S.P update

2/11/11

8:00EST

ESH11:

Well, it pretty did (overnight session) exactly as I had thought; and it appears that the 15 minute trading bar with 260,000 contracts; by far the most contracts traded on a 15 minute bar on the March contract; was clearly a turning point.

The big picture

We failed to reach the up extension at 1330.25

Therefore the immediate move is down to the upper wall of the pattern at 1296.25

But before this move down to 1296.25 begins we should head back up

Now on the 180 minute chart; we developed something quite rare; a compression crossover on 2 similar floating OAV’s; the key crossover is at 1315.50 to 1315.75

Therefore the immediate move is up to the crossover and at the crossover we will know if we continue up; up being then to 1318.00/25 to 1319.00 (the current price of the 2 floating OAV’s)

Does 1322.25 stay intact as the high before the move down to 1296.25??

Doubtful but it could

The reaction at 1325ish (on the charts) is far more (potentially) powerful to the downside momentum than the current move down, but this could change on a strong break below 1309.00 to 1307.25

Is this the big move down (1202.00 to 1218.00) I’ve been expecting??

Hard to say; it depends on what occurs (potentially) at 1296.25

But clearly below 1280.00; there is a high probably that this is the move.

But one thing is for sure..

All the big moves (down) start this way; meaning from a pullback (1296.25) it develops into a correction and you never know when it does occur.

On the 11/8 move down from 1219.25 to 1165.00

The overnight session begin heading down (almost every night) before the major move occurred; I believe it occurred 5 out of 7 over night sessions;

This current market is beginning to behave the same.

In another 31 hours we should know exactly where we stand; because we’re trading in a dominant 49 hour up cycle. Reaching 1332.50 before or on the 31^st hour from the above time (hourly trading bars) cancels or negates the immediate move down as mentioned above