Current Orientation on U.S. Stocks
Keeping You on the Right Side of the Markets
Financial Market Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading
Get the balanced, objective analysis you need to profit from timing moves in the stock market, gold, precious metals, commodities, treasuries, bonds or forex!
U.S. stocks have made a clear intermediate term top and more declines are likely next week. Treasuries have traded inversely to stocks and the long bond has broken out from a well defined reverse Head and Shoulders bottom. We should hear calls for a bear market rise to a crescendo over the next 5-8 sessions as SPX breaks its uptrend from the November 2012 low and tests its 200 day exponential moving average. At that point the market will be rather downside extended on the daily indicators and there will be a good setup for a final rally to the 1900-1915 area. Early bears will need to be shaken out and silenced before the Major Wave (2) correction can begin. Technically, the market topped in the January to March time frame and rallies to higher highs were marked by bear divergences on the daily, weekly and even monthly charts. One could argue that the technical picture has deteriorated sufficiently to call for a major correction right here. While I suspect there will be a few sessions in the near future that will convince many market participants that the long expected and widely anticipated correction is indeed upon us, I think there is still room for another leg up to finish the portrait of technical bearishness on a scale sufficient to engender a real correction of at least 38.2% of the run from the November 2012 secular bull market launch point. Downside targets ranging from 1680-1620 appear to be likely. Is it possible that "The Big One" heralded by the disasterists has arrived? I don't see a technical picture that rises to that level. We may see a technical picture that equals the bearish setups at the 2000 and 2007 tops if we do get the final rally that I anticipate. But if I am correct and we are in a new secular bull market, that will result in a Major Wave (2) correction, not a new bear market. As I have been saying for quite some time, most analysts are going to be off in their projections and targeting because they erroneously place the start of the new bull market at the March 2009 low. In my view the bull is still relatively new and not "long in the tooth". It began in the vicinity of the November 2012 low.
BullBear Trading 2014 Treasuries
BullBear Trading 2014 Precious Metals
BullBear Trading 2014 SPX
Treasuries Trade 2013
Since making a correction low on February 3rd, U.S. stock markets have seen a nice 5 day rally off of support and from a downside extended technical condition. My overall take is that the markets have just seen the start of a 5th wave of a sequence that started in November 2012 with a maximum upside potential of SPX 1900. I see limited upside and lots of downside potential in US equities over the next 1-4 months. The risk/reward is not very favorable for longs, particularly in comparison…Continue
Since the last BullBear Market Report, the US equities markets have undergone a Wave 2 correction of the first move in a new, primary, secular bull market that began in November 2012. While I continued to maintain a long term bullish orientation, the period since the May top produced a set of technical readings which strongly resembled conditions present at the 2007 and 2011 tops. I remained open to the possibility that a new cyclical bear market began in May but I continued to warn that if…Continue
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Yeats, "The Second Coming"
From late 2012 I have been gradually layering and developing the thesis that a secular bull market started in November of 2012 (with a possible…Continue
Baidu Inc (NASDAQ:BIDU) is known as the Chinese Google. That comparison alone tells you this company is a powerhouse. The key thing to understand is that China has over 1.3 billion people while the…Continue
Late last week the markets crumbled as global issues took center stage. There were significant worries that Russia might expand its invasion to more than just Crimea. Even with Crimea voting to join…Continue
This morning, leading retailer Kohls Corp (NYSE:KSS) is coming under some selling pressure. The popular retailer is falling lower by 0.76 cents to $55.13 a share. Short term day traders should keep…Continue