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Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading
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In the last BullBear Market Report we took an in depth look at the very long term index charts and considered the possibility that a secular market shift could be approaching. This examination was prompted by the parabolic action in the major US market indices, Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500, from November 2016 through January 2018. During that parabolic run, upper trendline resistance was continually broken while lower trendlines increased their angles of ascent following each minor pullback. On the Dow monthly and quarterly charts, the major long term trend channels going back to the 1932 or 1949 market price lows were either breached to the upside or nearly approached from below, depending on the charting of the channel. Investor expectations ran hot in anticipation of the tax reform bill and even hotter after it was enacted. The Dow ran nearly 50% higher and SPX leapt almost 40% in that time and was followed, as parabolic runs always are, with a dramatic collapse in February of this year. Since all of this occurred in the context of a very long term Elliott Wave (V) count (the fifth wave of a move considered to be its final), it seemed appropriate to crack open the discussion on the potential for an eventual (though not immediate) epic bear market turn.
Price and technical action since that time has continued to beg the question, and a current consideration of the technical evidence would, on balance, lead to the conclusion that the current bull market is in its latter stages. Given that the setup is for an either long term bear market (correcting the bull market that began in 2011) or very long term bear market (correcting the entire secular period from 1949), it's more likely that the topping process has only just begun and that the bull wave has yet to fully complete. Having said that, the probability is that upside will be relatively limited and that any further rallies will be subjected to selling distribution on an ongoing basis. The charts tend to suggest that bull market conditions may drag out another 10-24 months before shifting into a bear market.
Supporting these conclusions are significant developments in other areas of the financial markets and the domestic and global economies, including:
This report includes charting and analysis of the following:
Does anybody here follow the Uranium sector? Talk about a bear market and excellent risk-reward for anyone with patience and a longer time horizon?
On the monthly chart of URA (uranium equity ETF), it looks like it will complete a massive multi-year base any month now. The fundamentals are incredibly bullish and demand has begun to outstrip supply.
I welcome any discussion on Uranium.
Enjoy the rest of your…Continue
Shares of GoDaddy Inc (GDDY) were collapsing for the third day in a row before a strong bounce took place at $72.18. The reason for this bounce was easily predicted by pro traders. If you connect the lows of the stock over the last 6 months, the lows all line up perfectly. Today's lows went right to the trend line (as seen in the chart below). Overall, pro traders expect only a day or two bounce, then a massive break lower on GoDaddy. They are looking for a $65.00 target on the stock…Continue
Shares of Sprint (S) have been under a ton of pressure since early 2017, once word leaked out that the T-Mobile deal was unlikely to happen. The stock fell from nearly $10 to its current $5 range. However, even with the tough market conditions, Sprint is showing signs of life. Just in the last week, Sprint jumped from its 52 week low of $4.81 to $5.22. This $5.22 level represents the daily 50 moving average and a major trend line resistance point (as seen on the chart below). Show it…Continue
Shares of Celgene Corp (CELG) have a nasty chart and pro traders are alerting investors. The stock price is currently forming a classic bear flag pattern. To make matters worse, the daily 20, 50 and…Continue
Texas Instruments Inc (NASDAQ:TXN) is a leading chip stock that has been declining since late January 2018. At that time, the stock traded as high as $120.75 a share. Today, TXN stock is trading at…Continue
The stock chart on oil could signal a massive collapse in the coming months. Spot crude is trading at $66.50, hitting a long-term trend line of major support. However, if oil breaks below this level,…Continue
Mylan NV (NASDAQ:MYL) is a leading developer of branded and generic drugs. The stock has been slumping since peaking in late January 2018 at $46.72 a share. Since that high pivot, the stock has…Continue