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Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading
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Eventually, all bull markets will see significant corrections of price gains. During the last secular bull market from 1982-2000, SPX saw corrections of 14.18%, 35.94%, 20.36% and 24.51% on its way to a gain of 1419%.
Even the terrifying 1987 crash was nothing but a correction in a perfectly trending long term bull market.
In my view SPX and US equities in general are in the process of finishing a bull wave that started in November 2012. It is possible that the bull wave can see a significant extension from current levels before it completes, but analysis tends to support limited upside and substantial downside risk going forward. When equally viable Elliott Wave counts compete, the technician needs to examine the technicals, liquidity, sentiment and psychology of the market to see which count is better supported by underlying conditions. In my view there is substantially more evidence to support a correction than there is to support a bullish extension at this time. For this picture to change, we would need to see a fairly immediate and aggressive bull breakout move at the outset of 2015. Failing that, if we see a continuation of last week's selling, it is likely that a sizable correction will be nearby.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) is a leading defense and aerospace company. The stock has been one of the best performing equities over the past four years. Finally, LMT stock is pulling back over the past four trading sessions. The stock is now close to testing its 20-day moving average. Traders should note that this 20-day moving average is minor support so there is a good chance that the stock could move lower. The daily chart is signaling very solid support around the…Continue
Shares of Universal Display Corporation (NASDAQ:OLED) have one of the tightest, nastiest bear flag formations I have seen. There are high odds of this stock taking a major leg lower in the coming weeks. The first target is $108 and the second target is $90. The key here is the recent news from just days ago that many Asian companies are over-producing OLED displays. Asia and specifically China have a history of overproducing things and dumping them on the overall market, killing…Continue
Shares of CSX Corporation (NASDAQ:CSX) fell after the transport stock reported earnings that beat Wall Street expectations. Does it sound weird, it is falling on an earnings beat? Upon a closer look, some accounting maneuvers allowed for that beat. If you back out those shady dealings, CSX Corporation actually missed earnings. This explains why it is falling. Being a technical chart trader, I have been bearish on CSX Corporation. I just cannot make sense of a railroad stock trading at…Continue
Shares of Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) surged in early trading, hitting new all-time highs at $208.61. However, the rally faded as the day dragged on with the stock giving back all the gains and closing flat at $206.44. This reversal from all-time highs increases the odds exponentially that a top is in on the aerospace company. Boeing Co has an official topping tail in place and should now start selling lower. The next wave of selling will take the stock to the daily 50 moving average, which also…Continue
In recent weeks, pharma plays like Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl (VRX) and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA) have surged. Valeant is up almost 100% since October and Teva is up almost 50%. In…Continue
Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) was upgraded yesterday. Mind you, this came after a run in the stock from $154 to $188. For some reason, an analyst thought it was the right time to upgrade…Continue
You will see that most of the people are trading with either major currency pairs or with minor currency pairs. Whatever they are trading with, there are more traders with minor currency pairs in…Continue
Shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT) have been on a rampage of late. Since early October, the retailer has seen their stock price jump from the $77 range to a 52 week high of $91.98 on Monday,…Continue