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05/15/13 BullBear Market Report
Intermarket Secular Shifts
and the Great Rotation Trade:
Long US Stocks, Short Treasuries

 

In the introduction to the last Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012:

Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2009. The actual situation of this market very closely parallels the 1974-1982 time frame. While the price bottom was made in 1974, the actual secular bull did not begin until the 1982 low. Our contemporary 2009 bottom and November 2012 low are playing the same role and function. While a great many market participants believe that this bull is "long in the tooth" and fret that the market is at or near the prior all time highs, a correct understanding of the actual context of the current market setup shows that instead we are yet in the early stages of a secular bull.  It's also important to note that while skepticism regarding the market rally is not as negative as it was in 2010 and 2011, it is roughly comparable to the period of the 1982 breakout.  Now as then, optimism is growing with a lingering backdrop of deep skepticism and fear.  The general investing public is still largely ensconced on the safety of bonds or in cash.

Even as the US markets continue to hit fresh all time highs on a nearly daily basis, many commentators and analysts feel that the market is "high" and are fearful of buying.  The misconception that the bull market started in 2009 has set up a fierce bull run that is currently targeting the 1695-1700 area on the SPX futures by early June and approximately 1760 by early August.

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This edition of BBMR includes:

INTRODUCTION, including fundamental analysis.

Chart Analysis

  • SPX
  • SPX Equal Weighted
  • NASDAQ COMPOSITE
  • NASDAQ 100
  • SMH

Technical Indicators

  • RSI
  • MACD
  • STOCHASTICS
  • CCI
  • HOURLY, WEEKLY, DAILY, MONTHLY
  • COMPARISONS TO 1982 BULL MARKET INITIATION
  • TRIN

 

BONDS

  • 30 YEAR TREASURY
  • TOTAL TREASURY MARKET INDEX
  • CORPORATE BOND INDEX
  • 2 YEAR TREASURY YIELD
  • SPX:30 YEAR TREASURY RATIO
  • SPX:TOTAL TREASURY INDEX RATIO
  • SPX:BOND ETF RATIO
  • TLT:SPY
  • TLT, VCLT, BND, JNK, MUNI
  • IEI (3-7 YEAR TREASUEY ETF)
  • IEF (7-10 YEAR TREASURY ETF)
  • MUNICIPAL BOND ETF
  • 2 YEAR TREASURY YIELD
  • 30 YEAR TREASURY:US DOLLAR INDEX RATIO

 

US DOLLAR

CRUDE OIL

SENTIMENT

A LESSON FROM JESSE LIVERMORE

READ THE FULL REPORT HERE

  


 
BullBear Trading 2013 SPX

VIEW BULLBEAR SPX 2010 TRADING HISTORY

VIEW BULLBEAR SPX 2011 TRADING HISTORY

VIEW BULLBEAR SPX 2012 TRADING HISTORY


SAMPLE REPORT: 06/01/11 BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT


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Blog Posts

Intermarket Secular Shifts and the Great Rotation Trade: Long US Stocks, Short Treasuries

Posted by Steven Vincent on May 15, 2013 at 3:30pm 0 Comments

In the introduction to the last Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012:

Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2009. The actual situation of this market very closely parallels the 1974-1982 time frame. While the price bottom was made in 1974,…

Continue

Long Term Bullish on US Equities

Posted by Steven Vincent on April 29, 2013 at 12:00pm 1 Comment

In the March 10 BullBear Market Report, I concluded that the US equities markets had ended the long term bear market that started in 2000 with the November 2012 low and had begun a new, secular bull market:

This report comes down on the side of concluding that indeed a new, secular Bull Market has begun. While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave…

Continue

Time for a Bull Market Correction

Posted by Steven Vincent on April 3, 2013 at 6:00pm 1 Comment

The last BullBear Market Report concluded that:

a new, secular Bull Market began in November 2012. While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave top could come in the vicinity of the 2007 highs, evidence is mounting that the 2011-2012 period was a stealth (E) wave ending a long term triangle and that recent price breakouts and changes to the technical character of the market mark the start of a very long term Major (V) bull market...

My current analysis…

Continue

3d Systems: Is the 3d Printing Leader a Buy Here?

Posted by Steven Vincent on March 25, 2013 at 7:30pm 0 Comments

One of the factors that might temper long term bullishness with regards to the current US equities market is that there currently appear to be no leading, dynamic economic growth sectors.  In the early stages of a secular bull market, however, the dynamic growth sectors that will lead the advance are often unclear or unknown.  The picture may be starting to clarify itself.  One area that appears poised to take off and add a dynamic growth component while reducing costs throughout the economy…

Continue

Forum

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 18 2013

Started by alayoua mbark in Forex 22 hours ago. 0 Replies

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 18 2013 Dollar Strengthens, Stocks Soar as Traders Position for FOMC Yesterday we saw how much of a difference a few hours can make with the dollar…Continue

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 17 2013

Started by alayoua mbark in Forex yesterday. 0 Replies

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 17 2013 Dollar Outlook Next Week Hinges on Bernanke The month of June has proven to be an extremely volatile period in the forex market as the U.S.…Continue

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 14 2013

Started by alayoua mbark in Forex on Friday. 0 Replies

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 14 2013 Draghi says OMT necessary, effective and within ECB mandate Mario Draghi defended the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) a day after the ECB…Continue

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 13 2013

Started by alayoua mbark in Forex on Thursday. 0 Replies

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 13 2013 IMF approves €657 million bailout tranche for Portugal The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the seventh tranche of Portugal's…Continue

 
 
 

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