Mark Lytle's Blog (59)

VIX monthly - Note the 'just completed' candlestick for October, and the indicators....

Added by Mark Lytle on October 31, 2009 at 4:14pm — 1 Comment

Microtrendlines update...end of day...

The $NDX ended up falling very hard today, and both it and the $SPX are at the trendlines now. Combine exponential trendline analysis with sentiment, and you have a high probability of a short term rally...

The sentiment chart is from :

http://www.sentimentrader.com/…

Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on October 29, 2009 at 12:01am — No Comments

$SPX and $NDX Exponential Microtrendlines...continued...

We are now approaching some intermediate scale trendlines, which I have highlighted. Today's low (so far) on the $SPX is almost on one now. Tomorrow or Friday could see a bounce as some indicators are getting oversold. The nature of any bounce that materializes will tell a great deal about the real condition of the market.…

Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on October 28, 2009 at 2:02pm — No Comments

$SPX micro trendlines generated from the seed points at 10/11/07, 3/17/08,and 3/9/09...

You can see the trendlines in this system, that I've highlighted, that have to fail for the bear to fully come back...
The Macro view will be seen later, assuming the decline continues, as on that scale this current change is barely visible...

Added by Mark Lytle on October 26, 2009 at 11:51pm — 3 Comments

Macro nodes and trendline for $SPX, using 10/10/02, 3/5/04, and 10/11/07 as seed dates.

Note that using these particular dates the March 2009 bottom was at a .500 node (the values on the 'X' axis) and the current date is also near a different .500 node (there are three of them for a given set of seed dates).…

Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on October 21, 2009 at 5:12pm — 4 Comments

Shorter term Exponential trendlines - $SPX - updated

You might remember this chart from last week. Well, it broke through the trendline it was banging against, and ran up to this new one. Let's see what happens here.

Added by Mark Lytle on October 15, 2009 at 10:32am — No Comments

A few charts, current as of today...

On the third chart down, referencing the chart of the QQQQ's, notice the Ultimate Oscillator and Chaikin's Money Flow plots. The latter looks like it could break down here, we'll see what happens Monday....a lot of neg. divergence as we hit the… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on October 9, 2009 at 7:20pm — No Comments

$SPX shorter term Exponential trendlines

This chart is one of the sources for my call yesterday that the market might falter here...You can see which trendline has held so far, it's highlighted. These trendlines are generated from the start and end points of the October 2007 through March 2009 decline...this is a shorter term basis then some of the other ones I've published here. They can be violated, but I give them the benefit of the doubt until they… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on October 7, 2009 at 11:50am — 1 Comment

Rally should falter around here...

We're attacking an already respected trendline, and as earlier conversations attest, there's a lot of overhead resistance not far above the top of the 23'rd of September..

Added by Mark Lytle on October 6, 2009 at 1:35pm — 3 Comments

Dollar ready to break out of bullish wedge near .25 node.

The Dollar Index bottomed, as far as I can tell, on 9/17/09 at a node value of .25554, nominal, which is 2.2% (((.25554/.25000)-1)*100%) away from ideal.

The action of the stock market, precious metals and the dollar are all driven by liquidity concerns, and the psychology relating to this. This is why they are tending to move somewhat together....

It should be noted that bullish wedges don't always produce fireball… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 29, 2009 at 11:51am — 1 Comment

$NDX Exponential Trendlines with high/low data plotted by Calendar Dates

Well, it's more attractive, and you can see the slight bend in the trendlines. They approximate to straight lines over shorter time intervals, which is what everyone is taught to do...

Plotting price logarithmically gets you closer to this, and is simpler to do. It might be a dominant process over very long time scales.

Added by Mark Lytle on September 25, 2009 at 1:56pm — 1 Comment

If the Elliott people should turn out to be right, and a wave 'C' is coming, where is resistance?

You can see the big overhead resistance for this rally, and should the market really fall here, there's very little existing below the old March '09 bottom. The largest resistance is just below 4000 on the DOW, and it ain't much....

Added by Mark Lytle on September 24, 2009 at 2:23pm — 2 Comments

Some $NDX charts...Do I hear a Bear growling in the distance?

The screenshot of 'Clickcharts' a U.K. based, free charting service shows their 'Trend Indicator', which purports to show, based on price and volume, whether buying or selling should predominate. Sort of a volume weighted price oscillator. See also, the hourly chart of the $NDX. Some indicators are falling below the center line. The two charts basically agree. Let's see what happens… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 23, 2009 at 11:08am — 8 Comments

Some market technicians possibly calling a top here...

I know that Steve Hochberg at Elliott Wave International is calling a top near here,

and here are two other sites talking about tops:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14518.htm

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13552.html

The second guy is using Fibonacci Time ratios, which are occasional useful, but I have found them too infrequently to be generally… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 20, 2009 at 12:09pm — 9 Comments

A little bit on $silver...

The latest candlesticks are topping patterns...

The exponential chart shows an 'X' axis value close to .50 and the price action close to the .618 retrace. Both of these are negative for a further rise for a while. Also the $Gold/ $Silver ratio is suggesting a top here...…

Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 10, 2009 at 1:14pm — No Comments

$USD at overlapping .25 major and .50 minor nodes...

As of yesterday, the $USD index had fallen below it's daily Bollinger Bands...We are in a window when the number of Dollar Bulls is extremely low. This is consistent with the fact that the dollar index is at a major .250 node (actual .25181) and a minor .500 node hits on the 10th of September. Also, there could be a maximum of pessimism as we approach the anniversary of 9/11...So there is a chance here, for a roughly synchronized pattern… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 9, 2009 at 11:26am — 4 Comments

The $SPX's RSI is in a channel...

Probably see another little top soon...

Added by Mark Lytle on September 8, 2009 at 7:25pm — 2 Comments

Exponential Trendlines and Nodes.

These are created by a rather complex formula and represents time as product of a series of logarithmic and exponential decoding steps. The $NDX is fighting a declining Magenta trendline, and the $SPX is up against two of them, one major (declining and red) and one minor(steeply declining, dashed, and dark blue) trendline. The $SPX is also in the proximity of a time value, near .500 (on the X-Axis)… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 8, 2009 at 12:48pm — 3 Comments

A few technical comments...

Adding to the bearish viewpoint, the weekly MACD on $VIX has crossed over, and the $SPX has fallen through the 'blue' trendline I drew the other day.

An additional and better confirmation of trend change would be seeing price action go below the August 17 bottom on fairly high volume...that means going below the horizontal magenta line I have drawn...

Added by Mark Lytle on September 2, 2009 at 12:30pm — 2 Comments