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Permalink Reply by J CHAN on June 28, 2011 at 9:36am

 

The implementation of bearish reversal pattern previously was not successfull. When it was implemented correctly, it is determined to be too restrictive and would have caused premature exists.  For this reason, checking of bearish reversal patterned is dropped from the Alpha 20 Holds Filter.

 

A new secondary Profit Alert Filter is implemented with the following criteria:

         1.  For stock with closing price above upper Keltner limit, crossing below the upper keltner limit or 2 day EMA Close will trigger an alert.

         2.  For stock with RSI above 70, RSI cross back below 70 or 2 day EMA Close is falling will trigger an alert.

         3.  Any of the five bearish reversal patterns will trigger an alert.

 

Wheb a profit alert is trigger, it is suggested that either taking the profit by exiting the position or moving the intial stop 1% below yesterday close.

 

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on July 8, 2011 at 7:52am

 

The follwing criteria are to be added to the Alpha 20 Holds Filter:

 

   7.  RSI > 40

   8.  Close >  6 Days' Low

 

While these 2 criteria may be unnecessary for top singal alpha stocks, they may be needed with other traps.

 

The following criteria is added to the Profit Alert Filter:

 

   4.  For stock with closing price above 2.0 Upper Bollinger Band, crossing below 2.0 Upper Bollinger Band or 2 Day EMA is falling will trgger an alert.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on July 15, 2011 at 5:05am

 

No chagne to the filters themselves.  The action follows a stock appearing on the Profit Alert Filter is changed to the following:

 

Either :

    1.  Set Stop at 1.5% below yesterday low.

or

    2. Wait to the end of 1st hour of trading, if the stock trade at the low at the end of hour, sell it immediately, otherwise set stop 1% below the reactionary low of the 1st hour.

 

The Alpha 20 Holds Strategy will utilize Suggestion No 1 as the stop out criteria.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on July 15, 2011 at 6:21am

 

Today 12 out of 20 stocks for the VST Trap failed to meet the Alpha 20 Holds Filter Criteria. The turnover rate for the past week has been consistently over 4 or 5 stocks on a daily basis. VST Stocks just do not have the same resilency as the Alpha Stocks.  Enough testing has been done and all VST related traps are now dropped.

 

I also found that the TOP 30 Alpha Trap performed equally well as compared to the Top Signal Alpha Trap. As such, the Alpha 20 Holds Strategy  will start using the combination of the two instead of just the TOP Signal Alpha Trap.  The recent failure of BPAX, AEA and JVA clearly points out that some very hot stocks made it to the TOP 100 with top signals only to fail immediately.  Stocks that made it to the TOP 30 and stays there despite weakness (having a weaker signal) are to be respected.  JAZZ offers a good example of the resilency of the TOP 30s as its signal drop to below 60 the date before yesterday but bouncing back up to new high yesterday.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 15, 2011 at 1:09pm

 

For the high flying stock,  when PPO got very high, price still can goes higher despite PPO histrogram going lower.  In time like now, one has to worry about the risk and for this reason, one criteria is added today:

 

PPO Histrogram is not to fall more than 3 days in a roll.  When PPO Histrogram falled for 2 days, the 3 day will be confirmation to exit.  Alpha 20 Holds will exit GNET tomorrow if it does not jump soon enough.

 

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 24, 2011 at 8:46am

 

The following are changes to Alpha 20 Holds Strategy in an attempt to adopt to the current challenging market:

 

1. Maximium Postion to Hold is reduced to 10.  10 Stocks is to be held when there is a Buy Signal in place.

2. The 10 positions will be exited and reentered as long as a Buy Signal is in place subject to Alpha 20 Holds Filter and Profit Alert Filter.

3. A trailing stop of 11% will be maintained for any positions after initial entries.

4. All 10 positions will be exited when TheBullBear.cpm issued a SELL call and the Alpha 20 Holds Market Timing Criteria is not in total disagreement.

5. In down market, the Alpha 20 Holds strategy may hold an inverse ETF against IWM.

6. Barchart.com Signals will be ignored.  The stock select for entry or rentry  will be strictly the next available TOP 30 Alpha Stocks meeting the Alpha 20 Holds Criteria.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 25, 2011 at 7:09am

 

8/25/11

 

Instead of exiting all positions when the Market turns to a SELL Signal, Alpha 20 Holds will not reenter new positions and exit existing positions as warrented by Alpha 20 Holds and Profit Alert Filters.

By reverting to selection from TOP 30 Alpha Stocks, the strategy will be mostly in cash during down markets as only a few passes the Alpha 20 Holds Filter.  Today, only 5 stocks excluded GNET passed the Alpha 20 Holds Filter. 

 

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 29, 2011 at 6:17am

Rulle change for Profit Alert:

 

Instead of putting stop @ 98.5% of prior day low, the Strategy will exit position on PROFIT ALERT SIGNAL in down market immediately and exit position after confirmation on the following day with a lower close in up market.