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Mark Lytle's Blog – September 2009 Archive (10)

Dollar ready to break out of bullish wedge near .25 node.



The Dollar Index bottomed, as far as I can tell, on 9/17/09 at a node value of .25554, nominal, which is 2.2% (((.25554/.25000)-1)*100%) away from ideal.



The action of the stock market, precious metals and the dollar are all driven by liquidity concerns, and the psychology relating to this. This is why they are tending to move somewhat together....



It should be noted that bullish wedges don't always produce fireball… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 29, 2009 at 11:51am — 1 Comment

$NDX Exponential Trendlines with high/low data plotted by Calendar Dates


Well, it's more attractive, and you can see the slight bend in the trendlines. They approximate to straight lines over shorter time intervals, which is what everyone is taught to do...

Plotting price logarithmically gets you closer to this, and is simpler to do. It might be a dominant process over very long time scales.

Added by Mark Lytle on September 25, 2009 at 1:56pm — 1 Comment

If the Elliott people should turn out to be right, and a wave 'C' is coming, where is resistance?


You can see the big overhead resistance for this rally, and should the market really fall here, there's very little existing below the old March '09 bottom. The largest resistance is just below 4000 on the DOW, and it ain't much....

Added by Mark Lytle on September 24, 2009 at 2:23pm — 2 Comments

Some $NDX charts...Do I hear a Bear growling in the distance?





The screenshot of 'Clickcharts' a U.K. based, free charting service shows their 'Trend Indicator', which purports to show, based on price and volume, whether buying or selling should predominate. Sort of a volume weighted price oscillator. See also, the hourly chart of the $NDX. Some indicators are falling below the center line. The two charts basically agree. Let's see what happens… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 23, 2009 at 11:08am — 8 Comments

Some market technicians possibly calling a top here...





I know that Steve Hochberg at Elliott Wave International is calling a top near here,



and here are two other sites talking about tops:



http://www.safehaven.com/article-14518.htm



http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13552.html



The second guy is using Fibonacci Time ratios, which are occasional useful, but I have found them too infrequently to be generally… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 20, 2009 at 12:09pm — 9 Comments

A little bit on $silver...





The latest candlesticks are topping patterns...



The exponential chart shows an 'X' axis value close to .50 and the price action close to the .618 retrace. Both of these are negative for a further rise for a while. Also the $Gold/ $Silver ratio is suggesting a top here...…



Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 10, 2009 at 1:14pm — No Comments

$USD at overlapping .25 major and .50 minor nodes...



As of yesterday, the $USD index had fallen below it's daily Bollinger Bands...We are in a window when the number of Dollar Bulls is extremely low. This is consistent with the fact that the dollar index is at a major .250 node (actual .25181) and a minor .500 node hits on the 10th of September. Also, there could be a maximum of pessimism as we approach the anniversary of 9/11...So there is a chance here, for a roughly synchronized pattern… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 9, 2009 at 11:26am — 4 Comments

The $SPX's RSI is in a channel...


Probably see another little top soon...

Added by Mark Lytle on September 8, 2009 at 7:25pm — 2 Comments

Exponential Trendlines and Nodes.



These are created by a rather complex formula and represents time as product of a series of logarithmic and exponential decoding steps. The $NDX is fighting a declining Magenta trendline, and the $SPX is up against two of them, one major (declining and red) and one minor(steeply declining, dashed, and dark blue) trendline. The $SPX is also in the proximity of a time value, near .500 (on the X-Axis)… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 8, 2009 at 12:48pm — 3 Comments

A few technical comments...

Adding to the bearish viewpoint, the weekly MACD on $VIX has crossed over, and the $SPX has fallen through the 'blue' trendline I drew the other day.


An additional and better confirmation of trend change would be seeing price action go below the August 17 bottom on fairly high volume...that means going below the horizontal magenta line I have drawn...

Added by Mark Lytle on September 2, 2009 at 12:30pm — 2 Comments

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