The Investor Lounge

If you have the patience of a saint and wait for the right time to invest for the long haul and then hold until the fat lady sings then this room is for you. Meet others here who are looking to buy low and sell high!
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  • Claire Gougeon

    Back to the question of what to invest in for the long haul. Two months ago I was satisfied with my investment strategy. Then I began to doubt it. And now, well, complete mistrust.

    I feel like the contented homeowner who hears a pop or drip downstairs and when they go to inspect it, discover that not only is the foundation damaged beyond repair, but the deterioration needed attention 10 or 20 years ago! Yeah, my house is still standing, heat’s running, but I am urgently looking for a new one. (I don’t own a house. I live in a van. My investments are my house).

    I'm fine not earning 10% returns. People should be well-compensated for productive work, not just for having money. A small reward for having saved. 1%? Bonds! In which countries? Not just Canada. Investing in the best players in this open market global economy: the countries in the least debt? 

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    Oh look! A list of my favourite countries. These ROIs are abysmal. Maybe because they're not inflated. Having my investments in something that isn't inflated is a good start, as we head into a deflationary correction. Some are even slightly negative! Is that how bad things have become? This is an accurate snapshot of reality?

    It's very possible.

    I wish I could invest my US dollars in some of the foreign government bonds from the above list, but I looked into it. There isn't an easy way to do it and even if it was possible, the cost may be prohibitive for my little nest egg.

    I don’t trust US cash due to the risk of inflation, although cash in general will be fine during the coming deflation, the US is in the red and the Fed's plan is unlimited spending. Doesn't seem like an ideal strategy for any business in that position. On the current trajectory, the US will go into default and hyperinflation will ensue once the government’s currency is no longer trusted.

    I wonder if I hold cash in the currencies of those countries, I wonder if that would be a low-cost equivalent to holding these foreign bonds. That's my favourite long-term investment strategy that I've come up with so far. In the meantime, gambling in the backwards-rigged casino that the stock market has become has been fun. I'd never do it if I didn't have Steven watching my back.

  • Steven Vincent

    Hi Claire.  Thanks for posting.  Yes, the only room that is actually in use on the site now is the BullBear Traders room.  Please feel free to repost your excellent comments there!

    https://www.thebullbear.com/group/bullbeartradingservice

  • Claire Gougeon

    Unable to reply to the general discussion so posting here for now. I can't keep up! So much to watch, and read. The Century of the self is interesting, I'm halfway through.

    The labour force participation rate was surprising to me. Every person over 15 is quite the labour market denominator! I would personally allow the 90 year olds off the hook :D But yes, labour force participation has been decreasing for decades now, and it looks like predominantly the effect of the aging population. Though full-time students take a chunk too. I can't find more in-depth statistics for the States, but here's a pretty good analysis from Canada, where we've seen the same general trend: 

    http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/other-reports/Can... from 2014. It is a global phenomenon.  Looks like a poor indicator of unemployment, but is more important, I believe, as it's tracking one of the key deflationary factors that are increasingly influencing the economy. It's interesting to hear Larry Fink compared the economy to a patient in surgery. Emergency stabilization. And he acknowledges that the consequences have yet to occur. Doesn't want to think about it yet.

    I hope that people in positions of authority are forward thinking about it, but so far there hasn't been any honest conversation with the public.

    I understand that other readers have a far more distrustful view of authority/government than I do. Your belief is that the virus is an excuse or was released in order for the current elite to maintain their position of power? That they will continue to inflate the non-market until the election? In order to keep Trump in power? Or switch to Biden?