7/28/11
OUT: ACTG, CE, DK, VICL, NEPT, ROSE, ZAGG, SPPI, WNR and ARIA
IN: TPX, KEYN
PROFIT ALERT: CLFD, HLX, PDS, VIFL, VRTS, WILN and ZAGG
ACTG, CE, DK, VICL, NEPT and ROSE stopped out yesterday.
Starting last Wednesday, with the big drop of TZOO and GENE, and the reversal of ATX, BAS, leading stocks has told us something was not right and sure enough, all of a sudden, it appears no stock is trending anymore with the exception of PDS, despite most market timing indicators still saying okay. As a result of this lesson, Alpha 20 Holds will consider additional criteria to limit reentry of positions at a rate of may be 1 to 2 positions a day.
7/29/11
OUT: None
IN: None
PROFIT ALERT: HLX, PDS
Still, there were quite a few breakouts with TOP Barchart Signals. As so many recent picks failed, they can be quite dangerous since most of them come with hefty one day gains. Alpha 20 Holds will take a break from new entries to evaluate.
8/1/11
OUT: VIFL, WILN
IN: None
PROFIT ALERT: CLFD, PDS, TPX, VRTS
VIFL and WILN stopped out Friday.
Only 6 of TOP 30 Alpha Stocks passed the Alpha 20 Holds Filter today. As such, the strategy is not entering new positions. However, given that there is a deal in Washington, there may be a non-stop buying rush as soon as the gate opens.
8/2/11
OUT: HLX
IN: HFC, MPEL, SIFY, GMCR, QCOR
PROFIT ALERT: PDS, TPX
Yesterday there were 18 Stocks with Top Signal and Alpha Weight of over 100. Out of the 18 stocks, 8 also appeared in the Top 100 List. Out of that 8 stocks, 6 retained the top signal. Out of the remaining 10 stocks, only 1 retained the top signal. Previously, by using the Alpha 20 Holds filter, the strategy would have taken notice of the rising stock before it achieved the top signal. So, the Aplha 20 Holds strategy has made a mistake last 2 week strayed into top signal stocks with insufficient alpha weighting. This mistake will not be committed again.
The stock market has dropped significantly. 2 more days of dropping will caused ROC to spike down hard and the market should reverse up. Today 10 out of TOP 30 Alpha stocks pass the Alpha 20 Holds Filter and the strategy enters new positions up to the 10 allowed currently by the Strategy.
8/3/11
IN: INTX
OUT: HFC, MPEL, PDS, TPX, VRTS
PROFIT ALERT: CLFD, KEYN, QCOR
8/4/11
OUT: None
IN: None
Profit Alert: GMCR, KEYN
Alpha 20 Holds will stop seeking out those lone wolves for now and will considered implement certain market timing criteria to stop reentry in Down Market.
8/5/11
OUT: SIFY
IN: None
Correction: CLFD, KEYN and QCOR stooped out 8/3. GMCR stopped out 8/4. Newly implement timing criteria prevent reentry at this time. Alpha 20 Holds currently has no positions.
8/5/11
IN: None.
OUT: SIFY
Correction: CLFD, KEYN and QCOR stopped out on 8/3. GMCR stopped out on 8/4. Newly implemented timing criteria prevent reentry at this time. Alpha 20 Holds has no current positions.
8/8/11
OUT: INTX
IN: None
Alpha 20 HOlds IN on INTX on 8/3/11. This was not probably recorded.
Obviously, Alpha 20 Holds is not allowed to play due to market conditions. Whether the stock market find a bottom soon or continue its move lower a lot depended on $VIX. If $VIX can retreat back to 20 from currently level of 39 rapidly, the Bull still have live left. Otherwise, it will confirm the Bear Market is here and lower low is still to come.
Tom Bowley compares current time to 2004 when the stock market spiked down 3 times and found footing the last time arround. This comparsion may not be valid for the reason that 2004 never seen $VIX over 23 and here we are $VIX is at 39.
Cash or Hedge Option now may be a bit too late and the risk here is the stock market will start rally soon after you exit as it is extemely oversold. It may be time to play the Rip Van Winkle Option and don't wake up too soon.
8/9/11
OUT: None
IN: None
Only 2 out of TOP 30 Alpha Stocks passed the Alpha 20 Holds Filter and both are new to TOP 30.
IWM:SPY is at .58 < 7 Day EMA at 0.601
SPY:TLT is at 10.61 < 7 Day EMA at 11.94
SPY:VXX is at 32.19 < 7 Day EMA at 44.65
Market Condition does not allow Alhpa 20 Holds reentry at this time.
8/10/11
OUT: none
IN: none
Futures down. So NO BUY Signal yet. Alpha 20 Holds is not permitted to play at the current market condition.
8/11/11
IN: None
OUT: None
Marking condition does not allow Alpha 20 Holds to play.
IWM:SPY is at .588 < 7 Day EMA @ .596
$SPX:TLT 1.03 < 7 Day EMA @1.03
SPY:VXX is at 3.19 7 Day EMA @ 4.02
The wait for a Buy Signal can be very long at this point as the marketing keep probing down and fear keep escalated as represented by VXX.
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