BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

A couple of exponential nodes overlapping on the $NDX on Monday, the 28th of December...

Looking at the bottom chart we have a set of overlapping nodes (a .5000 and a 1.000) on December 28th relative to the A-B-C patterns I have labeled. This is only occurring on the $NDX, nothing similar is happening on the $SPX. The $SPX has it's own story, covered below. The $NDX chart (the one in the middle), though, is more interesting anyway, as it looks like that index is attempting a breakout through the trendline that has contained it. Where it stands at the moment, it has not yet achieved a confirmed breakout, as that happens only after a little more penetration then what's shown here. So the stage is possibly set for a resolution of the question of what's happening next. If the market doesn't reverse on Monday or perhaps Tuesday, we're probably going quite a bit higher for sure, but if it does reverse, then the existing trendline and the combined .5000 and 1.000 nodes would presumably have been active, and the Bearish case will come to the fore. Remember also that the $SPX has been, and is still under, a Bearish warning state for quite a while now...Note that the $SPX (the top chart) is 'resting' on it's key micro trendline instead of being limited on the upside by it. It will have to break down through it, for a correction to take place. I haven't shown it here, because of the complexity for the reader, but what I call 'Macro' trendlines from an older and longer term time series (from the '02 bottom to the '07 top) are squeezing the $SPX from the top, also. This is happening because these 'Macro' trendlines are rising, but at a slower rate then the supporting 'micro' trendlines shown in this post. The $SPX is therefore in a sandwich, and being forced to decide soon, which way it's going to go...Now we wait and see how it resolves....

Late Friday addition: I just happened to look at sentimentrader.com and notice the most bearish, short term sentiment reading I have ever seen on this site. I reproduce it here:

Fairly well supports the validity of what I have explained above...

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Comment by BullBearGirl on December 29, 2009 at 11:16am
Great posts, Mark - thanks.
Comment by Mark Lytle on December 25, 2009 at 2:54pm
For those that might want to see it, based on this main post, here are the $SPX 'Macro' trendlines:

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