The current reading of .159% (and falling) is well within normal parameters and not showing the least sign of increasing interbank credit risk.The TED spread fluctuates over time but generally has remained within the range of 10 and 50 bps (0.1% and 0.5%) except in times of financial crisis. A rising TED spread often presages a downturn in the U.S. stock market, as it indicates that liquidity is being withdrawn. The TED spread is an indicator of perceived credit risk in the general economy. This is because T-bills are considered risk-free while LIBOR reflects the credit risk of lending to commercial banks. When the TED spread increases, that is a sign that lenders believe the risk of default on interbank loans (also known as counterparty risk) is increasing. Interbank lenders therefore demand a higher rate of interest, or accept lower returns on safe investments such as T-bills. When the risk of bank defaults is considered to be decreasing, the TED spread decreases. The long term average of the TED has been 30 basis points with a maximum of 50 bps. During 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis ballooned the TED spread to a region of 150-200 bps. On September 17, 2008, the TED spread exceeded 300 bps, breaking the previous record set after the Black Monday crash of 1987. Some higher readings for the spread were due to inability to obtain accurate LIBOR rates in the absence of a liquid unsecured lending market.On October 10, 2008, the TED spread reached another new high of 465 basis points. (Wikipedia)
3-month LIBOR is generally floating rate of financing, which fluctuates depending on how risky a lending bank feels about a borrowing bank. The OIS is a swap derived from the overnight rate, which is generally fixed by the local central bank. The OIS allows LIBOR banks to borrow at a fixed rate of interest over the same period. In the United States the spread is based on the LIBOR Eurodollar rate and the Federal Reserve's Fed Funds rate. LIBOR is risky in the sense that the lending bank loans cash to the borrowing bank, and the OIS is considered stableas both counterparties only swap the floating rate of interest for the fixed rate of interest. The spread between the two is therefore a measure of how likely borrowing banks will default. This reflects risk premiums in contrast to liquidity premiums. (Wikipedia)
There are of course several long term bullish counts in which the move off the March 2009 low is the first wave of a new long term bull market and several long term bearish counts which favor the commencement of a bear market from current levels.
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