All Blog Posts (425)

Noon Update: Markets Enjoy Float At Neutral To Positive As Dollar Moves Lower...Again

Markets continue to remain on the flat line as the dollar has floated lower. As we always say, lower dollar value gives the markets a bid. We are seeing this yet again today as the dollar gapped higher and has moved down to the flat line. Oil saw a very nice gap up only to sell off and go negative. However, due to the fall in the dollar, oil has moved back to the flat line. On the weakness in the dollar, gold has inched higher. Gold still remains around the $1,000 level. On the SPY chart, watch… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on September 15, 2009 at 12:14pm — 1 Comment

Dollar and Precious Metals: Apocalypse Not Yet?

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

September 13, 2009

The recent move in gold and silver may be an important top and the corresponding decline in the US Dollar may be a bottom in the making. On the other hand...…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 14, 2009 at 1:24am — 1 Comment

Dollar Carry Trade?

This piece from FX Solutions I found to be a balanced explanation of the issue of the US Dollar as the new "Carry Trade" currency. I insert my own commentary in bold and bracketed. If you are interested in forex or the precious metals markets this is an important read.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 13, 2009 at 6:51pm — No Comments

A little bit on $silver...

The latest candlesticks are topping patterns...

The exponential chart shows an 'X' axis value close to .50 and the price action close to the .618 retrace. Both of these are negative for a further rise for a while. Also the $Gold/ $Silver ratio is suggesting a top here...…

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Added by Mark Lytle on September 10, 2009 at 1:14pm — No Comments

$USD at overlapping .25 major and .50 minor nodes...

As of yesterday, the $USD index had fallen below it's daily Bollinger Bands...We are in a window when the number of Dollar Bulls is extremely low. This is consistent with the fact that the dollar index is at a major .250 node (actual .25181) and a minor .500 node hits on the 10th of September. Also, there could be a maximum of pessimism as we approach the anniversary of 9/11...So there is a chance here, for a roughly synchronized pattern… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 9, 2009 at 11:26am — 4 Comments

The $SPX's RSI is in a channel...

Probably see another little top soon...

Added by Mark Lytle on September 8, 2009 at 7:25pm — 2 Comments

Exponential Trendlines and Nodes.

These are created by a rather complex formula and represents time as product of a series of logarithmic and exponential decoding steps. The $NDX is fighting a declining Magenta trendline, and the $SPX is up against two of them, one major (declining and red) and one minor(steeply declining, dashed, and dark blue) trendline. The $SPX is also in the proximity of a time value, near .500 (on the X-Axis)… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on September 8, 2009 at 12:48pm — 3 Comments

Precious Metals Breakout, Fakeout or Shakeout?

Precious Metals Breakout, Fakeout or Shakeout?

Straight "To Da Moon" Is Not The Only Plausible Scenario

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

September 5, 2009

The recent move in gold and silver may be an important top, a decisive breakout or a prelude to a shakeout of weak hands…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 6, 2009 at 12:00am — No Comments

No Pain, Just Gain!

Yesterday we had a breakout above the symmetrical triangle in GLD. Today GLD gained even more, pushing up to what may be a head and shoulders neckline. Should it rise above 98.00, we may be seeing a buy signal of major proportions.

Let me step back a moment and say that in an earlier blog, I had mentioned the probability was good for a decline, or a false break, before the rally, "First the Pain, then the Gain." The market likes prove… Continue

Added by Tony Cherniawski on September 3, 2009 at 3:01pm — 1 Comment

A few technical comments...

Adding to the bearish viewpoint, the weekly MACD on $VIX has crossed over, and the $SPX has fallen through the 'blue' trendline I drew the other day.

An additional and better confirmation of trend change would be seeing price action go below the August 17 bottom on fairly high volume...that means going below the horizontal magenta line I have drawn...

Added by Mark Lytle on September 2, 2009 at 12:30pm — 2 Comments

Major Market Turning Point Dead Ahead (Part I)

Major Market Turning Point Dead Ahead (Part I)

A Transitional Period in Intermarket Relationships Will Likely Give Way to New Secular Trends

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

August 28, 2009

A pullback to support in equities is likely and could set up a long term buying…

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Added by Steven Vincent on August 31, 2009 at 1:00am — 15 Comments

The Lazarus Effect

Today we talk about the Rodney Dangerfields of the market. These are the indexes that just get no respect. I call them the Lazarus indexes. They are beyond the point of being beaten up. They have been left for dead among the majority of investors.

The first Lazarus index is the VIX. Most commentators have long ago quit badmouthing it. They have simply given up and walked away because… Continue

Added by Tony Cherniawski on August 26, 2009 at 6:54pm — 1 Comment

The Golden Triangle. First the pain, then the gain.

Today gold declined below an important short-term support at 947 (magenta line) and came to rest at the bottom trendline of a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are continuation formations, but not without their foibles. That is why I inserted, "First the pain, then the gain." in the title. Having finished wave d, gold is now working out wave e, the rogue wave of the formation. This is the fake out wave that may shake out the weaker… Continue

Added by Tony Cherniawski on August 24, 2009 at 7:00pm — 4 Comments

What's Up goldilocks? Asked Papa Bear waking up

"We have a heap of porridge, you might like some!"

Added by pm on August 12, 2009 at 8:48am — 1 Comment

My Trades

Short AUD.USD, NZD.USD, Crude Oil

Well I decided to put my money where my keystrokes are and follow my own advice. I went short the Australian and New Zealand Dollars and Crude Oil. Ask questions about the trade in the comments section if you have any. Or tell me I'm nuts if you think so! Here are the charts:…

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Added by Steven Vincent on August 11, 2009 at 11:00pm — No Comments

Is something missing in analysis of equities?

First, a primer on Broadening Top Formations. The picture above is a reproduction from John Murphy's Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, pp 150-152 on The Broadening Formation. There are several names for this formation (Expanding Triangle, Five-Point Reversal, Megaphone Formation). This pattern is an unusual variation of the wedge formation and is relatively rare. Thus,… Continue

Added by Tony Cherniawski on August 11, 2009 at 9:18am — No Comments

Back to the Future for the US Dollar: Addendum-The Japanese Yen

This is an addendum to the recent BullBear Market Report: Back to the Future for the U.S. Dollar http://seekingalpha.com/article/154866-back-to-the-future-for-the-u-s-dollar

Yen Carry Trade

Prior to the Panic of…

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Added by Steven Vincent on August 10, 2009 at 8:06pm — No Comments

Back to the Future for the US Dollar: Is it March 2009 for the Greenback?

Back to the Future for the US Dollar:

Is it March 2009 for the Greenback? The Dollar may soon confirm a secular Bear Trap reversal.

The BullBear Market Report

August 7, 2009

In the last BBMR we focused on the US Dollar and concluded that a major break of very long term support was imminent and that a…

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Added by Steven Vincent on August 9, 2009 at 2:30am — 3 Comments

GreenTechConnectForum

I am Chris Outwater, a proud member of “thebullbear”, and I just returned from the preliminary session of the GreenTechConnectForum in Pasadena. Steven asked me to write a few words for a GreenTech bubble blog. So, here it goes:

The goal of the forum and conference is to educate people about the Green industry and also to introduce Green entrepreneurs to potential investors.

The two hour session was filled with very good, although somewhat standardized, information for 100 or so… Continue

Added by Chris Outwater on August 3, 2009 at 1:19am — No Comments

The BullBear Market Report: From Bear Trap to Bull Market? The US Dollar is Key

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

July 25, 2009

A false breakdown has reversed sharply to new highs. Has a new Bull Market begun?

SUMMARY

Since the last BBMR on May 25th, the equities markets have made a top, established a new downtrend and then threatened to break down out of a head and shoulders formation. The break was rejected with a violent…

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Added by Steven Vincent on July 25, 2009 at 11:30pm — 1 Comment