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Tony Cherniawski
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- Mason, MI
- United States
- Blog Posts (6)
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sandra ilungahjh left a comment for Tony Cherniawski
Hello,How is everything with you, my name is Sandra i picked interest on you after going through your short profile on the dating site. I really want to have a good friendship with you. Beside i have something very vital to disclose to you, but I…
Steven Vincent commented on the blog post 'Buy the Dollar!'
Clearly the performance of the EuroYen shows that something has changed in the carry currency market. It's been flat as equity markets have continued to surge. I agree that the combination of excessive bearish sentiment and a tenuous dollar…
Steven Vincent commented on the blog post 'A Look at Probable Nikkei Targets.'
It's interesting that Japan does not seem to be really benefitting from the growth in China and the rest of Asia.
Blog posts by Tony Cherniawski
No Pain, Just Gain!
Yesterday we had a breakout above the symmetrical triangle in GLD. Today GLD gained even more, pushing up to what may be a head and shoulders neckline. Should it rise above 98.00, we may be seeing a buy signal of major proportions.Let me step back a moment and say that in an earlier blog, I had mentioned the probability was good for a decline, or a false break, before the rally, "First the Pain, then the Gain." The market likes prove the majority of investors wrong and this time I was fooled.…See More
A blog post by Tony Cherniawski was featured
Steven Vincent commented on the blog post 'No Pain, Just Gain!'
Thanks Tony. You may be right and the big breakout is at hand. I hope so! I do worry that the breakout is too well anticipated and that there may be too much fast money at work and not enough buyers left to take us over the top and beyond. Maybe my…
No Pain, Just Gain!
Yesterday we had a breakout above the symmetrical triangle in GLD. Today GLD gained even more, pushing up to what may be a head and shoulders neckline. Should it rise above 98.00, we may be seeing a buy signal of major proportions.Let me step back a moment and say that in an earlier blog, I had mentioned the probability was good for a decline, or a false break, before the rally, "First the Pain, then the Gain." The market likes prove the majority of investors wrong and this time I was fooled.…See More
Blog post by Tony Cherniawski
2 blog posts by Tony Cherniawski were featured
Steven Vincent commented on the blog post 'The Lazarus Effect'
Thanks Tony. Yes I too have been eying the VIX and I agree that we are likely to see a run to at least 30, which would correspond, in my opinion, to a substantive pullback in equities and the beginning of a strong bull run in the US dollar.…
The Lazarus Effect
Today we talk about the Rodney Dangerfields of the market. These are the indexes that just get no respect. I call them the Lazarus indexes. They are beyond the point of being beaten up. They have been left for dead among the majority of investors.The first Lazarus index is the VIX. Most commentators have long ago quit badmouthing it. They have simply given up and walked away because they don't believe it will come back. That is a big mistake. The VIX has declined down to a long-term trendline…See More
Blog post by Tony Cherniawski
Steven Vincent commented on the blog post 'The Golden Triangle. First the pain, then the gain.'
Gold has been somewhat resilient today as the dollar has rallied sharply and crude oil has been quite weak. Clearly a strong break in either direction is likely soon.
Tony Cherniawski commented on the blog post 'The Golden Triangle. First the pain, then the gain.'
I agree that 875 may provide the support needed to "reverse the rogue." My work shows that the short term trendline support may be broken below 935.
Steven Vincent commented on the blog post 'The Golden Triangle. First the pain, then the gain.'
Also note that the black trend line in the chart above is the secondary support line for the entire bull trend. It's currently around 875 which correlates with your target.
Steven Vincent commented on the blog post 'The Golden Triangle. First the pain, then the gain.'
Thanks for that Tony. I too am following the triangle pattern in gold closely. I actually see two triangles at play. The larger, primary triangle has already been violated to the downside. We also closed below the 50 EMA today. I have hedged my long…
The Golden Triangle. First the pain, then the gain.
Today gold declined below an important short-term support at 947 (magenta line) and came to rest at the bottom trendline of a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are continuation formations, but not without their foibles. That is why I inserted, "First the pain, then the gain." in the title. Having finished wave d, gold is now working out wave e, the rogue wave of the formation. This is the fake out wave that may shake out the weaker longs just before exploding to new highs.Think of the…See More
Blog post by Tony Cherniawski
Profile Information
- What's your current long term market stance?
- Bearish
- What's your current intermediate term market stance?
- Bearish
- What's your current short term market stance?
- Neutral
- What is your style of investing? (You can choose more than one.)
- Swing Trader, Trend Follower
- In which markets do you trade or invest?
- Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Precious Metals
- How long have you been trading or investing?
- 10-20 years
- Describe your level of market experience.
- Professional Investment/Trading Advisor/Analyst
- Have you read "Reminiscences of a Stock Market Operator?"
- Yes
Tony Cherniawski's Blog
A Look at Probable Nikkei Targets.
Posted on September 21, 2009 at 3:32pm 1 Comment 0 Likes
A friend of mine called me to say that another prominent technical analyst suggested that the Nikkei would go to zero in the next couple of years. While anything is possible, I had to ask the question, "Is it probable?"
The answer is "not likely." Instead, I took a look at the wave relationships and determined another scenario that suggests the Nikkei may live to fight another day.
Take a look and send feedback. I'll add to… Continue
Buy the Dollar!
Posted on September 21, 2009 at 1:52pm 1 Comment 0 Likes
Whatever happened to the Yen carry trade?
Japanese overnight interest rates are still lower that the U.S. (10 basis points versus 25 basis points). However, the three month Libor rates show that it has been cheaper to borrow dollars rather than yen. In addition, the yen has been appreciating against the dollar since 2002. So those having to buy… Continue
No Pain, Just Gain!
Posted on September 3, 2009 at 3:01pm 1 Comment 0 Likes
Yesterday we had a breakout above the symmetrical triangle in GLD. Today GLD gained even more, pushing up to what may be a head and shoulders neckline. Should it rise above 98.00, we may be seeing a buy signal of major proportions.
Let me step back a moment and say that in an earlier blog, I had mentioned the probability was good for a decline, or a false break, before the rally, "First the Pain, then the Gain." The market likes prove… Continue
The Lazarus Effect
Posted on August 26, 2009 at 6:54pm 1 Comment 0 Likes
Today we talk about the Rodney Dangerfields of the market. These are the indexes that just get no respect. I call them the Lazarus indexes. They are beyond the point of being beaten up. They have been left for dead among the majority of investors.
The first Lazarus index is the VIX. Most commentators have long ago quit badmouthing it. They have simply given up and walked away because… Continue
The Golden Triangle. First the pain, then the gain.
Posted on August 24, 2009 at 7:00pm 4 Comments 0 Likes
Today gold declined below an important short-term support at 947 (magenta line) and came to rest at the bottom trendline of a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are continuation formations, but not without their foibles. That is why I inserted, "First the pain, then the gain." in the title. Having finished wave d, gold is now working out wave e, the rogue wave of the formation. This is the fake out wave that may shake out the weaker… Continue
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- At 4:40am on October 14, 2011,
sandra ilungahjh said…
- Hello,
How is everything with you, my name is Sandra i picked interest on you after going through your short profile on the dating site. I really want to have a good friendship with you. Beside i have something very vital to disclose to you, but I found it difficult to express myself here, since it's a public site. I will be very happy, If you can get back to me, through my privet e-mail address (sandrailunga@ymail.com) So we can get to know each other better,and i will give you my pictures and also tell you more about me ok,
Sandra.
- At 8:18pm on August 10, 2009,
Steven Vincent said…
- Why not write something up and post it here in the blog? That would be most welcome. And/or call back in on Thursday to pick up where we left off. Either way looking forward to it. I always read your posts when I see that you have written something.
- At 3:47pm on August 10, 2009,
Tony Cherniawski said…
- I agree wholeheartedly about your most recent post on the Dollar and Gold. However, I believe that I have something to add regarding equities that is being overlooked by virtually everyone. Contact me if you wish to see my alternate view posted.
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