BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

Hochberg - helpful for what not to do

Steve Hochberg at Elliott Wave Int'l is really a useful lesson in how NOT to approach (or trade) markets.   Here is what I mean. He and the service (Short Term Update & their monthly report) are extremely bearish, and that has been true for nearly ever, and especially from the March 2020 lows. 

He has been harping on sentiment indicators for months (almost from the lows in late March 2020 too, amazingly!!).  Somehow a VIX > 80 , put/call ratios and AAII survey at bearish sentiment extremes didn't elicit a bullish call (or even 'cover shorts').

Nope, just 3 of 3 of 3 etc 'dead ahead' to the downside.

Here is where his dunder-headed approach offers a useful lesson.  Don't be like Steve....Social science (i.e. market analysis), consists of factors such as people's decisions, are not physics. 

And we don't have a billion years of history, or a million years of history, with the indicators he keeps citing.  We have a few decades (at most).  So, maybe this time the sentiment 30 year extreme that we know of doubles.  How long did the tulip bulb mania last? How long did the south sea bubble last?  Why can't things go on for another 3, 6 or whatever number of months?  I am not saying they will, I am saying that until the market exhibits some evidence that makes the bears case, why be so dogmatic?

Steve is truly useful for why dogmatism in the markets is bad tradecraft.  One should be dogmatic about risk control and position sizing (risk control).  But dunder-headed insistence like he shows constantly, is not bad analysis, it's not even analysis.  It's a total lack of analysis. It's whistling through the graveyard to make yourself feel better.

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Comment by John on July 18, 2020 at 12:07pm

Richard,

Yes, EWT, and Steven Hochberg, are dangerous and poor at their work.  Because they operate with such (very misplaced) confidence and sell their service to people who are trying to learn, they can easily be convincing.  Unfortunately they apply their market analysis methods in a non-rigorous way (as the kids would says, duh!) and their decades long horrible track record shows it.

At some point (writing this in mid-2020) when the market does sell off they will act like they called the exact top (they will humbly say something like they called it within a day, or a week).  They ignore that they were bearish the vast majority of days during the bull market from 2009 to 2020.

Comment by richard bloch on July 16, 2020 at 10:25pm

i must admit i was a member @elliotwave.com for many years...and they played into my bearishness...and i lost money because of their insistent dogmatism.because i followed their advice.

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