BullBear Trading: Stock and Financial Market Technical Analysis

Michael J. Sykes
Michael J. Sykes
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  • Bell, CA
  • United States
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Michael J. Sykes's Discussions

Junior Miners and China

Started this discussion. Last reply by Steven Vincent Aug 5, 2010. 1 Reply

I noticed that the junior miners have recently begun outperforming the big boys.  I also came across this story today that the Chinese government wants to help its gold producers fund "overseas…Continue

The Bull is Too Young to Die!

Started this discussion. Last reply by Henry Thompson Nov 13, 2010. 6 Replies

I encountered a novel technical argument claiming the bull market will resume after this correction.  You can read the article by Adam Hamilton here: …Continue

US Sovereign Debt Downgraded

Started this discussion. Last reply by Steven Vincent Jul 14, 2010. 1 Reply

Discovered an Associated Press article yesterday reporting that a (the?) Chinese rating agency has just declared American sovereign debt to be less safe than that of China and 11 other countries. …Continue

Bullbear Market Report

Started this discussion. Last reply by Steven Vincent Sep 18, 2009. 1 Reply

Hello Steve,I was really looking forward to listening to your 9/17 report to hear your thoughts on the dollar and gold, which have been on the move. However, your embedded player is linked to your…Continue

 

Michael J. Sykes's Page

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Henry Thompson replied to the discussion 'The Bull is Too Young to Die!'
While similarities can be drawn between the Nikkei and S&P in terms of expecting long-term decline, Japan and the USA are not the same socially or economically. Reserve currency, manufacturing base, military expenditure, overseas debt,…
Nov 13, 2010
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Steven Vincent replied to the discussion 'Junior Miners and China'
I think that the vast underperformance of Junior miners relative to majors is a signal that we are not in wave 3 of the gold bull market but rather ending wave 1 and about to start wave 2 correction. After the correction I think scooping up miners…
Aug 5, 2010
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Junior Miners and China

I noticed that the junior miners have recently begun outperforming the big boys.  I also came across this story today that the Chinese government wants to help its gold producers fund "overseas acquisitions."  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-03/china-plans-to-help-bullion-producers-expand-overseas-central-bank-says.htm   Might this be fueling the rally of the…See More
Discussion posted by Michael J. Sykes Aug 4, 2010
1 Comment
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Michael J. Sykes replied to the discussion 'The Bull is Too Young to Die!'
Thanks for your response and pardon my late reply. I believe the Nikkei comparison is valid. I view that chart as providing evidence that conflicts with Mr. Hamilton's theory. If we define a bull market as a rally of at least X% without an…
Aug 4, 2010
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Steven Vincent replied to the discussion 'The Bull is Too Young to Die!'
Thanks to you guys for the great discussion. I would say that regardless of whether or not Mr. Hamilton's analysis correlates with past market performance, there is relatively little value in looking for today's answers in the past.…
Jul 21, 2010
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Bruce Matthews replied to the discussion 'The Bull is Too Young to Die!'
Hi Michael, I don't have data for the DJ going back to the early 1930's but we have a good surrogate in the deflationary collapse of the Nikkei 225 in Japan which started in 1989 - 90 and is still ongoing in my opinion. Maybe comparison…
Jul 21, 2010
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Michael J. Sykes replied to the discussion 'The Bull is Too Young to Die!'
Given that we have experienced a cyclical bull market, it seems to me that Mr. Hamilton's declaration in March of 2009 has already been proven correct. If his claim that cyclical bull markets have always lasted more than two years is true, it…
Jul 21, 2010
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Steven Vincent replied to the discussion 'The Bull is Too Young to Die!'
Great post Michael. Yes, had seen that piece and my reaction is similar to yours. You see a lot of this kind of analysis where past patterns are used to justify current expectations. Usually it is done to justify the bearish crash expectations by…
Jul 21, 2010
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The Bull is Too Young to Die!

I encountered a novel technical argument claiming the bull market will resume after this correction.  You can read the article by Adam Hamilton here:  http://www.zealllc.com/2010/spxlives.htmHe argues:  1)  the rally from the March low easily qualifies as a cyclical bull market rather than just a bounce, 2) In modern history, cyclical bull markets (even within secular bears) have always lasted at least two years.  3)  Therefore, the bull…See More
Discussion posted by Michael J. Sykes Jul 20, 2010
6 Comments
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Steven Vincent replied to the discussion 'US Sovereign Debt Downgraded'
Tough to know what to make of it. The dollar inflationists certainly jumped all over this. The dollar is going down but it hit major long term resistance and risk is back on at the moment. I think the sovereign debt matter will eventually be the…
Jul 14, 2010
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Michael J. Sykes replied to the discussion 'Why I think we could get a strong 2 - 6 week rally into and beyond earnings season'
I've noticed a pattern of strength during the last hour of trading for the last 5 or so sessions, which seems bullish.
Jul 12, 2010
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US Sovereign Debt Downgraded

Discovered an Associated Press article yesterday reporting that a (the?) Chinese rating agency has just declared American sovereign debt to be less safe than that of China and 11 other countries.  Here's a link:  http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100711/ap_on_bi_ge/as_china_debt_ratingsThe article states:  "Dagong, founded in 1994 to rate Chinese corporate debt, says it isprivately owned and pledges to make its…See More
Discussion posted by Michael J. Sykes Jul 12, 2010
1 Comment
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Michael J. Sykes replied to the discussion 'BullBear Market Report UPDATE'
I liked your latest BBMR "round table" report. I put in a limit order to short a stock etf (ERX) yesterday afternoon which was not executed because the market sank. It's looking like we'll get some bounce today though (based on…
Feb 9, 2010
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Bear Market Rally Theory

I am inclined to believe the theory of Charles Biderman, founder and CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research, regarding the recent strength of stocks (since March '09) which seems to conflict with weak global economic conditions: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQyFxBG6dhYThis is another reason we should support Ron Paul's legislation to audit the fed!See More
Blog post by Michael J. Sykes Jan 22, 2010
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Michael J. Sykes commented on the blog post 'Gold technical indicators'
Economic recovery should help stocks and hurt gold. In the event of economic deterioration, however, some of the money leaving stocks will flow into gold IMO. However, the USD could rally even more strongly for a while, causing gold to decline a bit…
Oct 31, 2009
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Steven Vincent replied to the discussion 'Bullbear Market Report'
Thanks for the feedback Mike. Thanks for alerting me to the upload error on the show...I'm uploading the correct file now. There were problems with the recording of the HD show thus no YouTube. I think the issues should be worked out and…
Sep 18, 2009

Profile Information

What's your current long term market stance?
Neutral
What's your current intermediate term market stance?
Bearish
What's your current short term market stance?
Bullish
What is your style of investing? (You can choose more than one.)
Trend Follower
In which markets do you trade or invest?
Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Precious Metals
How long have you been trading or investing?
20-40 years
Describe your level of market experience.
I'm learning but consistently making money
Have you read "Reminiscences of a Stock Market Operator?"
No

Michael J. Sykes's Blog

Michael J. Sykes

Bear Market Rally Theory

Posted on January 22, 2010 at 9:30am 0 Comments

I am inclined to believe the theory of Charles Biderman, founder and CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research, regarding the recent strength of stocks (since March '09) which seems to conflict with weak global economic conditions: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQyFxBG6dhY

This is another reason we should support Ron Paul's legislation to audit the fed!

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