Current Orientation on U.S. Stocks
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Financial Market Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading
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In the last BullBear Market Report I called for a 5th wave rally in the new secular bull market in US stocks that began in November 2012. The market did rally to a July high and now the the question on the table is whether or not the May-July rally represents the entirety of the 5th wave or merely the first wave of a larger scale sequence. The analysis in this report tends to support the conclusion that we have seen the completion of a 5 wave bullish impulsive Wave (1) sequence from the November 2012 low and the market is now in the early stages of a Wave (2) correction. Last weeks apparent low was most likely the A wave bottom to a larger, longer duration and probably more complex corrective process...
Since January I have been recommending long positions in Treasuries trading vehicles with a focus on the 20 Year+ Bond ETF, TLT. Those positions performed very well, particularly relative to stocks, but it is time to exit and change orientation once again on Treasuries. During the period that I was bullish on Treasuries I was neutral to bearish on stocks, calling for a corrective period. January to May 2014 was indeed a largely corrective for stocks, but that has come to an end and a new…Continue
Since making a correction low on February 3rd, U.S. stock markets have seen a nice 5 day rally off of support and from a downside extended technical condition. My overall take is that the markets have just seen the start of a 5th wave of a sequence that started in November 2012 with a maximum upside potential of SPX 1900. I see limited upside and lots of downside potential in US equities over the next 1-4 months. The risk/reward is not very favorable for longs, particularly in comparison…Continue
The United States Oil Fund LP (NYSEARCA:USO) dropped sharply again today after oil inventories showed a bigger build than expected. With this fall, oil is now into major support and likely ready to…Continue
The precious metals have come under some decent selling pressure, as GOLD is trading around $1275/oz. Following suit are the gold miners and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (USA)(NYSE:AEM) is no exception, as…Continue
The iShares Dow Jones Transport. Avg. (NYSEARCA:IYT) has soared over the last 18 months, running from $86.50 to $152.00. This is a whopping 75% increase in value. Today a major resistance level was…Continue
Hello Steve,I was really looking forward to listening to your 9/17 report to hear your thoughts on the dollar and gold, which have been on the move. However, your embedded player is linked to your…Continue