1/31/11
Closing Comments:
The markets are clearly not in tune with one another
Meaning the SPX and DJ-30 are quite different from the ES contract
Due to the after hours (last nights drop on the open)
Today
the DJ-30 retraced 40% of the big move down on Friday
the SPX retraced 44% of the big move down on Friday
the ES retraced 57% of the big move down
as such we have entirely different patterns
the SPX and DJ-30 are clearly pointing down
the ES is pointing up to 1294.75
I wasn’t impressed either way in terms of direction
Although I’m marginally biased to the upside (ES 1294.25 -1294.75)
Marginally
It could easily change
Time frames are still problematic
Only the daily chart nears any feasible time table
Crude:
If 92.84 stays intact as the high on the overnight
We should see a strong reversal back down (83.44 – 84.00) in the next few days.
Tags:
I am somewhat more bullish on SPX than you are but I agree that that can change quickly.
I agree that crude oil should end up being a nice short. Panic news driven moves tend to be sharply reversed.
Long Term
the DJ-30 reaches 14637.46
The Key is if the SPX stays above 1219.80 on the current move down..its a coin toss
if so it after this move down it runs up to 1373.85
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