2014 at 5:30pm — No Comments

Wave 3 of New Secular Bull Market

Since the last BullBear Market Report, the US equities markets have undergone a Wave 2 correction of the first move in a new, primary, secular bull market that began in November 2012. While I continued to maintain a long term bullish orientation, the period since the May top produced a set of technical readings which strongly resembled conditions present at the 2007 and 2011 tops. I remained open to the possibility that a new cyclical bear market began in May but I continued to warn that if…

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Added by Steven Vincent on November 16, 2013 at 8:00pm — No Comments

The Death of Disasterism

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst

Are full of passionate intensity.

Yeats, "The Second Coming"

 

From late 2012 I have been gradually layering and developing the thesis that a secular bull market started in November of 2012 (with a possible…

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Added by Steven Vincent on July 11, 2013 at 3:06pm — No Comments

Intermarket Secular Shifts and the Great Rotation Trade: Long US Stocks, Short Treasuries

In the introduction to the last Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012:

Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2009. The actual situation of this market very closely parallels the 1974-1982 time frame. While the price bottom was made in 1974,…

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Added by Steven Vincent on May 15, 2013 at 3:30pm — No Comments

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