BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

Steven Vincent's Blog – June 2012 Archive (5)

Midcaps to Big Caps Ratio Confirms Bear Market

Here's yet another technical study which shows that we have been in a bear market since early 2011:

I'd been noticing relative weakness in the Midcaps so I decided to have a look.  Mids cleanly outperformed SPX since the 2009 bottom but the ratio topped in April 2011, making a secondary lower high in July 2011.  The bounce off the 2011 low was weak and a…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 28, 2012 at 2:00pm — 1 Comment

The Final Rally

The recent rally is in many ways comparable to the June 2011 rally.  The technical setup has turned out to be very, very similar.  The probabilities that markets will be chased higher on news this week does seem to be elevated, but this will almost certainly set up a magnificent shorting opportunity on a par with the July 2011 highs.  So far we have seen "sell the news" reactions on the Spain banking bailout and Greece elections news and there is a good possibility we will see the same this…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 19, 2012 at 1:14am — No Comments

Value Line Geometric Index Predicts Major Stock Market Top

Last week I posted analysis showing that the monthly RSI divergence which formed at the 2011 and 2012 highs is a very reliable indicator of a stock market decline of almost 28% lasting 11 months.  I continue to see many, many companion signals which confirm this.

The Value Line Geometric Index is showing a technical condition which has also been a strong indicator of major…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 16, 2012 at 10:00pm — No Comments

Bearish Monthly RSI Divergence 100% Accuracy Rate; Occurred at 91.6% of Stock Market Tops

Relative Strength Index is one of the most widely recognized and followed technical indicators.  The most common use of RSI is the identification of divergences:

Developed J. Welles Wilder, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements...According to Wilder, divergences signal a potential reversal point because directional momentum does not…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 9, 2012 at 10:00pm — 1 Comment

Global Financial Market Panic in Progress

"There is only one side to the stock market; not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side"  --Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

 

One year ago today I detailed to BullBear Traders members my reasons…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 3, 2012 at 6:30pm — No Comments

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