h configuration. A weekly close below the 200 EMA and a lower low will put a downtrend in place.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) has broken its 9 year bear downtrend. Will it now retest the breakout? Will the retest be successful?
There was a recent IPO in the emerging Green Tech sector, battery maker A123 Systems (AONE). It's interesting that the stock has performed very well in spite of a selloff in the broad market. Is this a glimpse of the future New Technology Bull?
The CRB Commodities Index has gone less than nowhere in the last 4 months, has made a lower high and has broken down from a consolidation triangle. All of its moving averages are turing down and price is trading below them. If the Inflationist view were valid wouldn't we be seeing commodity prices in a clear uptrend? The DBC commodities ETF looks even worse, trading well below its 200 EMA.
Crude Oil has violated trend and come back to retest the break. Price would need to rally above the lower trend line soon in order to avoid the commencement of a downtrend.
Precious metals investors need to be aware that the technical scenario on gold as well as the broader market context makes the probability very high for a nasty reversal from a bull trap here. A failure back through the apex of the blue or green triangles will likely end the bull market in precious metals. Support at GLD 94 must hold. A break above 100 will initiate a new impulse leg higher.
The dollar is testing its downtrend and the downside break of the descending wedge failed to follow through. An upside breakout is likely to eventually occur. At this time there are a growing number of voices which are calling for the same. We may need to see a retest of the recent bottom to silence some of that bullishness before we get the breakout.
Let's look at some of the components of the US dollar index.
The Euro tested its uptrend from the March bottom and bounced. Note that it appears to have emulated the SPX with a "throw over" upside break of a rising wedge formation which may leave behind a bull trap if its trend is violated.
Is the British Pound leading the rest of the currencies down against the Dollar? The recent failed test of the 200 EMA is quite bearish.
The Austrailan dollar has also produced a "throw over" break of an ascending wedge and is threatening its uptrend.
The Canadian Dollar has broken trend and is now retesting the break.
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