Mark Lytle's Blog – January 2010 Archive (4)

Note that the $SPX is now just about at support from the trendline that rescued it back in July...the $NDX is close to, but not yet at, the equivalent place...

Notice the upper chart of the $SPX. We have already breached the exponential trendline that has been the primary support for the rally from March (the trendline with the black arrow pointing to it). If we now go on to breach the deeper trendline (pointed to by the green arrow), then in my opinion the Bear has probably returned. Further confirmation will be there if we see an 'Elliott' 5 wave pattern in the decline.The light blue arrow shows the only correction that occurred since March that was… Continue

Along with my charts of a few days back, I have checked my more conventional Fibonacci spreadsheets and almost missed that the amount of time that the $NDX has spent rallying from the March '09 lows, as of 1/08/10, was exactly .618% of the duration of the crash from Oct '07 to that March low. We are only a few trading days beyond that, so it would still qualify as a Fibonacci turn if the markets broke down here. This is in addition to the exponential nodes we have just seen hit over the last… Continue

To the two nodes overlapping on the $NDX at the end of December, we now add another 1.00 exponential node on the Russell 2000. So we now have a cluster of nodes on two indexes over a fairly tight time frame relative to the long time periods that spawned them. This is again suggesting trend change is in the cards in the not to distant future.…

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