BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

Tony Cherniawski's Blog (6)

A Look at Probable Nikkei Targets.

A friend of mine called me to say that another prominent technical analyst suggested that the Nikkei would go to zero in the next couple of years. While anything is possible, I had to ask the question, "Is it probable?"

The answer is "not likely." Instead, I took a look at the wave relationships and determined another scenario that suggests the Nikkei may live to fight another day.

Take a look and send feedback. I'll add to… Continue

Added by Tony Cherniawski on September 21, 2009 at 3:32pm — 1 Comment

Buy the Dollar!

Whatever happened to the Yen carry trade?

Japanese overnight interest rates are still lower that the U.S. (10 basis points versus 25 basis points). However, the three month Libor rates show that it has been cheaper to borrow dollars rather than yen. In addition, the yen has been appreciating against the dollar since 2002. So those having to buy… Continue

Added by Tony Cherniawski on September 21, 2009 at 1:52pm — 1 Comment

No Pain, Just Gain!

Yesterday we had a breakout above the symmetrical triangle in GLD. Today GLD gained even more, pushing up to what may be a head and shoulders neckline. Should it rise above 98.00, we may be seeing a buy signal of major proportions.

Let me step back a moment and say that in an earlier blog, I had mentioned the probability was good for a decline, or a false break, before the rally, "First the Pain, then the Gain." The market likes prove… Continue

Added by Tony Cherniawski on September 3, 2009 at 3:01pm — 1 Comment

The Lazarus Effect

Today we talk about the Rodney Dangerfields of the market. These are the indexes that just get no respect. I call them the Lazarus indexes. They are beyond the point of being beaten up. They have been left for dead among the majority of investors.

The first Lazarus index is the VIX. Most commentators have long ago quit badmouthing it. They have simply given up and walked away because… Continue

Added by Tony Cherniawski on August 26, 2009 at 6:54pm — 1 Comment

The Golden Triangle. First the pain, then the gain.

Today gold declined below an important short-term support at 947 (magenta line) and came to rest at the bottom trendline of a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are continuation formations, but not without their foibles. That is why I inserted, "First the pain, then the gain." in the title. Having finished wave d, gold is now working out wave e, the rogue wave of the formation. This is the fake out wave that may shake out the weaker… Continue

Added by Tony Cherniawski on August 24, 2009 at 7:00pm — 4 Comments

Is something missing in analysis of equities?

First, a primer on Broadening Top Formations. The picture above is a reproduction from John Murphy's Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, pp 150-152 on The Broadening Formation. There are several names for this formation (Expanding Triangle, Five-Point Reversal, Megaphone Formation). This pattern is an unusual variation of the wedge formation and is relatively rare. Thus,… Continue

Added by Tony Cherniawski on August 11, 2009 at 9:18am — No Comments

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