Shares of Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) are in trouble. The technical chart has one of the most powerful bear flag formations I have seen in the last year and it is likely near a major breakdown. The next wave of selling will be more powerful than the first, likely sinking Toll Brothers Inc as low as $40 before investors can start nibbling. The fundamental reason should be discussed as well. With the new tax plan in effect, home prices in many higher net worth states like California, New York and New Jersey will be dropping an estimated 10% or more. In addition, buyers in these higher end home states may think twice about buying, maybe even deciding to move to lower state income states. It is naive if investors think that a higher end home builder will not see an effect from this new tax plan killing off the SALT deduction.