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Financial Market Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading
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Eventually, all bull markets will see significant corrections of price gains. During the last secular bull market from 1982-2000, SPX saw corrections of 14.18%, 35.94%, 20.36% and 24.51% on its way to a gain of 1419%.
Even the terrifying 1987 crash was nothing but a correction in a perfectly trending long term bull market.
In my view SPX and US equities in general are in the process of finishing a bull wave that started in November 2012. It is possible that the bull wave can see a significant extension from current levels before it completes, but analysis tends to support limited upside and substantial downside risk going forward. When equally viable Elliott Wave counts compete, the technician needs to examine the technicals, liquidity, sentiment and psychology of the market to see which count is better supported by underlying conditions. In my view there is substantially more evidence to support a correction than there is to support a bullish extension at this time. For this picture to change, we would need to see a fairly immediate and aggressive bull breakout move at the outset of 2015. Failing that, if we see a continuation of last week's selling, it is likely that a sizable correction will be nearby.
Amazon, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is currently trading at $58.29, +1.04 (0.14%). The stock has a clearly defined head and shoulder pattern that has formed over the last three weeks on the stock chart. Head and shoulder patterns are bearish indicators but ONLY trigger when the neck-line is broken to the downside. Amazon has not broken the neck-line yet. Watch closely in the coming days for a break and then short it hard to a calculated target of $725.00.…Continue
Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) is dropping sharply today after missing second quarter earnings estimates. Dollar General is currently trading at $80.19, -11.60 (-12.64%). Investors looking for a swing trade buy level, need to focus on the $75.00 price. There is huge support there, including a gap fill level.
Oil is reversing yesteday's bounce. Just 24 hours ago oil bounced higher on a rumor of Iran possibly being willing to cut oil production. This rumor was most likely an attempt by a hedge fund or big institutions to unload oil contracts prior to a bigger collapse. In my humble opinion, the drop today confirms that was exactly what was going on.
As oil hits the lows today, it tagged a support trend line. Take note in the chart below. Should it break this level, there is a sharp…Continue
Mylan NV (NASDAQ:MYL) took another beating today as the heat mounted over their Epipen price gouging. The company recently raised the price by 400% and it has now become a political firestorm. While the stock tanks, smart investors see opportunity. Mylan is not a one drug or Epipen pony. After a certain discount has been priced in, the stock will begin to rally again. The buy level based on technical analysis is $37.75. …Continue
Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) has pulled back into major support for investors looking to buy. The exact entry would be $18.50. The current price of Twitter is $18.62, -0.36 (-1.90%). The reason for the…Continue
Did you see the price action this past Friday in Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)? Both stocks were down sharply even though oil was up on the day. Any…Continue
Oil collapsed during the regular trading session and continues to fall overnight. Oil had hit a key 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level to the upside this past Friday, which signaled the likely fall.…Continue
It may sound crazy, but I assure you it is likely. Amazon just broke key support of a upward-sloping trend line and is now beginning a bear market move. The target is $600.00. If you think about it…Continue