Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 01 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 01 2013

Monti: EU budget must support growth and jobs creation

Italian PM Mario Monti had a busy meeting agenda on Thursday, first speaking in Brussels with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, then flying to Berlin where he appeared at a press conference together with Chancellor Angela Merkel. In Germany Monti commented on the next EU long-term budget saying that it shouldn’t focus solely on austerity but rather on “boosting growth, jobs and social cohesion in Europe.” He also added that Italy’s contribution, the largest of all EU countries in 2011, is disproportional relative to the country’s wealth and that budget rebates should be reassessed to be more “transparent and fair.” European officials will begin negotiations on the 2014-2020 EU budget on 7-8 February.

A Greek credit default should not be discarded, Moody's rating agency stated on a report published Wednesday. With regards to the state of the Greek economy, projections are for the country to contract around 5% in 2013, differing by 0.5 bp from government expectations of 4.5%. The rating agency expects the contraction to run into 2014. As ekathimerini notes: "In its analysis on Greece issued on Wednesday, Moody’s argues that the risks that could sink the country’s economy and therefore its credit rating are still existent. These include the risks in the implementation of the second bailout program, exceptionally uncertain growth prospects, the political and social challenges the Greek economy is facing and the fact that the country’s debt is still considered unsustainable.
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Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-01 09:53 GMT | Germany. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
2013-02-01 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)Preliminar
2013-02-01 13:30 GMT | United States. US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
2013-02-01 15:00 GMT | United States. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-01 05:44 GMT | USD/JPY to trend higher - RBS
2013-02-01 04:57 GMT | AUD/USD threatens weekly lows around 1.0380
2013-02-01 04:35 GMT | EUR/JPY skyrockets above 125, highest in 33 months
2013-02-01 02:43 GMT | AUD/JPY stalling ahead of the 96 round


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.36329 LOW 1.35718 BID 1.36228 ASK 1.36232 CHANGE 0.34% TIME 08 : 05:45



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, it keeps immediate upside potential. Next hurdle is seen at 1.3633 (R1), break above it might extend gains towards to next targets at 1.3652 (R2) and 1.3671 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed between the 10 sma and 20 sma, where the market might face supportive measures. The breaking lower from the trend line support would open road towards to initial targets at 1.3580 (S2) and 1.3559 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3633, 1.3652, 1.3671
Support Levels: 1.3599, 1.3580, 1.3559

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.5877 LOW 1.58454 BID 1.58736 ASK 1.58746 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 05:46



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Current market installation is clearly states uptrend development on the medium-term perspective. Break above the local high at 1.5878 (R1) is required to generate new peaks and expose our intraday targets at 1.5895 (R2) and 1.5912 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to reduce long positions and that might stimulate corrective extension below the support at 1.5855 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest next initial targets at 1.5837 (S2) and then 1.5817 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5878, 1.5895, 1.5912
Support Levels: 1.5855, 1.5837, 1.5817

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USDJPY :
HIGH 92.263 LOW 91.605 BID 92.168 ASK 92.173 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 05:47



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Upside rally remains in power. As for technical levels, our next resistance level locates at 92.29 (R1). If market gains momentum and manage to overcome it, we expect further price acceleration towards to next targets at 92.51 (R2) and 92.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: We expect some consolidation ahead prior volatility increase due to the many macroeconomic data releases today. Possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 91.86 (S1) with next expected target at 91.64 (S2). Any further decline would then be limited to final support at 91.40 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 92.29, 92.51, 92.72
Support Levels: 91.86, 91.64, 91.40

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