Traditional signals and fundamental and technical analysis really don't matter any more. They really don't. You can't stop this train. All aboard. Dow 18,000 by December 17th. Dow 20,000 soon. You can't lose. You'll never have this chance again.
(comment to a mildly bearish article on a popular financial blog)
Eventually, all bull markets will see significant corrections of price gains. During the last secular…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on January 14, 2015 at 1:36pm — No Comments
Added by Steven Vincent on October 8, 2014 at 1:57pm — No Comments
Since January I have been recommending long positions in Treasuries trading vehicles with a focus on the 20 Year+ Bond ETF, TLT. Those positions performed very well, particularly relative to stocks, but it is time to exit and change orientation once again on Treasuries. During the period that I was bullish on Treasuries I was neutral to bearish on stocks, calling for a corrective period. January to May 2014 was indeed a largely corrective for stocks, but that has come to an end and a new…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on June 10, 2014 at 9:30pm — No Comments
01/02/13 BullBear Market Report:
Did a New Bull Market Start in November 2012?
Did a new Bull Market in US…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on February 19, 2014 at 11:30pm — No Comments
Since making a correction low on February 3rd, U.S. stock markets have seen a nice 5 day rally off of support and from a downside extended technical condition. My overall take is that the markets have just seen the start of a 5th wave of a sequence that started in November 2012 with a maximum upside potential of SPX 1900. I see limited upside and lots of downside potential in US equities over the next 1-4 months. The risk/reward is not very favorable for longs, particularly in comparison…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on February 12, 2014 at 5:30pm — No Comments
Since the last BullBear Market Report, the US equities markets have undergone a Wave 2 correction of the first move in a new, primary, secular bull market that began in November 2012. While I continued to maintain a long term bullish orientation, the period since the May top produced a set of technical readings which strongly resembled conditions present at the 2007 and 2011 tops. I remained open to the possibility that a new cyclical bear market began in May but I continued to warn that if…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on November 16, 2013 at 8:00pm — No Comments
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Yeats, "The Second Coming"
From late 2012 I have been gradually layering and developing the thesis that a secular bull market started in November of 2012 (with a possible…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on July 11, 2013 at 3:06pm — No Comments
In the introduction to the last Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012:
Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2009. The actual situation of this market very closely parallels the 1974-1982 time frame. While the price bottom was made in 1974,…
Added by Steven Vincent on May 15, 2013 at 3:30pm — No Comments
In the March 10 BullBear Market Report, I concluded that the US equities markets had ended the long term bear market that started in 2000 with the November 2012 low and had begun a new, secular bull market:
This report comes down on the side of concluding that indeed a new, secular Bull Market has begun. While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave…
The last BullBear Market Report concluded that:
a new, secular Bull Market began in November 2012. While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave top could come in the vicinity of the 2007 highs, evidence is mounting that the 2011-2012 period was a stealth (E) wave ending a long term triangle and that recent price breakouts and changes to the technical character of the market mark the start of a very long term Major (V) bull market...
My current analysis…Continue
One of the factors that might temper long term bullishness with regards to the current US equities market is that there currently appear to be no leading, dynamic economic growth sectors. In the early stages of a secular bull market, however, the dynamic growth sectors that will lead the advance are often unclear or unknown. The picture may be starting to clarify itself. One area that appears poised to take off and add a dynamic growth component while reducing costs throughout the economy…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on March 25, 2013 at 7:30pm — No Comments
The last BullBear Market Report explored whether the long term Bear Market that began in 2000 may have ended in November of 2012. This report comes down on the side of concluding that indeed a new, secular Bull Market has begun. While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave top could come in the vicinity of the 2007 highs, evidence is mounting that the 2011-2012 period was an (E) wave of a…Continue
Will the Deficit as a percentage of GDP get down to World War II levels by the end of the Obama Administration?
It's interesting that there has been virtually no attention paid to the forthcoming 4th quarter earnings reports. Apparently the most fundamental of fundamentals supposedly underlying the movement of stock prices is…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on January 2, 2013 at 7:00pm — No Comments
What are the long term prospects for Corn and the grains complex? Without knowing anything about the current fundamentals of the market, my take is neutral to bearish.
The monthly chart of Corn is showing a series of RSI divergences and a rising wedge pattern:Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on December 19, 2012 at 4:30pm — No Comments
In the last BullBear Market Report issued on September 17, I proposed the following as the primary scenario facing the US equities markets:
SPX is making a B wave high in this area with a C wave decline to follow, eclipsing the 2012 bottom and potentially the 2011 low as well. The resulting bottom may mark the end of the bear market that started in 2000.…
Added by Steven Vincent on November 26, 2012 at 2:30pm — No Comments
Added by Steven Vincent on September 18, 2012 at 7:41pm — No Comments
Since the July 9th BullBear Market Report, the US stock market has apparently completed an ABCDE ascending triangle pattern to complete the rally off the June low. This is being confirmed by a mounting body of technical evidence which strongly suggests we have either seen the top to the rally or that it is nearby. The Introduction to the last report…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on July 24, 2012 at 3:30pm — No Comments
Here's yet another technical study which shows that we have been in a bear market since early 2011:
I'd been noticing relative weakness in the Midcaps so I decided to have a look. Mids cleanly outperformed SPX since the 2009 bottom but the ratio topped in April 2011, making a secondary lower high…Continue
The recent rally is in many ways comparable to the June 2011 rally. The technical setup has turned out to be very, very similar. The probabilities that markets will be chased higher on news this week does seem to be elevated, but this will almost certainly set up a magnificent shorting opportunity on a par with the July 2011 highs. So far we have seen "sell the news" reactions on the Spain banking bailout and Greece elections news and there is a good possibility we will see the same this…Continue
Added by Steven Vincent on June 19, 2012 at 1:14am — No Comments