BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

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Options Expiration Week Is A Time For Institutional Game Playing

This coming Friday is options expiration for the month of January. Usually, the trading week…See More
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Trading An Oversold Market

Almost everyone in the trading business is talking about an oversold market at this stage of the…See More
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Here's the introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, Shift Happens: Very Long Term Secular Shifts in US and Global Financial Markets and Economies in Progress

Over the course of the last few BullBear Market Reports, I have been exploring the potential for a long term secular shift in the financial markets.  Analysis has suggested strongly that trends in force going back to 2011 and 1980 and 1949 and the underlying structures supporting them are in process of being reversed and supplanted.  Continued developments since the last report in July have tended to confirm this analysis.  Such shifts are akin to the gradual turning of a large craft such as an ocean liner or aircraft carrier.  It's a process that takes time even after the rudder has been turned.  Evidence is continuing to surface that the change of direction is forthcoming but not imminent. Here are some key snippets from the March 2018 BullBear Market Report, "Evaluating the Potential for a Secular Market Shift":

Since the closing of the gold window by Nixon there have been prominent and persistent voices which warned that fundamentally flawed financial system conditions would lead to long term catastrophe for the US and global economy.  Those voices reached a crescendo during the serial market crises of 2000-2011.  Now, after a 9 year rise in US stock markets, such cautionary narratives are difficult to find.  Fears of debt bubble collapse scenarios have given way to complacency and the blanket assumption that central banker machinations have all the angles covered.

Experienced market participants know that when all fear (or conversely, optimism) has been extinguished it is time to take a hard look at the contrarian view. In this report we will study the long term technical view of markets and set aside any assumptions about the future.  Technical analysis is both a science and an art, and applying appropriate measures of each, let's tune into the message of the markets with an open mind.

Is a significant secular shift possible at this juncture?  Is it time to consider the possibility that the existing financial, economic and policy paradigm is no longer sustainable and due for dislocation and reversal?  Has the epoch of central banking Financialism run its course?

This study tends to support the general notion that now is the time for investors to be asking questions about the viability of the long term trend.  It also supports the analysis that the bull market started in the 2011 time frame. It shows us consistently that it is the trend from 2011 that traders need to keep a watchful eye upon as well as the 50 week EMA.  From a trading point of view, it's quite helpful to have some clear criteria for recognizing the end of a trend.  In that light, while there is likely to be a rally in the primary indices, when that comes it is likely that some key sectors will not participate or will participate marginally.  The same underperforming sectors are likely to break down first, giving advanced warning that the general market will be soon to follow.

In the subsequent report published for subscribers in July, "Final Bull Market Wave Begins As Long Term Market Top Approaches", these themes were fleshed out further in the context of expectations for a rally to new highs in the major indices:

In the last BullBear Market Report we took an in depth look at the very long term index charts and considered the possibility that a secular market shift could be approaching.  This examination was prompted by the parabolic action in the major US market indices, Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500, from November 2016 through January 2018.  During that parabolic run, upper trendline resistance was continually broken while lower trendlines increased their angles of ascent following each minor pullback.  On the Dow monthly and quarterly charts, the major long term trend channels going back to the  1932 or 1949 market price lows were either breached to the upside or nearly approached from below, depending on the charting of the channel.  Investor expectations ran hot in anticipation of the tax reform bill and even hotter after it was enacted.  The Dow ran nearly 50% higher and SPX leapt almost 40% in that time and was followed, as parabolic runs always are, with a dramatic collapse in February of this year.    Since all of this occurred in the context of a very long term Elliott Wave (V) count (the fifth wave of a move considered to be its final), it seemed appropriate to crack open the discussion on the potential for an eventual (though not immediate) epic bear market turn. Price and technical action since that time has continued to beg the question, and a current consideration of the technical evidence would, on balance, lead to the conclusion that the current bull market is in its latter stages.  Given that the setup is for an either long term bear market (correcting the bull market that began in 2011) or very long term bear market (correcting the entire secular period from 1949), it's more likely that the topping process has only just begun and that the bull wave has yet to fully complete.  Having said that, the probability is that upside will be relatively limited and that any further rallies will be subjected to selling distribution on an ongoing basis.  The charts tend to suggest that bull market conditions may drag out another 10-24 months before shifting into a bear market. Supporting these conclusions are significant developments in other areas of the financial markets and the domestic and global economies, including:
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Blog Posts

Trading An Oversold Market

Posted by Bryan Leighton on December 26, 2018 at 1:46pm 0 Comments

Almost everyone in the trading business is talking about an oversold market at this stage of the game. Stocks are now entering correction territory and there could still be more selling down the road. Generally, some of the best rallies come during a bear market and this makes many traders such as myself willing to take a shot at the long side when stocks are so low. Unfortunately, the stock bounces that we have seen lately have been met with heavy selling pressure. Often, traders will…

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NASDAQ 100 $QQQ Upside Target & Short Trigger

Posted by Bryan Leighton on November 7, 2018 at 3:14pm 0 Comments

The NASDAQ 100 is surging today following the Democrats retaking the House. The reason for the rally? Just days ago, President Trump threatened to file anti-trust cases against the big tech companies and claim they were monopolies. Investors believe that the Democrats will neutralize that threat in the near-term. As tech surges higher, investors should be ready to pull the trigger on the short side when price hits $178.00. This is a major technical resistance and all technical chart…

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Shift Happens: Very Long Term Secular Shifts in US and Global Financial Markets and Economies in Progress

Posted by Steven Vincent on October 23, 2018 at 9:28am 0 Comments

Here's the introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, Shift Happens: Very Long Term Secular Shifts in US and Global Financial Markets and Economies in Progress

Over the course of the last few BullBear Market Reports, I have been exploring the potential for a long term secular…

Continue

Uranium sector

Posted by Lleyton Davies on October 13, 2018 at 8:12pm 0 Comments

Hello!

Does anybody here follow the Uranium sector? Talk about a bear market and excellent risk-reward for anyone with patience and a longer time horizon?

On the monthly chart of URA (uranium equity ETF), it looks like it will complete a massive multi-year base any month now. The fundamentals are incredibly bullish and demand has begun to outstrip supply.

I welcome any discussion on Uranium.

Enjoy the rest of your…

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Forum

Options Expiration Week Is A Time For Institutional Game Playing

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion on Monday. 0 Replies

This coming Friday is options expiration for the month of January. Usually, the trading week leading into options expiration is filled with a lot of game playing by the institutional crowd. This is…Continue

Video Game Stocks Are under Selling Pressure, Here's The Next Trade $ATVI

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Dec 3, 2018. 0 Replies

As you know, all of the leading video game developers have been under selling pressure since October 2018. Video game developer stocks such as Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ:ATVI), Electronic Arts…Continue

Kind Words From BullBear Trading Members

Started by Steven Vincent in General Market Discussion. Last reply by Steven Vincent Nov 1, 2018. 22 Replies

 I receive many unsolicited comments from appreciative BullBear Traders.  I really do work very hard to "keep you on the right side of the markets" so it makes my day to receive such kind, sincere…Continue

Celgene Corp $CELG Chart Signals Trouble

Started by Bryan Leighton in General Market Discussion Sep 19, 2018. 0 Replies

Shares of Celgene Corp (CELG) have a nasty chart and pro traders are alerting investors. The stock price is currently forming a classic bear flag pattern. To make matters worse, the daily 20, 50 and…Continue

 
 
 

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