Tony Cherniawski's Blog – September 2009 Archive (3)

A friend of mine called me to say that another prominent technical analyst suggested that the Nikkei would go to zero in the next couple of years. While anything is possible, I had to ask the question, "Is it probable?"



The answer is "not likely." Instead, I took a look at the wave relationships and determined another scenario that suggests the Nikkei may live to fight another day.



Take a look and send feedback. I'll add to… Continue

Whatever happened to the Yen carry trade?



Japanese overnight interest rates are still lower that the U.S. (10 basis points versus 25 basis points). However, the three month Libor rates show that it has been cheaper to borrow dollars rather than yen. In addition, the yen has been appreciating against the dollar since 2002. So those having to buy… Continue

Yesterday we had a breakout above the symmetrical triangle in GLD. Today GLD gained even more, pushing up to what may be a head and shoulders neckline. Should it rise above 98.00, we may be seeing a buy signal of major proportions.



Let me step back a moment and say that in an earlier blog, I had mentioned the probability was good for a decline, or a false break, before the rally, "First the Pain, then the Gain." The market likes prove… Continue