Mark Lytle's Blog (59)

A tale of two ETF's

Added by Mark Lytle on March 2, 2010 at 12:25pm — 5 Comments

What is this symmetrical triangle in the $INDU-$FTSE ratio warning us of?

Maybe it relates to this chart, courtesy of ClusterStock's chart of the day:

It might be that something will happen to either the U.K. or U.S. stock markets before the triangle completes in early July. As an example, look at this chart:

Although this chart highlights risk in Austria, any troubled country on… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on February 23, 2010 at 5:30pm — 12 Comments

Market rolls over a little bit late, but rolls nonetheless...

This roll was late, at .26517, fully 6% late.... On the X-axis, .25000 is the theoretical turn point...

I gave the market until Friday to roll over, it did peak on Friday...

It is possible that options expiration had something to do wih the delay...

Added by Mark Lytle on February 23, 2010 at 12:00pm — 1 Comment

A possible re-evaluation here...

As of two days ago the $RUT and the $NDX were approaching their 1/8 and 1/4 nodes, respectively, on generally lower volume and smaller price ranges. This normally suggests a top. Today we are wandering away from those nodes in time, with no confirmation of a top. This failure may be telling us something, that something else is driving this rally, other than previous price action. If today doesn't produce a final high in these indexes, then everyone should becme very wary here, espeicially… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on February 19, 2010 at 1:00pm — 4 Comments

Small rally maybe near it's end...

Using the important swing data points from the March '09 rally bottom

to the presumed Jan '10 top, We see a narrowing of the range of the high and low

data at the .125 (1/8) node and the .250 (1/4) node, for the Russell 2000

and $NDX, respectively. These numbers refer to the present values on

the 'x' axis. Important nodes differ by powers of two (1/8,1/4,1/2, 1,etc.)...

This means we could be at or near the top of the

smaller scale rally that started with the… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on February 17, 2010 at 5:00pm — 1 Comment

Another bounce coming, maybe a bit more substantial?...

There could be another bounce here, as the support trendlines have been 'just barely' exceeded, with hourly Stochastics turning up...I have watched these trendlines inumerable times tolerate a slight penetration and then force price action back..…

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Added by Mark Lytle on February 5, 2010 at 11:33am — 4 Comments

Getting closer to a more sustainable bounce...

Note that the $SPX is now just about at support from the trendline that rescued it back in July...the $NDX is close to, but not yet at, the equivalent place...

Added by Mark Lytle on January 28, 2010 at 12:22pm — 2 Comments

Weak market, quite a day!

Notice the upper chart of the $SPX. We have already breached the exponential trendline that has been the primary support for the rally from March (the trendline with the black arrow pointing to it). If we now go on to breach the deeper trendline (pointed to by the green arrow), then in my opinion the Bear has probably returned. Further confirmation will be there if we see an 'Elliott' 5 wave pattern in the decline.The light blue arrow shows the only correction that occurred since March that was… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on January 22, 2010 at 8:00pm — No Comments

Another clue...Fibonacci.

Along with my charts of a few days back, I have checked my more conventional Fibonacci spreadsheets and almost missed that the amount of time that the $NDX has spent rallying from the March '09 lows, as of 1/08/10, was exactly .618% of the duration of the crash from Oct '07 to that March low. We are only a few trading days beyond that, so it would still qualify as a Fibonacci turn if the markets broke down here. This is in addition to the exponential nodes we have just seen hit over the last… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on January 15, 2010 at 11:53am — 2 Comments

Another warning, from the Russell 2000

To the two nodes overlapping on the $NDX at the end of December, we now add another 1.00 exponential node on the Russell 2000. So we now have a cluster of nodes on two indexes over a fairly tight time frame relative to the long time periods that spawned them. This is again suggesting trend change is in the cards in the not to distant future.…

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Added by Mark Lytle on January 11, 2010 at 10:25am — 3 Comments

A couple of exponential nodes overlapping on the $NDX on Monday, the 28th of December...

Looking at the bottom chart we have a set of overlapping nodes (a .5000 and a 1.000) on December 28th relative to the A-B-C patterns I have labeled. This is only occurring on the $NDX, nothing similar is happening on the $SPX. The $SPX has it's own story, covered below. The $NDX chart (the one in the middle), though, is more interesting anyway, as it looks like that index is attempting a breakout through the trendline that has contained it. Where it stands at the moment, it has not yet achieved… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on December 25, 2009 at 1:00pm — 2 Comments

Hitting the roof again..

After some signs of weakness last week, the indexes are having their Christmas rally. This short term move is probably about exhausted as we hit the upward curving trendline again. But so far any confirmation of an end to the slow grind upward is not evident...

Added by Mark Lytle on December 22, 2009 at 2:53pm — 1 Comment

Dollar rally continues...markets weaken...

Notice that on the Microtrendlines chart, the $NDX did manage to strike the trendline (barely), but has formed a small double top...

A time to be alert...If the dollar rally gets real legs, the equities markets could have real problems...

I've been anticipating this for about 3 months, but we still are waiting on the needed verification....all eyes on the dollar...

For a version of this chart you can click on and… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on December 8, 2009 at 3:48pm — 1 Comment

$NDX having trouble reaching trendline...

This highlighted light green trendline has capped every advance in the last three months..now the $NDX is barely able to reach it, it seems...

Added by Mark Lytle on December 5, 2009 at 12:01pm — No Comments

Microtrendlines as of today (so far)

These are still being followed...

Added by Mark Lytle on December 1, 2009 at 10:15am — 4 Comments

Remember that the 17th and 18th were Fibonacci time points on the $SPX as called by Elliott Wave International..they may have worked...

Lets see if this decline proves more real and committed then some of the others....The $NDX Microtrendlines are still being followed faithfully...

Added by Mark Lytle on November 19, 2009 at 8:51pm — No Comments

$NDX Microtrendlines hold, Macro fail, reverse situation for $SPX

This chart shows how faithfully (so far) that the $NDX has respected it's 'micro' trendlines:

The $NDX 'Macro' trendlines, however are pretty close to being exceeded, and arguably, have failed:

For the $SPX, it's the reverse, the 'Micro' trendlines are currently this:

This price action is probably only slightly… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on November 14, 2009 at 11:30am — 8 Comments

Exponential Trendlines and Nodes, seeds from 10/2002 through 10/2007 - $SPX

Haven't shown these for a while, these exponential trendlines are of a larger order and presumably more resilient then the micro trendlines I've been showing lately. These confirm the topping action suggested by other methods/ indicators. Note the .500 time node we happen to be at in the top chart... That's one of the important warnings in this system of trend change...…

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Added by Mark Lytle on November 10, 2009 at 6:30pm — 11 Comments

Russell 2000 non-confirmation with the Dow

The non-confirmation by the current top of the Russell 2000 compared to the Blue-Chip Dow industrials, shows that risk appetites are collapsing...

Added by Mark Lytle on November 10, 2009 at 1:19pm — 2 Comments

If we are forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern on both indexes, here are the micro_trendlines to watch....

On the $SPX the highlighted green trendline will be at 1074.72, tomorrow, and for the $NDX the highlighted orange trendline will be at 1727.02. Both trendlines will normally be exceeded slightly before they will stop an advance. If they are exceeded by too much, then obviously something totally different is happening, and the markets have apparently not really topped...…