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Elliott Wave :: Intermediate and Long Term Swing Trading
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Eventually, all bull markets will see significant corrections of price gains. During the last secular bull market from 1982-2000, SPX saw corrections of 14.18%, 35.94%, 20.36% and 24.51% on its way to a gain of 1419%.
Even the terrifying 1987 crash was nothing but a correction in a perfectly trending long term bull market.
In my view SPX and US equities in general are in the process of finishing a bull wave that started in November 2012. It is possible that the bull wave can see a significant extension from current levels before it completes, but analysis tends to support limited upside and substantial downside risk going forward. When equally viable Elliott Wave counts compete, the technician needs to examine the technicals, liquidity, sentiment and psychology of the market to see which count is better supported by underlying conditions. In my view there is substantially more evidence to support a correction than there is to support a bullish extension at this time. For this picture to change, we would need to see a fairly immediate and aggressive bull breakout move at the outset of 2015. Failing that, if we see a continuation of last week's selling, it is likely that a sizable correction will be nearby.
Black Swan Event: An unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB) may be the black swan no one is talking about. The European bank opened below a major triple bottom support level at new lows.
It has been widely said, that if that triple bottom support level broke, it would cause Deutsche Bank to spin out of control and into default. An event such as this would trigger a domino effect among other financial institutions, mainly…Continue
There is one simple reason why I am buying the 3x long biotech ETF $LABU into the stock market close today. There is a Presidential Debate tonight and biotech has been under pressure the last few trading days, afraid of what targeted attacks it would get from the candidates. Ultimately, there will be relief when it is over, not matter what is said. The fear of what may be said is always worse than the actual event, which means a sharp biotechnology rally tomorrow. This is literally a 1-3 day…Continue
Spot crude oil surged dramatically higher today after reports of a 14 million drop in inventories hit the wires. Spot crude oil is trading at $47.53, +2.03 (+4.46%). While a monster move, big money is talking about a major resistance level approaching at $47.75. Many pro investors and traders are looking for a potential short here based off the trend line connected between the recent highs (see the chart below). Also, institutional money is telling me that the up move in the last week…Continue
I am short Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). For those that clicked *Get Alert* you are in with me. It is in my portfolio, a verified swing trade with a short entry of $110.14. The current price is $105.70. For those that do did not opt into this trade, you will see it when I close Apple out, on my verified track record. I shorted specifically at the $110.00 price level because that was a technical resistance point on the stock chart. There was a major gap fill on the chart, plus on the day I…Continue
Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) has pulled back into major support for investors looking to buy. The exact entry would be $18.50. The current price of Twitter is $18.62, -0.36 (-1.90%). The reason for the…Continue
Did you see the price action this past Friday in Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)? Both stocks were down sharply even though oil was up on the day. Any…Continue
Oil collapsed during the regular trading session and continues to fall overnight. Oil had hit a key 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level to the upside this past Friday, which signaled the likely fall.…Continue
It may sound crazy, but I assure you it is likely. Amazon just broke key support of a upward-sloping trend line and is now beginning a bear market move. The target is $600.00. If you think about it…Continue