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Financial Market Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading
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Eventually, all bull markets will see significant corrections of price gains. During the last secular bull market from 1982-2000, SPX saw corrections of 14.18%, 35.94%, 20.36% and 24.51% on its way to a gain of 1419%.
Even the terrifying 1987 crash was nothing but a correction in a perfectly trending long term bull market.
In my view SPX and US equities in general are in the process of finishing a bull wave that started in November 2012. It is possible that the bull wave can see a significant extension from current levels before it completes, but analysis tends to support limited upside and substantial downside risk going forward. When equally viable Elliott Wave counts compete, the technician needs to examine the technicals, liquidity, sentiment and psychology of the market to see which count is better supported by underlying conditions. In my view there is substantially more evidence to support a correction than there is to support a bullish extension at this time. For this picture to change, we would need to see a fairly immediate and aggressive bull breakout move at the outset of 2015. Failing that, if we see a continuation of last week's selling, it is likely that a sizable correction will be nearby.
Did you see the price action on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) today? The stock opened sharply higher before seeing about 1 hour of hard, heavy selling. This took the stock from a big gain to negative. After the first hour, Alibaba has slowly floated higher back to the flat line and slightly positive on extremely light volume.
So what does this mean? Why is it so significant? The heavy volume selling which last an hour was major institutions unloading. They always sell…Continue
Using a measured move method, I calculated the probable top on Twilio Inc (NYSE:TWLO). The stock will continue to squeeze higher until $83.00. The current price is $69.75. The method used is simple when you have a daily chart that has a big move higher, then a long consolidation pattern and another big move in progress. Simply take the low to high of the first move (on TWLO approximately $30) and add that amount to the low of the next move in progress. The low of the current move on TWLO is…Continue
Oil is setting up for the start of a 50% move in the next week. With the triangle pattern on the commodity chart coming to a head, oil will either have to breakout or breakdown. This will be the start of a monster move that every trader should be in. If oil breaks out of the triangle pattern, spot crude will head to $64. If oil breaks down out of the triangle pattern, it will head to $28. In other words, whatever the direction break, there is either 50% upside or downside. Catch this trade…Continue
Tempur Sealy International Inc (NYSE:TPX) is diving lower on a weak outlook. The stock is crashing after-hours, trading at $-17.75 (-23.84%). I am going to be focussing on a key support level tomorrow to buy Tempur Sealy. The level is $49.85. This is a double bottom level and a breach of $50, which will work as a spring to pop it back up. This could be good for $1-$3 upside tomorrow alone, should it trigger.
Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) jumped higher this past Friday morning after reporting solid earnings Thursday after-the-close. However, the party was short lived. After an initial…Continue
J C Penney Company Inc (NYSE:JCP) is flushing again today, following Friday's poor earnings report. The stock is down over 26% in the last week as all retailers are collapsing. Today, the stock hit a…Continue
This morning, leading agriculture company Archer Daniels Midland Co (NYSE:ADM) is plunging lower after reporting earnings. Today, the stock is falling by over 3.50 percent after reporting a Q1 sales…Continue
New all-time highs seem almost normal in this market. Countless stocks hit new-all time highs almost every day. This is exactly what has happened with Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD). Yesterday, Home Depot…Continue