BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

Some $NDX charts...Do I hear a Bear growling in the distance?



The screenshot of 'Clickcharts' a U.K. based, free charting service shows their 'Trend Indicator', which purports to show, based on price and volume, whether buying or selling should predominate. Sort of a volume weighted price oscillator. See also, the hourly chart of the $NDX. Some indicators are falling below the center line. The two charts basically agree. Let's see what happens next....

We all know the Federal Reserve will always try to keep the markets up, by hook or crook, and I do mean crook. So let's see what they do with this...

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Comment by Steven Vincent on September 23, 2009 at 5:59pm
Well an intraday reversal from new highs on good volume and a bullish news backdrop is bearish action for sure. But similar events have been met with buying rather than follow on selling. If the bears seize on this and become very bearish very fast then that will be bullish from a contrarian pov. If this is met with skepticism and dismissed as an aberration then it would be bearish and I might be changing my market stance, at least for the short to intermediate term. Let's see how the week finishes out. Time to sit on the hands and let the market tell us what's what.
Comment by Mark Lytle on September 23, 2009 at 4:30pm
All that said, I do agree, we need to watch a bit more, it takes more than one day to constitute a trend change, we need to see a low, a lower high, and so forth before we're sure.
Comment by Mark Lytle on September 23, 2009 at 4:28pm
In any event, most of the push through on the trendlines I am showing you are distortions caused by the existence of the false priesthood of the Federal Reserve. Without that, the penetrations of the trendlines would have been much less severe, and much of it happened in the last two or three days in anticipation of some new 'magic' by the clowns at the Fed.
Comment by Mark Lytle on September 23, 2009 at 4:25pm
should read above, these are curved, not straight. My typing is atrocious.
Comment by Mark Lytle on September 23, 2009 at 4:24pm
All kidding aside, I know you are referring to the apparent breakout of a trendline. I understand what your saying, but my trendlines are calculated differently, and allow for some temporary extensions through them, and they can still be valid.


Notice the .500 timeline I have circled, that's where a lot of major changes can occur. Note also that the breakout through these trendlines is not as severe, because in real time, there are curved, not straight.
Comment by Mark Lytle on September 23, 2009 at 4:13pm
I dunno, I don't think I'm talking down the market, from the looks of today, I think it's doing that all by it's little self...But we'll see what tomorrow brings...It's now sitting back on my trendline and will probably bounce a little bit tomorrow.

Comment by Steven Vincent on September 23, 2009 at 2:45pm
Funny how perceptions work...I see sentiment as still heavily bearish. I'm not looking for a top until at least 80% of the analysts I hear and 80% of the articles I read are bullish and not trying to pick a top or talk down the market. THEN we will get some kind of a pullback.

As far as the NDX goes, here's what I see:

Comment by Mark Lytle on September 23, 2009 at 11:34am
Although you can't trade with Fundamentals, these comments by Mike Shedlock are just too interesting not to share:

Excerpt:

"The opinion that the market can and will continue to rise is becoming ever more widespread, and ironically the bulls ALL say the same thing, namely "everybody else is bearish".

Mutual fund (MuFu) managers are not bearish, that much is certain. At 4.2%, the the MuFu cash-to-assets ratio is one of the lowest in history, in fact lower than at the 2000 top, and only a hair above the 2007 low. Those stats (from a friend) are from July. Given the continued rally, MuFu cash on hand has probably decreased even more in August.

The Dow's dividend yield is now at the level of the the 1968 top and the September 1929 top. Good luck with that!"


http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/buy-dip-mentalit...

That's the link....

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