BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

$NDX Microtrendlines hold, Macro fail, reverse situation for $SPX

This chart shows how faithfully (so far) that the $NDX has respected it's 'micro' trendlines:


The $NDX 'Macro' trendlines, however are pretty close to being exceeded, and arguably, have failed:


For the $SPX, it's the reverse, the 'Micro' trendlines are currently this:


This price action is probably only slightly being affected by the 'Micro' lines. Particularly, the light green line, which the price action is pretty much 'through'.

The 'Macro' situation is different:


This last chart shows heavy resistance (upward traveling, curved light brown line above price action), that is still right overhead...

Views: 57

Comment

You need to be a member of BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis to add comments!

Join BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

Comment by BullBearGirl on November 15, 2009 at 12:47am
Mark - thanks for the explanation.
Comment by Mark Lytle on November 14, 2009 at 11:38pm
For those new to this system, I will try to give a general explanation of how one orients themselves with these charts:

I'd say the charts are showing the advance so far is 'contained' in the trendlines. On charts I posted a few days earlier, I showed that we are also at a .500 node (on the $SPX). The combination of being contained within a set of trendlines and at a major node is a Bearish warning. It changes to a Bearish signal when and only when the price action turns down significantly on volume. One wants to see a pattern of lower highs and lower lows developing. This is what we are waiting for, we have the warning, what we're waiting on is a confirming signal...This hasn't happened yet....
If this signal doesn't materialize over a few weeks or so, the node will 'expire', this is a passive signal that says the bearish warning no longer applies.

This is a similar process and procedure that is used with trendlines and old fashioned Fibonacci time ratios...

Regards,
Mark L.
Comment by Peter Pettersson on November 14, 2009 at 10:15pm
"I think that the technical setup for a dollar rally may have failed. If so we will know this week. This would have far reaching implications."

That is certainly a possibility since USD prices decisively broke out of the falling wedge under heavy volume, but retraced the whole out-break and even made a new spike low a few days later. I think that Christopher Forgione has some good points in his comment. It is not only USA which is printing money, many countries has very low interest rates, large stimulus packages and some even QE, but that is only more reasons for stocks, gold, oil, etc to keep on rally, fear of losing the value of ones money is driving this rally as I understand it today. Anybody have any better explanation?
Comment by BullBearGirl on November 14, 2009 at 6:48pm
I would really appreciate more commentary on these charts, explaining whether they are bearish, bullish or neutral. Many thanks!
Comment by Steven Vincent on November 14, 2009 at 2:40pm
I think that the technical setup for a dollar rally may have failed. If so we will know this week. This would have far reaching implications. It may be that the August-November period in stocks was an upwardly biased consolidation period preceding another explosive upleg. Commodities, particularly base metals, appear poised to rally hard, following gold's lead. A dollar rally will need to materialize early next week or a breakdown out of the descending wedge pattern, which is very bearish, will lead to an accelerated move down to the prior lows.
Comment by Christopher Forgione on November 14, 2009 at 1:57pm
I'm not going to pretend to understand the nuances of the charting. But I think I do understand the ramifications of a continued weakness in the usd. How long can usd be purposely weakened while govt desperately reassures foreign investors that US is a safe and good investment? Is the chart suggesting that a reconciliation of the gap is coming soon? If we maintain course I'm concerned that the stock market, metals, and commodities will be the safe haven as opposed to fixed income vehicles. It's like a weird inverse world where folks in retirement need to be in stock market or will be wiped out. Unseen inflation is wiping out savings. Very confusing.
Comment by Peter Pettersson on November 14, 2009 at 12:53pm
Well, both Nasdaq-100 and Dow att significant Fibonacci retracement levels, 61.8% and 50.0%, S%P 500 just below 50%. Correction are usually a high probability at this levels, but trend change will take longer to confirm with lower highs and lower lows.

From a fundamental perspective with the new monetary policy of printing money and ultra low interest rates (ZIRP) and quantative easing (QE) prises might keep on rising until it stops, gold, oil, stocks have been doing just that after the Lehman crash. I do not know how it is going to play out, I will follow prices.
Comment by Mark Lytle on November 14, 2009 at 11:40am
I'll be out running around today...any questions that these might generate I will get to later tonight, when I get back in....Have a good day all....

Mark

Join BullBear Traders

 
Free 30 Day Trial
No Credit Card Required

SUBSCRIBE Here
  

Pay with Cryptocurrency and SAVE!

6 Months BullBear Trading

for $100

(regularly $120.00)

 

Steven Vincent's market analysis is published on:

Steven Vincent's opinion is polled every week for the Birinyi Associates
TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll

© 2024   Created by Steven Vincent.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service