thanks jos, i'm relatively new and trying to actually make money at this.
these comments are helpful. I thought john's short was very well timed, because the market was so overbought that no matter what the jobs number actually was, it was likely to sell. Again, he used some protective calls in case he was wrong, limiting his profit somewhat, but insuring his trading account so he could live to trade again if the market went the other way.
But it didn't at all contradict what stephen was saying at the time- he was waiting for a pull back!
thanks for the invite, I have no one to talk to, hubbie thinks i should trade penny stocks & I had to haul him into m broker because he thought they were stealing my money when Iwas writing covered calls.
Joe--I don't have time now to explain more than my 8:48 message but the spx short was based as I said on the market being short term overbought by every oscillator and ob/os indicator you can find. I use Decision Point service for facts(in fact that is where I saw
Steven's advisory ad. I went ahead and grabbed the one day profit on lulu of $9000 because it was down 2.77 on the opening andI have other parameters if a stock is down a certain % in one day I am ahead $26000 overall for the day--Steven just has a different approach- I guess it is fine for him--here is the pullback--where does he guess to jump in-at the gap closure?. If you like this style have your friends including Scott Davis et al them read my former messages my e-mail. Jmhtrader@yahoo.com
Joe, no I was not short when Steven advised for precisely the reasons I gave in my previous e-mail. The S@P was not overbought or oversold at that point. Your question say very soon and I am right and market sells off I have midpoint indicators(call it approx the middle of ob/os where I take my profit-I can't give you a complete tutorial in an e-mail. An example though is if you look at a chart of LULU you will see that it hit a high today of 123 and1/2 with an rsi of 81(12)--(my overbought parameter in this case) and I bought 30 July 16 puts. I am already tonight ahead $2200 as it sold off later in the day. I will close out probably at about rsi50-55. Your next question might be "What if it keeps going up?" I bought for $.40 oer contract 30 calls out of the money for a small insurance policy. Hope this helps--See the problem with chasing trends is tens of thousands of "traders" are doing the same thing. The ego tells them they can beat everyone else. that is why 90% of traders in the long run lose money. You must fight your gut feeling to join the crowd and do the opposite(with small insurance cost for protection. Share this with whomever you want. I have no website do not charge but enjoy after 30 years of this helping people if they are interested.
Joe--I don't mean to knock Steven or his intent. Iused to do what he is doing and many other strategies I have been trading my own account for more than two decades-my only source of income and made a decent living doing it. The principle is this --cut out all the chatter, opinions(yes, mine too) cnbc fundamentalists and most technical analysis. Buy low meaning when a stock or index is oversold( there are many ways to measure this(rsi, etc) and sell when the stock is over bought. The premise is based on human nature-you can liken it to a chain letter-those who get n first make the money--everyone slowly jumps in not because of value because of greed-the reverse is true as well-smart money sells high and the crowd gets progressively fearful as the market falls until the towel is thrown in. It works over and over(not perfectly)It is based on probailities The market two weeks ago was hugely oversold (Buy) and now we have had a huge runup to the most overbought I have seen in years,--SELL and/or sell short. It is as simple as that.
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