Next Overlapping Nodes on $NDX - 3/11/10

Comment

Comment by Steven Vincent on March 6, 2010 at 7:58pm

Here's the OEX:

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/cfxtemp/CFT0306_195640340.jpg

Comment by Steven Vincent on March 6, 2010 at 7:55pm

The important thing is that you cannot derive any real conclusions from closing price alone, which gyrates wildly all over the map. You have to smooth the data with a moving average. Even the short term 10 day MA is showing persistent fear, if PCR is an effective gauge of that. This is rocket fuel for another leg higher. When it bottoms yes there will be a selloff.

Comment by Steven Vincent on March 6, 2010 at 7:52pm

Total PCR 10 day MA:

Equity PCR 10 day MA:

Index PCR 10 day MA:

Comment by Steven Vincent on March 6, 2010 at 7:43pm

Here's another one with a 3 month window. They use the 20 MA though I like the 14 day.

Comment by Mark Lytle on March 6, 2010 at 7:41pm

The PCR data has anywhere from few days to a couple or three weeks before it would reflect any effects from the double exponential node... It may change over that time period...These wave derived maths are not 100%, but the double node is one of the strongest warnings...

Comment by Steven Vincent on March 6, 2010 at 7:28pm

Here's another view which tends to suggest the PCR is unusually high given the rally that we have had:

http://www.indexindicators.com/_charts/sp500-vs-put-call-ratio-equi...

Comment by Steven Vincent on March 6, 2010 at 7:26pm

Thanks for posting that. My PCR data for SPX is showing persistently high ratio in closing price and 14 day MA, which should keep the market moving higher. Not sure why the discrepancy.

Comment by Mark Lytle on March 6, 2010 at 12:56pm

Supporting sentiment data:

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