BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

What is this symmetrical triangle in the $INDU-$FTSE ratio warning us of?





Maybe it relates to this chart, courtesy of ClusterStock's chart of the day:



It might be that something will happen to either the U.K. or U.S. stock markets before the triangle completes in early July. As an example, look at this chart:



Although this chart highlights risk in Austria, any troubled country on this chart looks interesting compared to the U.S. stockmarket. Take Italy, for example:



I have found it worthwhile to plot several of the troubled countries of europe against the American markets. When charted this way, all have shown a level of weakness roughly comparable to the weakness quantified by their CDS scores...

It could be that by July, a similar plot of the $FTSE vs the $SPX or DOW may show a similar droop as seen here in the Italy vs $SPX comparison. Note the negative divergence between the $SPX and the Italian market in the rally out of the March lows......

I would also add if Britain should start to go into default by mid-summer (not saying that it will, only that it's weaker than the U.S., and we have this symmetrical triangle formation), it's hard to believe that the U.S. wouldn't be too far behind, as the banking systems of the two countries are very interlinked, and exposed to similar risks.....

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Comment by Mark Lytle on February 23, 2010 at 7:47pm
Yes, that is what I would suspect would happen, for the ratio to increase......but if the exit from the triangle to the upside has the power often associated with this type of pattern, it would suggest something fundamental has changed with the British marketwhich probably weakens. What would that be? I say that because I can't foresee what would suddenly strengthen the U.S., with unemployment continuing to rise, and with individual states within the U.S. getting into ever deeper fiscal trouble.....

Several commentators of note are now lumping the U.S. in with Greece as a sure fire default. The only question is when....
Comment by Steven Vincent on February 23, 2010 at 7:40pm
The narrowing triangle just tells me that the Dow and FTSE have become more highly correlated over time since the March low. If the ratio were to draw a straight line across then the two would be perfectly correlated. From a bullish perspective, I suppose one would want to see the Dow outperform (in which case the ratio would be rising).

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