Current Orientation on U.S. Stocks
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Financial Market Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading
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In the last BullBear Market Report I called for a 5th wave rally in the new secular bull market in US stocks that began in November 2012. The market did rally to a July high and now the the question on the table is whether or not the May-July rally represents the entirety of the 5th wave or merely the first wave of a larger scale sequence. The analysis in this report tends to support the conclusion that we have seen the completion of a 5 wave bullish impulsive Wave (1) sequence from the November 2012 low and the market is now in the early stages of a Wave (2) correction. Last weeks apparent low was most likely the A wave bottom to a larger, longer duration and probably more complex corrective process...
Since January I have been recommending long positions in Treasuries trading vehicles with a focus on the 20 Year+ Bond ETF, TLT. Those positions performed very well, particularly relative to stocks, but it is time to exit and change orientation once again on Treasuries. During the period that I was bullish on Treasuries I was neutral to bearish on stocks, calling for a corrective period. January to May 2014 was indeed a largely corrective for stocks, but that has come to an end and a new…Continue
Since making a correction low on February 3rd, U.S. stock markets have seen a nice 5 day rally off of support and from a downside extended technical condition. My overall take is that the markets have just seen the start of a 5th wave of a sequence that started in November 2012 with a maximum upside potential of SPX 1900. I see limited upside and lots of downside potential in US equities over the next 1-4 months. The risk/reward is not very favorable for longs, particularly in comparison…Continue
This morning, leading off-price apparel and home fashions retailer The TJX Companies Inc (NYSE:TJX) is declining lower after reporting earnings. The TJX Companies Inc operates its stores under the…Continue
The iShares Dow Jones Transport. Avg. (NYSEARCA:IYT) has continue to rally to new all-time highs in recent days. Even today, with the market under pressure, transports are higher. Why? Simply put,…Continue
Just a couple months ago, Janet Yellen issued a warning that biotechnology may be in a bubble. Today, the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (ETF) (NASDAQ:IBB) are 20% higher. While Janet Yellen was…Continue
The United States Oil Fund LP (NYSEARCA:USO) dropped sharply again today after oil inventories showed a bigger build than expected. With this fall, oil is now into major support and likely ready to…Continue