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In the introduction to the last Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012:
Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2009. The actual situation of this market very closely parallels the 1974-1982 time frame. While the price bottom was made in 1974, the actual secular bull did not begin until the 1982 low. Our contemporary 2009 bottom and November 2012 low are playing the same role and function. While a great many market participants believe that this bull is "long in the tooth" and fret that the market is at or near the prior all time highs, a correct understanding of the actual context of the current market setup shows that instead we are yet in the early stages of a secular bull. It's also important to note that while skepticism regarding the market rally is not as negative as it was in 2010 and 2011, it is roughly comparable to the period of the 1982 breakout. Now as then, optimism is growing with a lingering backdrop of deep skepticism and fear. The general investing public is still largely ensconced on the safety of bonds or in cash.
Even as the US markets continue to hit fresh all time highs on a nearly daily basis, many commentators and analysts feel that the market is "high" and are fearful of buying. The misconception that the bull market started in 2009 has set up a fierce bull run that is currently targeting the 1695-1700 area on the SPX futures by early June and approximately 1760 by early August.
This edition of BBMR includes:
INTRODUCTION, including fundamental analysis.
Chart Analysis
Technical Indicators
BONDS
US DOLLAR
CRUDE OIL
SENTIMENT
A LESSON FROM JESSE LIVERMORE
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Posted by Steven Vincent on May 15, 2013 at 3:30pm 0 Comments 0 Likes
In the introduction to the last Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012:
ContinueMost analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2009. The actual situation of this market very closely parallels the 1974-1982 time frame. While the price bottom was made in 1974,…
Posted by Steven Vincent on April 29, 2013 at 12:00pm 1 Comment 1 Like
In the March 10 BullBear Market Report, I concluded that the US equities markets had ended the long term bear market that started in 2000 with the November 2012 low and had begun a new, secular bull market:
ContinueThis report comes down on the side of concluding that indeed a new, secular Bull Market has begun. While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave…
Posted by Steven Vincent on April 3, 2013 at 6:00pm 1 Comment 2 Likes
The last BullBear Market Report concluded that:
a new, secular Bull Market began in November 2012. While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave top could come in the vicinity of the 2007 highs, evidence is mounting that the 2011-2012 period was a stealth (E) wave ending a long term triangle and that recent price breakouts and changes to the technical character of the market mark the start of a very long term Major (V) bull market...
My current analysis…
ContinuePosted by Steven Vincent on March 25, 2013 at 7:30pm 0 Comments 0 Likes
One of the factors that might temper long term bullishness with regards to the current US equities market is that there currently appear to be no leading, dynamic economic growth sectors. In the early stages of a secular bull market, however, the dynamic growth sectors that will lead the advance are often unclear or unknown. The picture may be starting to clarify itself. One area that appears poised to take off and add a dynamic growth component while reducing costs throughout the economy…
ContinueStarted by alayoua mbark in Forex 16 hours ago. 0 Replies 0 Likes
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 24 2013 Will German GDP/IFO be the catalyst to take EUR/USD back above 1.3000? The EUR/USD finished the session sharply higher, mainly benefiting from…Continue
Started by alayoua mbark in Forex yesterday. 0 Replies 0 Likes
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 23 2013 FOMC minutes show members open to tapering QE The minutes from the April 30 and May 1 FOMC meeting showed that "a number" of officials…Continue
Started by alayoua mbark in Forex on Wednesday. 0 Replies 0 Likes
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 22 2013 Bernanke testimony, FOMC minutes, & European data to heighten EUR/USD volatility The EUR/USD finished the day moderately higher, closing…Continue
Started by alayoua mbark in Forex on Tuesday. 0 Replies 0 Likes
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 21 2013 Fed-Speak to dominate EUR/USD trading in coming days The EUR/USD was able to claw back a small portion of its losses suffered last week,…Continue
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