Featured Blog Posts (30)

Secular Long Wave Building Towards 2020 Final Top

(The following is the Introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, "Secular Long Wave Building Towards 2020 Final Top")

I've been maintaining for quite some time that the current bull market is the final 5th wave of a Long Wave that goes back to 1949 and that when it comes to an end it will represent a paradigmatic shift of multi-generational proportions. Financial,…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 18, 2019 at 1:30pm — 1 Comment

The Long Wave, the Slow Turn and the Mother of All Bear Markets

(This is the introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report)

As 2017 emerged into the following year I noted that the big cap indices had shown characteristics of a parabolic blow-off run since the November 2016 election. Technical analysts know that when a market is running persistently above trend, a significant mean reversion is…

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Added by Steven Vincent on January 16, 2019 at 10:00pm — No Comments

Evaluating the Potential for a Secular Market Shift: March 2018 BullBear Market Report

Evaluating the Potential

for a Secular Market Shift:…

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Added by Steven Vincent on March 27, 2018 at 7:30pm — No Comments

BullBear Market Report (January 2011)

Here's my recent analysis originally published for BullBear Traders members on 1/15/11 and updated through 1/26/11:

SUMMARY

Thusfar markets have proceeded pretty much as my analysis had anticipated. US equities are now fairly well confirmed to be in a major Wave 3 advance. Increasingly, signals are…

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Added by Steven Vincent on January 28, 2011 at 3:00pm — 1 Comment

THE EWI ARGUMENT: A Critical Analysis of Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave International (March 2009-Present) Part 1

THE EWI ARGUMENT:

A Critical Analysis of Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave International

(March 2009-Present)

PART 1

SUMMARY

In this article I analyze the recent work of Robert Prechter’s “Elliott Wave International”, evaluating…

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Added by Steven Vincent on January 5, 2011 at 3:30pm — 6 Comments

Quickie Sentiment Report

I spent my morning reading through various market blog and news sites. I do this from time to time to gauge market sentiment.

I found very few posts expecting a decline in equities. The few posts that were bearish were tentatively so. None were decidedly bearish. I have found recently that many long time bears have turned bullish in the last 3 weeks and now that a decline may be setting up they are sticking to their new bullish position.

I found no posts expecting a… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on November 8, 2009 at 4:52pm — No Comments

Stocks Selloff, Dollar Rally Imminent

I rarely make such pronouncements, but I think the evidence points to a substantial selloff in stocks and a very large rally in the USD commencing immediately. Commodities, including precious metals, should also participate in the downside.

I have been reluctant to counter trend trade since March, but since the uptrend is violated and there is a short term downtrend we can go ahead and put on a reasonable short position. My target is the 200 EMA on the SPX.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on November 4, 2009 at 9:12pm — 20 Comments

The BullBear Market Report Special Report

Today's intraday reversal in the equities markets follows a pattern that has been established of late of selling into rallies. Key support levels have been broken to the downside and without a late day recovery a close below those levels will likely usher in a significant pullback.

The dollar has also broken out of its descending wedge pattern. I was observing that the dollar was not selling off on the significant early strength in equities and was instead starting to push higher. I… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on October 26, 2009 at 1:32pm — No Comments

Rally Breadth Narrowing

The RUT:INDU Ratio chart shows that internal breadth has narrowed dramatically in the last two weeks of earnings season. The rally is being supported by a few big cap names (represented by the 30 DOW stocks in INDU) while interest in the broad market (represented by the 2000 stocks in the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index) has declined sharply. This is a dramatic contrast with earlier stages of the rally. Caution is warranted.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 22, 2009 at 12:30pm — 1 Comment

BBTS Trade Updates

Here's a favorite market aphorism that helps me stay on the right side of the market:

"When a market doesn't do what it's supposed to do when it's supposed to do it then it may be about to do the exact opposite in a big way"

Well, the action in the market over the last two weeks of earnings season fits the above description. Today's intraday reversal was a big yellow flag. I am not calling "the top" or suggesting that we get short but I am putting out the caution… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on October 21, 2009 at 11:50pm — No Comments

Breakout

After a shallow and brief pullback the markets have broken out again.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 7, 2009 at 8:00pm — No Comments

Inflation, Deflation or Growth? Markets Will Answer Soon

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

September 26, 2009

Markets are at an important inflection point and the inflation vs. deflation vs. growth debate may be resolved soon.

SUMMARY

All…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 27, 2009 at 5:30pm — 1 Comment

Join BullBear Trading Service!

The BullBear Trading Service provides members with swing trades on a short to long term basis. Details will be provided including entry, exit and stop levels and the technical and fundamental basis for each trade. Alerts will be sent via Twitter.

BBTS is free, however it is expected that if a trade is successful you will make a donation from your profits. I've adopted this model because I do not believe I should take money if you do not make money from my service.

Please… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on September 25, 2009 at 6:30pm — No Comments

SPX Update: Topping or Breaking Out?

While there certainly could be a top here I think that to call one at this point would be pure speculation and guesswork. Picking a top is not advisable. There is some evidence that we are seeing the acceleration of the bull trend rather than its fading.

The scenario remains unusually bullish. We have an upside… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on September 22, 2009 at 12:17pm — No Comments

Dollar and Precious Metals: Apocalypse Not Yet?

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

September 13, 2009

The recent move in gold and silver may be an important top and the corresponding decline in the US Dollar may be a bottom in the making. On the other hand...…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 14, 2009 at 1:24am — 1 Comment

Dollar Carry Trade?

This piece from FX Solutions I found to be a balanced explanation of the issue of the US Dollar as the new "Carry Trade" currency. I insert my own commentary in bold and bracketed. If you are interested in forex or the precious metals markets this is an important read.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 13, 2009 at 6:51pm — No Comments

Precious Metals Breakout, Fakeout or Shakeout?

Precious Metals Breakout, Fakeout or Shakeout?

Straight "To Da Moon" Is Not The Only Plausible Scenario

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

September 5, 2009

The recent move in gold and silver may be an important top, a decisive breakout or a prelude to a shakeout of weak hands…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 6, 2009 at 12:00am — No Comments

No Pain, Just Gain!

Yesterday we had a breakout above the symmetrical triangle in GLD. Today GLD gained even more, pushing up to what may be a head and shoulders neckline. Should it rise above 98.00, we may be seeing a buy signal of major proportions.

Let me step back a moment and say that in an earlier blog, I had mentioned the probability was good for a decline, or a false break, before the rally, "First the Pain, then the Gain." The market likes prove… Continue

Added by Tony Cherniawski on September 3, 2009 at 3:01pm — 1 Comment

Major Market Turning Point Dead Ahead (Part I)

Major Market Turning Point Dead Ahead (Part I)

A Transitional Period in Intermarket Relationships Will Likely Give Way to New Secular Trends

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

August 28, 2009

A pullback to support in equities is likely and could set up a long term buying…

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Added by Steven Vincent on August 31, 2009 at 1:00am — 15 Comments

The Golden Triangle. First the pain, then the gain.

Today gold declined below an important short-term support at 947 (magenta line) and came to rest at the bottom trendline of a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are continuation formations, but not without their foibles. That is why I inserted, "First the pain, then the gain." in the title. Having finished wave d, gold is now working out wave e, the rogue wave of the formation. This is the fake out wave that may shake out the weaker… Continue

Added by Tony Cherniawski on August 24, 2009 at 7:00pm — 4 Comments