A possible re-evaluation here...
As of two days ago the $RUT and the $NDX were approaching their 1/8 and 1/4 nodes, respectively, on generally lower volume and smaller price ranges. This normally suggests a top. Today we are wandering away from those nodes in time, with no confirmation of a top. This failure may be telling us something, that something else is driving this rally, other than previous price action. If today doesn't produce a final high in these indexes, then everyone should becme very wary here, espeicially Bears. I see that the $RUT is now well past it's .62 retrace, and that is also significant...
I would add the sentiment is quite extreme which is still favoring topping action...but something should change rather soon to confirm this...Sentiment is not perfect either, and can peak quite early before a real decline starts...
Comment
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Comment by Mark Lytle on February 20, 2010 at 12:31am
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Comment by Steven Vincent on February 19, 2010 at 4:08pm
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Where do you get your sentiment meter?
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True, my analysis is also showing that we may not be topping here. There are various possible scenarios and this is a good time to be in cash until the market gives a strong signal.
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