As the S&P 500 hovers at its February 2011 high and the Dow toys with its May 2011 peak, many market participants are looking for an important top soon.  While I am certainly aware of some good arguments for a new bear plunge--in fact I've been favoring a major top in the first or second quarter of 2012 myself--I think it's worthwhile to examine the body of technical evidence that indicates that a run at the former all-time highs may be in the offing.

My "BullBear"…

HIGHER THAN YOU THINK, PART II



The jobs report came in better than expected and we got a pop above resistance that has held and even run throughout the day.  Overbought is becoming more overbought, which is very bullish.  Tape action and technical action and the overall setup tends to favor a run back to the 2007 high rather than a top soon followed by Wave E down.  Here's how I…

Even as rumors abound of a debt haircut deal between private investors and Greece, markets have started to correct from short and intermediate term overbought conditions.  Many pundits have already started to talk of a major top and no doubt the current round of selling will spur more to jump aboard the bear bandwagon.  While I tend to agree that a significant market peak is not far away, my current analysis leads me to conclude that the present decline is a minor episode and there is at…

From time to time I release the full text of my BullBear Market Report to the general public.  This edition from September 19, 2011 calls the subsequent moves in the major stock indices nearly exactly.  From there we got a move to a lower low followed by a strong corrective rally that has caught most market participants off guard.

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As investors once again hang on the monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve Board,…

Top we wont see again for a few weeks if turns here for DAX and S&P.

S&P…

Because of my frustrations with traditional EW I have developed a modified wave counting method which combined with pitchfork trend analysis. It shows a nice short coming up in next day or 2

I am working on a system which is a modified EW count which has had one count error since…

Just wanted to let everyone know that I will be at The Trader's Expo in Lagas. I look foward to meeting members of the Bull Bear Group and answering questions me on markets and my work with the RSI. Look for me at the Genesis Technologies/Trade Navigator booth on the trade show floor. If I am not there when you are, leave me a message and phone numberand I will contact you and arrange a time to meet.

The market got spooked by the collapse of a minor brokerage firm, MF Global. Perhaps an appropriate Halloween reaction of -2.5% occurred as the firm's demise was at least partially linked to losses stemming from the European debt crisis. Just two sessions earlier, markets spiked on news that a deal had been struck on Greek debt and the "recapitalization" (bailout) of European banks. At this time all of that spike move has been given back.  News that Greece is planning a referendum on its…

The crash which I called for in my June reports came a month later than expected and the wave count has developed very much as anticipated at that time.  In my favored count, SPX is nearing the end of its initial A wave decline of a large 3 part E wave which should end the bear market.

Here's my long term monthly SPX chart:…

Brazil's Bovespa stock market index closed at fresh lows today.  It's rally off the early July low was far weaker than that of most other major world markets.  A look at the chart shows that a significant level of support going back to October of 2009 was violated in today's selloff.

In fact, the index…

Last week SPX appeared to complete an abc sideways correction.  By Friday the index was heading back towards its lows and ended the day and the week just above critical support at the confluence of the 200 EMA and the uptrend from March 2009.  The setup is for a potential gap below this support zone on Monday, which could then trigger sell stops leading to a cascading decline.

Commodities continued to lead to the downside, with Crude breaking lower and the Agriculture and Grains…

Excerpted from the June 12 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH140):





Nominal Gold & Gold vs. Currency…

There are significant signals in the current market that a crash or meltdown scenario could unfold sometime in the next 1-2 weeks. Crashes are rare events and nearly impossible to predict, but many elements that could combine to produce a financial market calamity appear to be present at this time.

The video below reviews the current technical condition of the major world stock markets.  In it I examine each index in terms of the relationship between price and the uptrends from March…

(The following is an updated excerpt from the latest BullBear Market Report for BullBear Traders members):

It seems that Joe-the-Investor is finally listening to the contrarian arguments about downside risk; perhaps even some realization about the growing imbalance of weight favoring uncertainty on so many key mkt impacting considerations.

A broad bear market slide is more likely given the anemic US and global…

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