Current Orientation on U.S. Stocks
Keeping You on the Right Side of the Markets
Financial Market Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading
Get the balanced, objective analysis you need to profit from timing moves in the stock market, gold, precious metals, commodities, treasuries, bonds or forex!
Eventually, all bull markets will see significant corrections of price gains. During the last secular bull market from 1982-2000, SPX saw corrections of 14.18%, 35.94%, 20.36% and 24.51% on its way to a gain of 1419%.
Even the terrifying 1987 crash was nothing but a correction in a perfectly trending long term bull market.
In my view SPX and US equities in general are in the process of finishing a bull wave that started in November 2012. It is possible that the bull wave can see a significant extension from current levels before it completes, but analysis tends to support limited upside and substantial downside risk going forward. When equally viable Elliott Wave counts compete, the technician needs to examine the technicals, liquidity, sentiment and psychology of the market to see which count is better supported by underlying conditions. In my view there is substantially more evidence to support a correction than there is to support a bullish extension at this time. For this picture to change, we would need to see a fairly immediate and aggressive bull breakout move at the outset of 2015. Failing that, if we see a continuation of last week's selling, it is likely that a sizable correction will be nearby.
The housing market is hanging on by a thread. The thread that is holding it up? Super low interest rates. This is keeping the real estate market floating but significant weakness in high end housing spells trouble. While many areas across the United States are showing increases in housing prices, this is mostly in middle to low end housing. Once you move north of $1+ million, demand has cratered. Why? The upper income buyers have too many questions about the future of housing in relation to…Continue
The U.S. stock market closed on Friday flat to slightly lower. Institutions kept the lid on the news that was breaking a world away to make sure the stock options they had sold to investors expired worthless, maximizing profits. Options expiration is a multi-million Dollar payoff to institutions, thus important to control. An attempted miliatary coup in Turkey. The Middle East, a hot bed for terror already, had just blown up again with more violence. Turkey is a…Continue
This morning saw the Bank of England surprising the financial markets by not lowering interest rates as had been expected. This move is shocking because it goes in the face of all other global central banks and their easy money policy. After Brexit, the Bank of England was in a perfect position to lower rates but chose to stand firm. Could this be a new wave of central bank thought? Is easy money policy not the answer to…Continue
The VIX is slightly higher today even with the big stock market bounce. This is a warning sign that the markets may not hold their gains or we could see some selling in the next few days. Basically, it tells us big money/smart money is buying protection here. This morning the BOE (Bank of England) surprised by not raising interest rates, JPMorgan Chase beat earnings and inflation data showed more inflation than expected. Regardless of the initial bullish move in the markets, be on…Continue
3M Co (NYSE:MMM) is collapsing today, dropping to $180.14 -1.28 (-0.71%). This is following an all-time high yesterday. While most investors marvel at the stock move and want to buy, it is probably…Continue
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) is rallying sharply. They report earnings after the market closes today. Analysts expect earnings per share of $0.53 on revenue of $13.54 billion. Intel Corp. is…Continue
Simple chart tactics can be the difference between making money and losing money. This was seen today when the exact high on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) could have been found by…Continue
FORM Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ:FH) has been on my radar for some time because of their unique wireless phone charger that will work with the iPhone. Considering Apple Inc (AAPL) says it has no plans to…Continue