Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 08 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 08 2013

ECB's Draghi sees the Eurozone recovering in second half of the year

The ECB Governing Council decided to keep the main interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at their December monetary policy meeting. Speaking at the press conference following the meeting ECB head Mario Draghi commented on the considerations underlying the decision. The president suggested that inflation should fall below 2% in the coming months and assured that inflationary pressures should remain contained. He said that economic growth would remain weak in the “early part” of 2013 and recover very gradually, along with the improving situation on financial markets. The recovery would be supported by the ECB's accomodative monetary policy stance, better external demand and easier financial market conditions.

Mario Draghi commented on the the liquidity situation of EU banks, which recently repaid €140.6 billion of the €489.2 billion obtained through LTROs, which reflects the improvement in financial market confidence. He nevertheless urged EU officials to carry on with the reduction of “both fiscal and structural imbalances and proceed with financial sector restructuring measures” which should boost confidence further. When asked about the recent appreciation of the shared currency and whether it could hurt recovery, the ECB chief answered that it could be an indication that confidence in the euro begun improving. He added that the central bank would continue to closely monitor money market developments.
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2013-02-08 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Dec)
2013-02-08 13:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-08 13:30 GMT | United States. US Trade Balance (Dec)
2013-02-08 13:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Jan)


2013-02-08 05:17 GMT | Where have all EUR/USD bulls gone?
2013-02-08 04:44 GMT | Long-running EUR/CHF uptrend unlikely - HSBC
2013-02-08 03:25 GMT | Kiwi at 0.87 by year end - BNZ
2013-02-08 01:49 GMT | GBP/JPY off fresh 3-year highs below 148.00

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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.34161 LOW 1.33817 BID 1.33980 ASK 1.33987 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 01:14



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Potential is seen for break above the resistance at 1.3420 (R1) today and develop some recovery from the initial downtrend formation. In such scenario we would suggest next target at 1.3447 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.3474 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument has comfortably ranged and any further downside extension is protected now by the key support at 1.3371 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.3346 (S2) and 1.3319 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.3420, 1.3447, 1.3474
Support Levels: 1.3371, 1.3346, 1.3319

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GBPUSD
HIGH 1.57372 LOW 1.57046 BID 1.57234 ASK 1.57246 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 01:15



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers next resistance level at 1.5738 (R1). In case of market appreciation above that level our focus would then be shifted to the higher targets at 1.5754 (R2) and 1.5770 (R3). Downwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs on the downside below our next support level at 1.5715 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.5699 (S2) and 1.5681 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5738, 1.5754, 1.5770
Support Levels: 1.5715, 1.5699, 1.5681

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USDJPY :
HIGH 93.733 LOW 93.195 BID 93.239 ASK 93.244 CHANGE -0.42% TIME 08 : 01:16



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 93.58 (R1). Next interim target holds at 93.81 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 94.05 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 93.17 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective and start forming retracement formation. As a result our supportive meant at 92.93 (S2) and 92.69 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 93.58, 93.81, 94.05
Support Levels: 93.17, 92.93, 92.69

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Education | ECN Trading Forex Account | FXCC )