Will the Deficit as a percentage of GDP get down to World War II levels by the end of the Obama Administration?
It's interesting that there has been virtually no attention paid to the forthcoming 4th quarter earnings reports. Apparently the most fundamental of fundamentals supposedly underlying the movement of stock prices is not a concern.
Just four companies—Apple, AIG, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America—together provided a majority of overall earnings growth among large-cap companies.
Here are some interesting datapoints which do not bode well for Q4 2012 earnings:
+ Earnings Growth: The estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 2012 is 3.0%. The Financials sector is
expecting the highest earnings growth for the quarter, while the Industrials and Information
Technology sectors are projected to see the lowest earnings growth.
+ Earnings Revisions: On September 30, the estimated earnings growth for Q4 2012 was 9.3%. The
Materials, Information Technology, and Financials sectors have recorded the largest reductions in
expected earnings growth during this time.
+ Earnings Guidance: For Q4 2012, 79 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 30 companies
have issued positive EPS guidance.
(Source: FactSet Earnings Insight)
There has been a growing negative trend in EPS guidance: