As the S&P 500 hovers at its February 2011 high and the Dow toys with its May 2011 peak, many market participants are looking for an important top soon.  While I am certainly aware of some good arguments for a new bear plunge--in fact I've been favoring a major top in the first or second quarter of 2012 myself--I think it's worthwhile to examine the body of technical evidence that indicates that a run at the former all-time highs may be in the offing.

My "BullBear"…

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HIGHER THAN YOU THINK, PART II



The jobs report came in better than expected and we got a pop above resistance that has held and even run throughout the day.  Overbought is becoming more overbought, which is very bullish.  Tape action and technical action and the overall setup tends to favor a run back to the 2007 high rather than a top soon followed by Wave E down.  Here's how I…

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Even as rumors abound of a debt haircut deal between private investors and Greece, markets have started to correct from short and intermediate term overbought conditions.  Many pundits have already started to talk of a major top and no doubt the current round of selling will spur more to jump aboard the bear bandwagon.  While I tend to agree that a significant market peak is not far away, my current analysis leads me to conclude that the present decline is a minor episode and there is at…

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From time to time I release the full text of my BullBear Market Report to the general public.  This edition from September 19, 2011 calls the subsequent moves in the major stock indices nearly exactly.  From there we got a move to a lower low followed by a strong corrective rally that has caught most market participants off guard.

 

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As investors once again hang on the monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve Board,…

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Source Link: http://www.thebullbear.com/profiles/blogs/will-the-euro-collapse

Will the Euro Collapse?

Trading a true currency collapse is a rare opportunity. Most market participants are familiar with the story of George Soros and his ride to prominence on the back of the collapse of the British Pound. Is it possible that a similar opportunity may present itself soon in the form of a collapse of…

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Excerpted from the June 12 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH140):





Nominal Gold & Gold vs. Currency…

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Excerpted from NFTRH137, this segment sort of spontaneously combusted as I was updating the technical and fundamental status for the precious metals sector.  The welling@weeden interview with Mark Lapolla, discussing familiar arguments for deflation, showed up in my inbox several times last week and also appeared at Zero Hedge.  Thus, I have to assume it made its way in no small degree into the public investor psyche - and…

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This week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole extrapolated the violent changes in the gold-silver ratio into an intermediate view of macro markets.  We reviewed topping structures across various commodities and importantly, gold's ratio to these commodities, as this is primary to the investment case for premier gold stocks, both producers and explorers.  Targets have been set…

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The Put/Call Ratio may be indicating that a short or intermediate term bottom is in place. We have seen two spikes to extreme levels beyond 1.2, the first of which resulted in an intraday reversal to a positive close and it appears that the same may happen today. Also, the 14 day moving average has breached the .95 area for the first time since the bull market began in March of 2009. Continue