BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

Tony Cherniawski
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  • Mason, MI
  • United States
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Profile Information

What's your current long term market stance?
What's your current intermediate term market stance?
What's your current short term market stance?
What is your style of investing? (You can choose more than one.)
Swing Trader, Trend Follower
In which markets do you trade or invest?
Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Precious Metals
How long have you been trading or investing?
10-20 years
Describe your level of market experience.
Professional Investment/Trading Advisor/Analyst
Have you read "Reminiscences of a Stock Market Operator?"

Tony Cherniawski's Blog

A Look at Probable Nikkei Targets.

Posted on September 21, 2009 at 3:32pm 1 Comment

A friend of mine called me to say that another prominent technical analyst suggested that the Nikkei would go to zero in the next couple of years. While anything is possible, I had to ask the question, "Is it probable?"

The answer is "not likely." Instead, I took a look at the wave relationships and determined another scenario that suggests the Nikkei may live to fight another day.

Take a look and send feedback. I'll add to… Continue

Buy the Dollar!

Posted on September 21, 2009 at 1:52pm 1 Comment

Whatever happened to the Yen carry trade?

Japanese overnight interest rates are still lower that the U.S. (10 basis points versus 25 basis points). However, the three month Libor rates show that it has been cheaper to borrow dollars rather than yen. In addition, the yen has been appreciating against the dollar since 2002. So those having to buy… Continue

No Pain, Just Gain!

Posted on September 3, 2009 at 3:01pm 1 Comment

Yesterday we had a breakout above the symmetrical triangle in GLD. Today GLD gained even more, pushing up to what may be a head and shoulders neckline. Should it rise above 98.00, we may be seeing a buy signal of major proportions.

Let me step back a moment and say that in an earlier blog, I had mentioned the probability was good for a decline, or a false break, before the rally, "First the Pain, then the Gain." The market likes prove… Continue

The Lazarus Effect

Posted on August 26, 2009 at 6:54pm 1 Comment

Today we talk about the Rodney Dangerfields of the market. These are the indexes that just get no respect. I call them the Lazarus indexes. They are beyond the point of being beaten up. They have been left for dead among the majority of investors.

The first Lazarus index is the VIX. Most commentators have long ago quit badmouthing it. They have simply given up and walked away because… Continue

The Golden Triangle. First the pain, then the gain.

Posted on August 24, 2009 at 7:00pm 4 Comments

Today gold declined below an important short-term support at 947 (magenta line) and came to rest at the bottom trendline of a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are continuation formations, but not without their foibles. That is why I inserted, "First the pain, then the gain." in the title. Having finished wave d, gold is now working out wave e, the rogue wave of the formation. This is the fake out wave that may shake out the weaker… Continue

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At 8:18pm on August 10, 2009, Steven Vincent said…
Why not write something up and post it here in the blog? That would be most welcome. And/or call back in on Thursday to pick up where we left off. Either way looking forward to it. I always read your posts when I see that you have written something.
At 3:47pm on August 10, 2009, Tony Cherniawski said…
I agree wholeheartedly about your most recent post on the Dollar and Gold. However, I believe that I have something to add regarding equities that is being overlooked by virtually everyone. Contact me if you wish to see my alternate view posted.

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