IN-N-OUT

7/14/11

OUT: CCIX, JAZZ

IN: VVTV, ATX

PROFIT ALERT: HCCI, UPI and VHC

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Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on July 28, 2011 at 9:41am

7/28/11

OUT: ACTG, CE, DK, VICL, NEPT, ROSE, ZAGG, SPPI, WNR and ARIA

IN: TPX, KEYN

PROFIT ALERT: CLFD, HLX, PDS, VIFL, VRTS, WILN and ZAGG

ACTG, CE, DK, VICL, NEPT and ROSE stopped out yesterday.

Starting last Wednesday, with the big drop of TZOO and GENE, and the reversal of ATX, BAS, leading stocks has told us something was not right and sure enough, all of a sudden, it appears no stock is trending anymore with the exception of PDS, despite most market timing indicators still saying okay. As a result of this lesson, Alpha 20 Holds will consider additional criteria to limit reentry of positions at a rate of may be 1 to 2 positions a day.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on July 29, 2011 at 9:31am

7/29/11

OUT: None

IN: None

PROFIT ALERT: HLX, PDS

Still, there were quite a few breakouts with TOP Barchart Signals. As so many recent picks failed, they can be quite dangerous since most of them come with hefty one day gains. Alpha 20 Holds will take a break from new entries to evaluate.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 1, 2011 at 9:16am

8/1/11

OUT: VIFL, WILN

IN: None

PROFIT ALERT: CLFD, PDS, TPX, VRTS

VIFL and WILN stopped out Friday.

Only 6 of TOP 30 Alpha Stocks passed the Alpha 20 Holds Filter today. As such, the strategy is not entering new positions. However, given that there is a deal in Washington, there may be a non-stop buying rush as soon as the gate opens.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 2, 2011 at 9:36am

8/2/11

OUT: HLX

IN: HFC, MPEL, SIFY, GMCR, QCOR

PROFIT ALERT: PDS, TPX

Yesterday there were 18 Stocks with Top Signal and Alpha Weight of over 100. Out of the 18 stocks, 8 also appeared in the Top 100 List. Out of that 8 stocks, 6 retained the top signal. Out of the remaining 10 stocks, only 1 retained the top signal. Previously, by using the Alpha 20 Holds filter, the strategy would have taken notice of the rising stock before it achieved the top signal. So, the Aplha 20 Holds strategy has made a mistake last 2 week strayed into top signal stocks with insufficient alpha weighting. This mistake will not be committed again.

The stock market has dropped significantly. 2 more days of dropping will caused ROC to spike down hard and the market should reverse up. Today 10 out of TOP 30 Alpha stocks pass the Alpha 20 Holds Filter and the strategy enters new positions up to the 10 allowed currently by the Strategy.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 3, 2011 at 9:10am

8/3/11

IN: INTX

OUT: HFC, MPEL, PDS, TPX, VRTS

PROFIT ALERT: CLFD, KEYN, QCOR

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 4, 2011 at 9:57am

8/4/11

OUT: None

IN: None

Profit Alert: GMCR, KEYN

Alpha 20 Holds will stop seeking out those lone wolves for now and will considered implement certain market timing criteria to stop reentry in Down Market.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 5, 2011 at 9:14am

8/5/11

OUT: SIFY

IN: None

Correction: CLFD, KEYN and QCOR stooped out 8/3. GMCR stopped out 8/4. Newly implement timing criteria prevent reentry at this time. Alpha 20 Holds currently has no positions.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 5, 2011 at 9:18am

8/5/11

IN: None.

OUT: SIFY

Correction: CLFD, KEYN and QCOR stopped out on 8/3. GMCR stopped out on 8/4. Newly implemented timing criteria prevent reentry at this time. Alpha 20 Holds has no current positions.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 8, 2011 at 6:12am

8/8/11

OUT: INTX

IN: None

Alpha 20 HOlds IN on INTX on 8/3/11. This was not probably recorded.

Obviously, Alpha 20 Holds is not allowed to play due to market conditions. Whether the stock market find a bottom soon or continue its move lower a lot depended on $VIX. If $VIX can retreat back to 20 from currently level of 39 rapidly, the Bull still have live left. Otherwise, it will confirm the Bear Market is here and lower low is still to come.

Tom Bowley compares current time to 2004 when the stock market spiked down 3 times and found footing the last time arround. This comparsion may not be valid for the reason that 2004 never seen $VIX over 23 and here we are $VIX is at 39.

Cash or Hedge Option now may be a bit too late and the risk here is the stock market will start rally soon after you exit as it is extemely oversold. It may be time to play the Rip Van Winkle Option and don't wake up too soon.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 9, 2011 at 5:12am

8/9/11

OUT: None

IN: None

Only 2 out of TOP 30 Alpha Stocks passed the Alpha 20 Holds Filter and both are new to TOP 30.

IWM:SPY is at .58 < 7 Day EMA at 0.601

SPY:TLT is at 10.61 < 7 Day EMA at 11.94

SPY:VXX is at 32.19 < 7 Day EMA at 44.65

Market Condition does not allow Alhpa 20 Holds reentry at this time.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 10, 2011 at 9:34am

8/10/11

OUT: none