BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

Steven Vincent's Blog – May 2012 Archive (6)

June 2011: Recognizing the Start of a Long Term Bear Market

I turned long term bearish exactly one year ago today.  Below is the complete BullBear Market Report in which I accurately called the long term top.  While big cap US stocks did go on to a higher B wave high (which I also called in October 2011), global risk asset markets clearly made their primary top in February of 2011.

It's important to re-evaluate and check one's market position against the unfolding reality of the markets and the available data.  Currently, bulls are showing an…

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Added by Steven Vincent on May 30, 2012 at 3:30pm — 8 Comments

Is the Collapse of the Euro Imminent?



In the last EuroTracker report, I asked the question: "Will the Euro Collapse?"  I concluded that the available technical evidence strongly indicated that it would but that before that could occur there would be a rally.  We got that rally, though it proved to be much weaker than expected.

Now it's time to ask: "Is the Collapse of the Euro Imminent?".  Based on the available…

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Added by Steven Vincent on May 24, 2012 at 11:00pm — No Comments

Fractal Echos From 1987 and 2011 Reverberating in 2012

Pattern recognition is the primary task of Technical Analysis. 
 Determining and distinguishing between patterning and order on the one hand and noise and chaos on the other is the essence of good TA.

Analysis shows that markets have created prolific (though throughly unrecognized) Head and Shoulders topping patterns during the February to May 2012 time frame as well as during the period 2009/2010 to 2012 (also throughly invisible to most market participants).

In addition,…

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Added by Steven Vincent on May 19, 2012 at 10:00pm — No Comments

Facebook IPO May Break the Market and Initiate a Free Fall Crash



Let me start by clarifying something.  I am not saying that the market could crash spectacularly in the next few days and that in that event the Facebook IPO would be a major contributing factor.  I am not saying that.  The market is saying it.


Facebook boosts IPO size by 25 percent, could top $16 billion

NEW YORK/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) -
Facebook Inc increased the size of its…

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Added by Steven Vincent on May 18, 2012 at 1:30am — 3 Comments

Bullish Consensus Creates High Risk of Potential Near Term Global Financial Market Crash

High Risk of Near Term Global Financial Market Crash

  

At each juncture, I look at the available information as represented in the market price and technical data.  I approach the body of evidence without preconception and with an open "beginner's mind".  I see what I see.  I analyze.  I develop a set of probabilistic outcomes and then rank them. Then I write my report.  I simply report my…

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Added by Steven Vincent on May 14, 2012 at 9:00pm — No Comments

LONG TERM GLOBAL HEAD AND SHOULDERS STOCK MARKET TOP LIKELY IN PLACE

A bit of economic news sparked a minor rally on Tuesday.  The Dow touched a new 4 year intraday high and the financial news media celebrated the moment with banner headlines:

In spite of the fact that not one market index anywhere in the…

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Added by Steven Vincent on May 2, 2012 at 2:30pm — 2 Comments

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